Opinion
Will new city council walk same pathways looking for a different destination?
November 29 2017 our new city council will debate probably one of the smaller capital budgets in years. The smaller capital budget is deemed necessary in a city with a declining population. Is it really what the city needs or will this only add to the exodus of residents to our fair city?
The 2019 Canada Games and maintenance will be the focus, most likely, but is it fruitful to just sit on our hands and wait for the growth period to return? Look outside our boundaries these past few years. The city declined in population while the province grew, bigger cities grew, smaller cities grew, towns grew, counties grew and villages grew.
Remember this past article:
The City of Red Deer lost about 1,000 residents last year. Some will suggest the greatest beneficiary of our outward migration was Blackfalds which increased by 700, then Penhold and Sylvan Lake.
Now comes huge plans for Gasoline Alley, new accesses, new traffic circles, 200 assisted living homes and something like 800 new homes. Will Red Deer now see their population decrease more with the migration of residents to Gasoline Alley?
We have seen big box stores like Princess Auto leave the city recently along with Greyhound Bus, add in the accounting firms, businesses, dealers, stores, hotels, restaurants, that could have been within city limits, but are operating in gasoline alley and paying county taxes, and residents could be next.
I read in an article that the Red Deer County gets 3 times as much tax revenue from Gasoline Alley as from all the agricultural land in the county. That is before this major expansion.
Gasoline Alley is along Hwy 2 south of 32 Street and it is siphoning money out of Red Deer. Why not learn from their successes and emulate it on the north side of Red Deer. Why not build a gasoline alley along Hwy 2 north of Hwy 11a?
We have something that Gasoline Alley does not have, Hazlett Lake. The city is talking about building an Aquatic Centre. What could be more appealing than an Aquatic Centre with a lake? Attracting stores, restaurants, hotels, gas stations, tourism industries and residents.
Hwy 2 is one of the busiest highways in the country, and Hazlett Lake is Red Deer’s largest lake and is highly visible from Hwy 2. Hazlett Lake could be a destination more popular than Gasoline Alley. Red Deer could get the tax revenue.
A little birdie suggests that our city is on a downward trend and is in survival mode. Hazlett Lake will be hidden behind industrial buildings, and forgotten except by a few hikers walking around in the area. It is too big a project for the city, it would require planning, some thought, perhaps a vision, but most of all it would detract from downtown.
So it is suggested that I forget about the potential commerce, the tourist dollars, the elevation of Red Deer from a shrinking town to a growing city. We should not learn how Lethbridge turned a man made slough into Henderson Park and became the 5th fastest growing city in Canada, but what do they know? Gasoline Alley is growing by leaps and bounds, but what do they know?
Blackfalds, Penhold, Sylvan Lake, Gasoline Alley, and Lethbridge are all growing while Red Deer shrank but what do they know? They all saw opportunities when they knocked and they were rewarded with growth, while Red Deer looked inward, ignoring the potential in Hazlett Lake, and said good bye to 975 more residents last year than they welcomed.
Perhaps it is time that the city woke up, stop blaming the province, the economy, the energy sector and looked for the opportunity sitting at their feet. Wake up, ok?
If the city keeps walking the same path, do they really expect to arrive at a different destination? The city says there is a lag time of 2 years for cities’ economies to be affected, will we be making the same decision as 2014 that meant a decline of almost a 1,000 residents in our population in 2016, our last municipal census? That saw a decline in revenues? Will they?
Whether we call our city a shrinking city or more politically correct a city with declining growth, it needs to be resuscitated. We need to be known for something except having a Lowes, a Home Depot, 2 Walmarts, bad air, high crime and no 50m pool.
Is this the time to change paths or do we sit on our hands and hope for the province to give us our city back?
I think we need to take our city back and make it appealing to new residents, businesses, and tourists everyday.
Crime
New Allegations In Migrant’s Subway Fire Murder Case Somehow Even More Depraved
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By Nicole Silverio
Authorities revealed new disturbing details Thursday about the illegal migrant accused of burning a woman alive on a New York City subway.
Sebastian Zapeta-Calil, a 33-year-old foreign national from Guatemala, is facing first and second degree murder and arson charges over the death of a woman set ablaze on the F train in Brooklyn on Sunday. A new criminal complaint alleges that Zapeta-Calil set the woman’s clothes on fire with a lighter and intentionally fanned the flames by waving a shirt around her, according to CBS News.
