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Alberta

Why the oilsands’ weaknesses are turning into strengths

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From the MacDonald Laurier Institute

By Heather Exner-Pirot

Global oil prices are recovering from a multi-year bust

Few industrial projects have been more maligned than Canada’s oilsands. It has been called tar sands, a carbon bomb, the “dirtiest oil on the planet.” It’s suffered through the shale revolution, the COVID-19 shutdown, and a torrent of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) divestment. Its grade of heavy oil has been discounted and shunned.

But despite the challenges, things are coming up roses. In almost every aspect of the sector that has looked weak in the past decade—costs, grade, carbon intensity—the oilsands are coming on strong, and poised to provide unprecedented revenue streams for Canadian public coffers.

Oilsands are known as “unconventional” oil, which is extraction from anything other than traditional, vertical wells. In northern Alberta, the expansive hydrocarbon resources are in bitumen form, a molasses-like consistency too heavy to flow on its own. It takes a lot of capital and energy to turn the oilsands’ oil into a product that can be transported, refined and used by consumers.

For this reason, the oilsands were seen in the early 2010s as an expensive form of oil, with high up-front costs and a high break-even price: up to USD$75/barrel for new oilsands mines. This made it difficult to compete with cheaper American shale, which came online at scale at the same time as the oilsands, to great chagrin in Calgary.

However, global oil prices are recovering from a multi-year bust, and new “in-situ” extraction technologies have greatly reduced oilsands recovery costs. Break-even prices now average less than USD$40/barrel, and BMO Capital Markets assessed in September that the average oilsands producers could cover their capital budgets and base dividends at USD$46/barrel. By contrast the average large U.S. producer requires USD$53.50/barrel. For new shale wells outside of Texas last year, it was $69/barrel.

Another advantage is that oilsands are low-decline, which means they have decades of inventory, or oil available to be extracted. Shale oil sites have declined as high as 50 percent in the first year. While the oilsands reap the benefits of past investments, shale producers need to continuously drill and invest in new production. (But they haven’t been of late: the U.S. oil rig count has fallen 21 percent since December 2022, largely because of new well costs.)

Another challenge for the oilsands has been its grade: “heavy” or dense, and “sour” or high in sulfur. Light, sweet crudes are easier to refine and have historically sold at a premium. The difference can be stark: at its worst in 2018, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil sold for USD$57 a barrel, compared to just USD$11 for heavy Western Canada Select (WCS).

But heavy oil has qualities that are desirable, even necessary for some refined products. Whereas light crude is primarily made into fuels, heavy oil is advantageous for plastics, petrochemicals, other fuels, and road surfacing: things we will still need in a post-combustion, net-zero world. Many American refineries are configured to process heavy oil. Because the U.S. produces virtually none itself, they depend on cheap Canadian sources.

Geopolitical factors are also bolstering heavy and sour oil. Recent production cuts by OPEC+, designed to lift global oil prices, have limited supply of medium and heavy sour grades, which matches the kind of oil the Biden Administration released in its big Strategic Petroleum Reserve sell-off last year. This has brought higher prices for heavy, sour oil, more good news for the oilsands.

As for the oilsands’ biggest Achilles heel, its carbon intensity, this is another weakness turning into a strength. The oilsands are geographically concentrated, with a small number of facilities producing large amounts of emissions. This makes them far easier to decarbonize than conventional oil, which needs huge fleets of rigs creating hundreds of emissions sources in order to produce comparable amounts of oil. Seizing the opportunity, the major oilsands producers are working together on one of the biggest carbon capture projects in the world, building a 400-km CO₂ pipeline that could link over 20 CCS facilities with a carbon storage hub in northeast Alberta. Small modular reactors are another option being explored to reduce emissions. It’s not easy or cheap, but it’s possible to reach net zero, which producers plan to do by 2050.

All of this is not just good news for the oilsands, but for Albertans and Canadians as well. In 2022, royalties going into public coffers from oil and gas extraction hit a record $33.8 billion; that’s more than all royalties from 2016-20 combined. The boost comes not just from higher prices but from Alberta’s strategy to charge significantly higher royalties—up to 40 percent—from oilsands facilities whose upfront development costs have been paid off and revenues are exceeding operating expenses.

A large number of facilities have already reached this threshold, and more are added each year. This flexible new paradigm of permanently higher royalties helps governments moderate the budget rollercoaster of volatile oil prices: nine times more at $55/barrel, and four and half times more at $120/barrel. Next year, when the TMX pipeline adds more than half a million barrels a day of capacity from the oilsands to new markets, the value of royalties will also increase, along with corporate taxes.

