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What if Canada’s Income Tax Rate Was Zero?

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7 minute read

  By David Clinton

It won’t happening. And perhaps it shouldn’t happen. But we can talk.

By reputation, income tax is an immutable fact of life. But perhaps we can push back against that popular assumption. Or, to put it a different way, thinking about how different things can be is actually loads of fun.

That’s not to suggest that accurately anticipating the full impact of blowing up central economic pillars is simple. But it’s worth a conversation.

First off, because they’ve been around so long, we can easily lose sight of the fact that income taxes cause real economic pain. The median Canadian household earns around $85,000 in a year. Of that, some 13 percent ($11,000) is lost to federal income tax. Provincial income tax and sales taxes, of course, drive that number a lot higher. If owning a house is out of reach for so many Canadians, that’s one of the biggest reasons why.

Having said that, the $200 billion or so in personal income taxes that Canada collects each year represents around 40 percent of federal spending. In fact, in the absence of other policy changes, eliminating federal personal income tax would probably lead to significant drops in business tax revenues too. (I could see many small businesses choosing to maximize employee salaries to reduce their corporate tax liability.)

So if we wanted to cut taxes without piling on even more debt, we’d need to replace that amount either by finding alternate revenue sources or by cutting spending. If you’ve been keeping up with The Audit, you’ve already seen where and how we might find some serious budget savings in previous posts.

But for fascinating reasons, some of that $200 billion (or, including corporate taxes, $300 billion) shortfall could be made up by wiping out income tax itself. How’s that?

For one thing, many government entitlements and payouts essentially exist to make up for income lost through taxes. For example, the federal government will spend around $26 billion on child tax credits (CCB) in 2025. Since those payments are indexed to income, eliminating federal income tax would, de facto, raise everyone’s income. That increase would drop CCB spending by as much as $15 billion. Naturally, we’d want to reset the program eligibility thresholds to ensure that low-income working families aren’t being hurt by the change, but the savings would still be significant.

There are more payment programs of that sort than you might imagine. Without income taxes to worry about:

  • The $6.2 billion GST/HST credit would cost us around $3 billion less each year.
  • The Canada Workers Benefit (CWB) could cost $1.5 billion dollars less.
  • The Old Age Security (OAS) Clawback would likely generate an extra billion dollars each year in taxes.
  • The Guaranteed Income Supplement for low-income OAS recipients could save $4 billion a year.

Even when factoring in for threshold recalculations to protect vulnerable families from unintended consequences, all those indirect consequences of a tax cut could easily add up to $20 billion in federal spending cuts. And don’t forget how the cost of administering and enforcing the income tax system would disappear. That’ll save us most of the $11 billion CRA costs us each year.

Nevertheless, last I heard, $30 billion (in savings) was a long, long way from $300 billion (in tax revenue shortfalls). No matter how hard we look, we’re not going to find $270 billion in government waste, fraud, and marginal programs to eliminate. And adding more government debt will benefit exactly no one (besides bond holders).

Ok then, let’s say we can find $100 billion in reasonable cuts (see The Audit for details). That would get us close to half way there. But it would also generate some serious economic turbulence.

On the one hand, such cuts would require dropping hundreds of thousands of workers off the federal payroll¹. It would also exert powerful downward pressure on our gross domestic product (GDP).

On the plus side however, a drop in government borrowing of this scale would likely reduce interest rates. That, in turn, could spark private investment activities that partially offset the GDP hit. If you add the personal wealth freed up by our income tax cuts to that mix, you’d likely see another nice GDP bump from sharp increases in household spending and investments.

Precisely predicting how a proposed change might affect all these moving parts is hard. Perhaps the ideal scenario would involve 20 percent or 50 percent cuts to taxes rather than 100 percent. Or maybe we’d be better off by playing around with sales tax rates. But I’m not convinced that anyone is even seriously and objectively thinking about our options right now.