The victim has yet to be identified, though a medical examiner’s office concluded that she died from smoke inhalation and from severe burns, CBS News reported. Authorities said the suspect did not know or have any interactions with the unidentified woman, who is referred to as Jane Doe, before the incident.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) spokesperson Jeff Carter confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation Tuesday that the suspect is an illegal migrant who had previously been deported from the U.S. Carter said that border officials encountered Zapeta-Calil in Sonoita, Arizona, on June 1, 2018, and removed him from the U.S. back to Guatemala on June 7, 2018.
Police officers who were on patrol on the upper level began to investigate after they sensed smoke, New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said during a Sunday press conference. As they approached the scene, officers found the woman in the train car completely engulfed in flames, and immediately rushed to put the fire out as soon as they could.
Bodycam footage found that Zapeta-Calil stayed at the scene and watched the events unfold as he kept a lighter in his pocket. Witnesses later identified the suspect to authorities, leading to his arrest.
During the press conference, the police commissioner referred to the incident as “one of the most depraved crimes one person could possibly commit.”
Zepeta-Calil appeared in court for his arraignment Tuesday and is due back in court Friday, according to CBS News.
Business
Global Affairs Canada Foreign Aid: An Update
Canadian Taxpayers are funding programs in foreign countries with little effect
Back in early November I reached out to Global Affairs Canada (GAC) for a response to questions I later posed in my What Happens When Ministries Go Rogue post. You might recall how GAC has contributed billions of dollars to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, only to badly miss their stated program objectives. Here, for the record, is my original email:
I’m doing research into GAC program spending and I’m having trouble tracking down information. For instance, your Project Browser tool tells me that, between 2008 and 2022, Canada committed $3.065 billion to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The tool includes very specific outcomes (like a drop of at least 40 per cent in malaria mortality rates). Unfortunately, according to reliable public health data, none of the targets were even close to being achieved – especially in the years since 2015.
Similarly, Canada’s $125 million of funding to the World Food Programme between 2016 and 2021 to fight hunger in Africa roughly corresponded to a regional rise in malnutrition from 15 to 19.7 percent of the population since 2013.
I’ve been able to find no official documentation that GAC has ever conducted reviews of these programs (and others like it) or that you’ve reconsidered various funding choices in light of such failures. Is there data or information that I’m missing?
Just a few days ago, an official in the Business Intelligence Unit for Global Affairs Canada responded with a detailed email. He first directed me to some slightly dated but comprehensive assessments of the Global Fund, links to related audits and investigations, and a description of the program methodology.
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To their credit, the MOPAN 2022 Global Fund report identified five areas where important targets were missed, including the rollout of anti-corruption and fraud policies and building resilient and sustainable systems for health. That self-awareness inspires some confidence. And, in general, the assessments were comprehensive and serious.
What initially led me to suggest that GAC was running on autopilot and ignoring the real world impact of their spending was, in part, due to the minimalist structure of the GAC’s primary reporting system (their website). But it turns out that the one-dimensional objectives listed there did not fully reflect the actual program goals.
Nevertheless, none of the documents addressed my core questions:
- Why had the programs failed to meet at least some of their mortality targets?
- Why, after years of such shortfalls, did GAC continue to fully fund the programs?
The methodology document did focus a lot of attention on modelling counterfactuals. In other words, estimating how many people didn’t die due to their interventions. One issue with that is, by definition, counterfactuals are speculative. But the bigger problem is that, given at least some of the actual real-world results, they’re simply wrong.
As I originally wrote:
Our World in Data numbers give us a pretty good picture of how things played out in the real world. Tragically, Malaria killed 562,000 people in 2015 and 627,000 in 2020. That’s a jump of 11.6 percent as opposed to the 40 percent decline that was expected. According to the WHO, there were 1.6 million tuberculosis victims in 2015 against 1.2 million in 2023. That’s a 24.7 percent drop – impressive, but not quite the required 35 per cent.
I couldn’t quickly find the precise HIV data mentioned in the program expectations, but I did see that HIV deaths dropped by 26 percent between 2015 and 2021. So that’s a win.
I’m now inclined to acknowledge that the Global Fund is serious about regularly assessing their work. It wouldn’t be fair to characterize GAC operations as completely blind.
But at the same time, over the course of many years, the actual results haven’t come close to matching the programs objectives. Why has the federal government not shifted the significant funding involved to more effective operations?
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