Of course, the oilsands still face headwinds from Ottawa, none bigger than a proposal to reduce oil and gas emissions by 42 percent (from 2019 levels) by 2030. Although the oil and gas sector has invested heavily in emissions reductions, and greenhouse gas intensity per barrel fell 20 percent between 2009 and 2020, there is no way to meet the new target without cutting production. S&P Global estimates that 1.3 million barrels of daily output will need to be slashed, which would be an existential threat to the sector. Fortunately, the political tide in Canada is turning in such a way that the oilsands could hang on long enough to see friendlier policies.

Finally, the oilsands remain unloved by investors, although the tide has been turning with higher prices. Their enterprise multiple (EV/DACF), a standard valuation formula, is on average 5.8x as of September and was even lower in 2022. This is much lower than the S&P 500, which has averaged between 11 to 16x in the last few years. In Calgary this has been called the Ottawa penalty box: the only logical explanation for their low valuation seems to be the lack of confidence investors associate with the Canadian energy policy landscape. At any rate, oilsands companies are currently free cashflow machines and are rewarding the shareholders they do have with share buybacks.

After nearly a decade on their back foot, the oilsands have reason for optimism. Lots of people still love to hate them, but they’re starting to rack up some wins.

Heather Exner-Pirot is the director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

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Alberta

Alberta’s methane emissions fall 52 per cent

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Alberta has cut its methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in half, showing how to reduce emissions and keep powering the world.

As global demand for energy continues to rise, Alberta remains one of the most responsible producers in the world. The province was the first in Canada to set a methane emissions reduction target for the upstream oil and gas sector, and its approach has won international awards and recognition.

This is the message Alberta’s government will take to COP 29. The Alberta approach is working. It is possible to reduce methane emissions and grow the economy, all while delivering the safe, affordable, reliable energy the world will need for generations to come.

According to the latest data from the Alberta Energy Regulator, Alberta has now officially reduced methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 52 per cent since 2014, even as production has continued rising. The province’s common-sense approach is reducing emissions, creating jobs and growing the economy without punitive federal regulations or caps.

“We do not need Ottawa to tell us how to reduce emissions. In fact, the federal government should learn from Alberta’s success. By working closely with industry and focusing on technology, not costly taxes or unrealistic targets, we can achieve rapid emission reductions while delivering the safe, affordable, reliable energy the world needs.”

Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas

Under Alberta’s equivalency agreement with the Government of Canada, the province is in charge of regulating methane emissions. Alberta’s approach is working closely with industry and focusing on achievable results, including early action programs like carbon offsets, implementation of strong provincial regulatory requirements in place for all facilities, and improved leak detection and repair. This is estimated to have saved industry about $600 million compared with the alternative federal regulations that would otherwise have been required.

Since 2020, Alberta has invested $78 million from the industry-funded Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction program to improve methane monitoring and management. Almost 15,000 well sites and facilities have been reviewed across the province, preventing nearly 17 million tonnes of emissions from being released.

Continuing this momentum, the province recently announced $15 million in funding for the NGIF Emissions Testing Centre to help companies test technologies free of charge in both laboratory and live settings, attract investors and get methane emissions reduction technologies to market faster. Alberta is also engaging with industry to develop a flexible, forward-looking path that will keep reducing emissions while supporting responsible energy production.

“Tourmaline, like other producers in Western Canada, has been diligently reducing methane emission intensity across our field operations, and we are targeting a 55 per cent reduction from 2020 levels by 2027. We operate a world-leading methane emissions testing centre (ETC) at our West Wolf Lake gas plant near Edson, Alberta. At the ETC site, the latest technologies to better measure and mitigate future methane emissions are being developed.”

Michael Rose, chairman, president and CEO, Tourmaline

Minister of Environment and Protected Areas Rebecca Schulz will travel to the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 29) from Nov. 10 to 16 to share Alberta’s success with the world. Alberta’s environment minister will use the largest global climate summit to promote the province’s effective approach to reducing emissions while keeping energy reliable, secure and affordable.

Alberta’s government is committed to working with national and international partners to advance shared interests that can lead to new opportunities for people and businesses around the world.

Minister Schulz will attend COP29 with one staff member and three department officials. Mission expenses will be posted on the travel and expense disclosure page.