One way or the other, the impact of such radical economic changes would be historic. I think it would be fascinating to develop data models to calculate and rank the macro economic consequences of applying various combinations of variables to the problem.

But taxation is a problem. And it’d be an important first step to recognize it as such.

Although on the bright side, as least they wouldn’t have to worry about delayed or incorrect Phoenix payments anymore.

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Trump’s tariff plan replaces free trade with balanced trade. Globalists hate that.

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From LifeSiteNews

By Frank Wright

While globalists screech that Trump has descended into ‘madness,’ his ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan that has shocked global markets is actually rooted in the combination of two economic theories that argue for ‘balanced’ trade over ‘free’ trade.

We are used to seeing the effects of Trump Derangement Syndrome in the blue-haired, red-faced hysterics who call the President “Orange Hitler.” Yet the introduction of tariffs on “Liberation Day” has seen the constituency of the differently-saned explode in a fit of rage at this “tariff madness. 

As global markets “plunge,” Trump replied to critics that “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

“We have been treated so badly by other countries – because we had stupid leadership that allowed this to happen. They took our businesses, they took our money, they took our jobs,” he says, saying American wealth has been effectively “moved” abroad. Trump promised that this “will eventually be straightened out – and our country will be solid and strong again”. 

Taking Trump’s medicine

Is his remedy worse than the disease? MSNBC said the crash in global stock markets was the “cascading effect of stupid” tariffs imposed by Trump on U.S. imports. Britain’s Sky News came out swinging too, saying they were “the biggest assault on global trade since World War Two.”

Stocks in the USALondonEuropeChina and across Asia have “plummeted,” as the BBC and others have reported. The U.K.’s Financial Times said “political pressure” resulting from the painful “medicine” will mean “Trump’s tariffs won’t last long.” Yet the liberal bastion of The Guardian dared to suggest there may be a “masterplan” in “shaking up the global economy.” 

Looking beyond the hysterical headlines, one writer on SubStack – Tree of Woe – has read the book on “scaled tariffs” which explains the method in Trump’s so-called madness.

1. Trump delivers

Tree of Woe, who recommends the medicine of “muscular Christianity” to combat the sickness of our times, introduces his readers to the fact that Trump campaigned on: “…plac[ing] tariffs that would raise revenue, protect American manufacturing, and restore balanced trade to our global economy.” 

This was followed up on April 2 with the imposition of scaled tariffs – called “Liberation Day for American Trade” by Trump: 

As Tree of Woe notes, the reaction from the globalist media was exceptional – even for them: 

Soon after the unveiling of Trump’s executive order, the forces of neoliberal globalism orchestrated a counterattack of such rhetorical fierceness and economic malignity that it is virtually unparalleled in the history of fiercely malign economic rhetoric.

Anything seen as a threat to the liberal globalist forced consensus is branded as stupid, extremist or destructive. And so it was with the tariffs, whose aim is to replace imbalance and deepening debt with fair trade – and sustainable prosperity.

2. Theoretical basis for tariffs

Woe then shows how a book on economics provides the “theoretical basis for the Liberation Day tariffs.” 

The book is called “Balanced Trade: Ending the Unbearable Cost of America’s Trade Deficits.” It was published in 2014 by three brothers – Jesse, Howard and the late Raymond Richman. 

Jesse Richman had first published on “The Scaled Tariff” as a method of “producing balanced trade” in 2011.  

As Tree of Woe explains, “…the book challenges the orthodox theory that free trade is always beneficial and argues for an alternate policy they call balanced trade.” He quotes the Richman brothers’ own explanation: 

For the last several decades, the United States has generally played a cooperative strategy on trade with China and other[s]… U.S. markets have been open to Chinese goods…American leaders selected free trade on the basis of the (false) hope that China would reciprocate by opening its markets to American firms.

‘Free trade’ = American debt 

Did China “liberalize” along with the rest of the global system – as Clinton prophesied in the 1990s? 

The answer is no. Is this market balanced? The Richmans say, “In return for Chinese products, Americans go ever deeper into debt.” 

Debt is a major problem here. The U.S. must refinance a quarter of its national debt – 9 trillion dollars – in 2025 and must do the same for a total of 28 trillion dollars in debt over the next four years. How can Americans reverse this decline?  

The aptly named Richmans proposed one solution: “The scaled tariff.”

Extraordinary nonsense?

Does this add up to an answer? U.S. author James Surowiecki is billed as “the man who cracked the math” on Trump’s tariffs. He said the tariffs were “absurd,” and “based on imaginary numbers” – leading to a “woefully simplistic” view of world trade whose aim of balancing it was “an impossible, and not even desirable, goal.”

 

4. Doing the math on tariffs

Yet it seems it is Mr Surowiecki’s sums which do not add up. As Tree of Woe explains:  

Now, let’s compare the Richmans’ approach to the Liberation Day tariff formula that Surowiecki called ‘extraordinary nonsense.’

The Liberation Day tariff formula takes the U.S. trade deficit with that country and dividing it by the value of the country’s exports to the United States, then divides that value in half. For instance, if China had a trade deficit with the US of $298 billion, and exports of $427 billion, then 0.5 x $298 billion / $427 billion) ~ 35%. 

Do you see? Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are calculated with the exact same formula as the Richmans’ scaled tariffs.

Tree of Woe explains:  

In fact, if you read Trump’s executive order, it reads as if it was written by the Richmans. 

Rarely in the history of presidential policy has a scholars policy formulation been so precisely followed.

He then supplies a little more detail:  

The only difference is that Trump has also included a national strategic tariff of 10% as a baseline.

Where does this come from? Again, Tree of Woe shows it is inspired by another economist. 

Trump trade policy is simply Ian Fletcher’s Free Trade Doesn’t Work combined with the Richmans’ Balanced Trade! 

Why are these two models used by Trump?   

The difference between the two is fundamentally a difference in priorities.

Fletcher prioritizes protection of key industry, while the Richmans emphasize reciprocity in trade flows.

5. The goal is balanced trade

So what does this mean in practice? 

The Trump Administration has hedged its position – it’s adopted the scaled tariff in full, but with a low 10% national strategic tariff (Fletcher recommended 25%).  

What is the overall goal? “Balanced trade,” as Tree of Woe puts it, combined with mutual or reciprocal trade agreements. 

Both the Richmans’ book and the Trump Administration’s executive order offer the same answer here. Since the goal is not to achieve ‘free trade,’ it is to achieve balanced trade, therefore the method by which this is achieved is not “reciprocity of tariffs” but reciprocity of trade flows.

Conclusion: Balancing power

The wider foreign policy of the Trump administration is heavily influenced by realists like Dr. Sumantra Maitra, whose central point is that “power begs to be balanced.” These are tariffs which correct imbalance in trade and will reduce or even vanish where a balance is reached.  

They punish “unfair” trade:  

When trade is balanced, tariffs go to zero (or to 10%, in the Trump version). It’s clean, it’s efficient, and it’s effective.  

Thus, Trump’s tariffs are reciprocal tariffs – but what they reciprocate against is unfair trade practice in generally, evidenced by an imbalance of trade, and not tariffs specifically. 

Rebalancing of strategic power in trade as in diplomacy is the principle here. This is not only a method to a madness but now resembles a recipe for sanity and prosperity. 

So there you have it. Far from being ‘extraordinary nonsense,’ Trump’s trade policy is in fact a careful implementation of trade policies that have been developed and detailed at book-length. 

One of the cheerleaders of the chorus of disapproval – James Surowiecki writes for the globalist magazine The Atlantic 

He is the author of a 2005 book called “The Wisdom of Crowds.” In it, he spoke of the wisdom of the many versus that of the few. If balanced trade restores the American dream, why does he stand against the cause of the majority of American people? 