Itinerary for Minister Schulz*

Nov. 10-11
  • Travel to Baku, Azerbaijan
Nov. 12
  • Attend Alberta delegation briefings and meetings on COP29
Nov. 13
  • Participate in panel on Alberta’s Methane Emissions Reduction success and other events
Nov. 14
  • Participate in panel on Alberta’s Industrial Carbon Pricing Leadership and other events
Nov. 15
  • Participate in panels on Canada’s Global Role in Carbon Removal, Securing a Reliable Energy Future and other events
Nov. 16
  • Return to Calgary

*Subject to change.

Quick facts

  • The Alberta Energy Regulator monitors, compiles and reports methane emissions data by facility type, production type and area. It releases the ST60B report annually to ensure the public and stakeholders have the latest information about methane emissions from Alberta’s upstream oil and gas sector.
  • Alberta carbon offset protocols resulted in more than 58,000 low- or no-bleed devices being installed, and more than 7 million offset credits have been serialized.
  • Alberta uses a combination of bottom-up and top-down measurement, monitoring and verification techniques as part of methane measurement compliance data.

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Alberta

39 percent increase in funding for RCMP instigates discussion about future policing for rural Alberta

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Alberta’s government will pay the 39% increase for one year and will begin engagement with smaller communities on their policing needs for the future.

Alberta’s government is temporarily freezing the amount rural municipalities are responsible for paying for front-line policing services in Alberta.

The province is responsible for providing policing services to municipal districts, counties and urban municipalities with populations less than 5,000. In response to rising rural crime, Alberta’s government announced increased funding for RCMP services in 2019 which helped create hundreds of additional RCMP positions across the province.

When these changes came into effect in 2020, the province also worked with Alberta Municipalities and Rural Municipalities of Alberta to create a shared funding model through the Police Funding Regulation. Now, due to higher costs from recent RCMP collective agreements, the cost for policing in these smaller communities will increase by 39 per cent, with no corresponding increase in the services provided. To assist municipalities with these new costs, Alberta’s government will pay the increase for one year and will begin engagement with them on their policing needs for the future.

“The expiring regulation would have municipalities seeing a 39 per cent increase in their costs – with no improvement in policing services delivered. We know this is not acceptable for many municipalities. This cost freeze will give rural municipalities the stability and predictability they need, and it will allow for meaningful engagement between the province and municipalities on equitable support.”

Mike Ellis, Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services

“Alberta’s government understands that such an increase in costs for service will be a challenge to our rural municipalities. With the costs frozen for a year, we look forward to a comprehensive review of the police funding model with our municipal partners. During our review, we will carefully consider all factors to ensure we provide an updated funding model that is sustainable.”

Ric McIver, Minister of Municipal Affairs

Municipalities are preparing their budgets for 2025, and those served by the RCMP under the Provincial Police Service Agreement can continue to expect the same level of service without the additional costs for one year. While these costs are shared between municipalities and the province, the province will pay a higher proportion of the costs next fiscal year, a total of $27 million, so that municipalities’ costs remain stable while they determine how to cover the increases on a forward basis and what the best model of policing is for their community.

The Police Funding Regulation introduced in 2020 was phased in over several years, with rural municipalities paying an increasing share of their policing costs each year for four years. Municipalities have been paying 30 per cent of front-line policing costs since fiscal year 2023-24. By sharing costs, the province has been able to afford the addition of many new RCMP police officers, programs and services over the past several years.

The Police Funding Regulation has been in place for almost five years, and with the significant cost increases coming from the federal government, the province will undertake a review to determine what improvements may be needed. While the regulation was originally supposed to expire March 31, 2025, Alberta’s government has extended it by one year to March 31, 2026, which will enable the province and municipalities to have fulsome conversations about future policing needs and models. More details about the comprehensive review and engagement opportunities for rural municipalities will be released shortly.

Quick Facts:

  • The Police Funding Regulation brought in a new funding model, which was phased in over several years, with rural municipalities paying an increasing share of their policing costs each year, reaching the intended 30 per cent in 2023.
    • They were charged 10 per cent starting April 1, 2020. This increased to 15 per cent one year later, 20 per cent the following year and finally 30 per cent starting April 1, 2023.
    • The initial funding model was based on 2018 costs to provide certainty and stability to municipalities.
    • After 2024-25, the municipal share will be required to be based on current policing costs, resulting in a proposed 39 per cent increase in costs for municipalities.
  • The Police Funding Model enabled a $235.4-million investment in policing over five years, adding 285 regular members and 244 civilian positions to enhance rural policing.
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