Is this a wise crowd he leads? It is certainly shouting the loudest. Yet the numbers behind the tariffs are not imaginary, and it seems strange wisdom indeed to call balanced trade and the reduction of national debt an “insane goal.”

Tree of Woe was asked for comment. This is what he said: “America has not pursued a policy of balanced trade in almost a century. The pressure on the White House to revert back to our ordinary course of business is enormous. It remains to be seen whether President Trump will be able to sustain his tariff policy in the face of opposition from the economic elite. One thing is certain: America will never be great again if we don’t re-industrialize.”  

You can read The Tree of Woe’s full report here. 

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Trump eyes end of capital gains tax in 2025

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MXM logo  MxM News

Quick Hit:

In a historic announcement that rattled markets and reignited debate over tax policy, President Donald Trump revealed plans to eliminate the capital gains tax starting in 2025. The unprecedented move would allow Americans to retain all profits from asset sales—whether in stocks, real estate, or other investments. Supporters tout it as a bold pro-growth measure, while critics warn it may cause budget strain and market instability.

Key Details:

  • President Trump announced the elimination of capital gains tax effective 2025, describing it as a move to reward success and promote wealth-building.

  • Currently, capital gains are taxed at rates up to 20%, with additional surcharges for high earners.

  • The announcement caused a major rally across financial markets, though critics claim the change favors the wealthy and could disrupt the economy.

Diving Deeper:

At a press conference on Monday, President Trump laid out a sweeping proposal to eliminate the capital gains tax in its entirety, calling it a “long-overdue correction” to what he described as a punitive tax on prosperity. “Why should you be punished for building wealth?” he asked. “This is America—we reward success.” If enacted, the change would allow investors to retain 100% of profits from the sale of assets such as stocks, homes, and businesses, with zero tax liability.

This proposal marks a sharp departure from decades of entrenched U.S. tax policy. Currently, long-term capital gains are taxed at rates ranging from 0% to 20%, with potential surcharges including the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax for high earners. Trump’s plan would zero out those liabilities entirely starting in the 2025 tax year.

Conservative economists and market analysts have lauded the move as potentially the most transformative supply-side reform since the Reagan era. They argue that removing the tax will unshackle trillions of dollars currently locked in unrealized gains, spurring investment, entrepreneurship, and broader economic dynamism. “This is a game-changer,” said one pro-growth advocate. “It sends a clear message that America is back to being the most investment-friendly nation on Earth.”

Predictably, left-wing critics erupted. One Democratic senator labeled the measure a “grenade” that would detonate the federal budget and widen the wealth gap. Others warned of asset bubbles and increased volatility as investors rush to dump assets ahead of the reform’s implementation. These concerns, however, do not seem to have spooked the markets—at least not yet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 600 points following the announcement, while cryptocurrencies surged on expectations of tax-free gains. Real estate portals and trading platforms like Robinhood and E*TRADE saw surges in activity as users began strategizing around the policy’s timing. Online, the announcement triggered a wave of memes and commentary. The hashtag #NoCapGains began trending on X (formerly Twitter), with some calling it a “wealth liberation act” and others denouncing it as “Robin Hood in reverse.”

Legislation to formalize the proposal is expected to hit Congress within weeks. While Republicans have largely expressed support, Democrats are preparing for a fierce battle. It’s unclear whether some establishment Republicans—many of whom have been resistant to bold reform under Trump—will help move the bill forward or slow-walk it in favor of more moderate compromises.

Until the law is officially passed, financial advisors are urging caution. “The promise of zero capital gains tax is tempting,” one planner said, “but don’t bet the farm until it’s signed, sealed, and delivered.”

Still, with the 2025 tax season approaching fast, the stakes are enormous. If passed, Trump’s plan would not only mark one of the most dramatic tax overhauls in modern history—it would redefine the very incentives that drive American investment and wealth accumulation.

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