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Volkswagen Protests – The Contagion Begins

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Armstrong Economics By Martin Armstrong

Tens of thousands of Volkswagen employees have halted production to protest proposed pay cuts. The German automaker has stated it will need to close three manufacturing plants due to rising labor expenses, material shortages, and, most importantly – the climate change agenda that has demonized fossil fuels.

Over 120,000 workers now face a 10% pay cut if they can manage to keep their jobs. The IG Metall union has warned that protests will be fierce. Volkswagen remains Germany’s top-selling car brand, composing 19% of the market share. Yet profit margins have dropped from a forecast of 7% to 5.6% for 2024 after the company’s cash flow turned negative in the first half of the year. The company states it needs to save 10 billion euros by 2026 in addition to finding a way to cut another 4 billion euros. Operating profits have fallen by 11.4% and they simply cannot continue producing these EVs at the same pace they were producing dreaded fuel-powered cars because the demand is not there.

Now many blame China for providing state subsidies for EVs that are far cheaper than the vehicles produced in Germany. This is why places like the US have placed a 100% tariff on those vehicles so that there is no demand. However, there is simply low demand for electric vehicles everywhere. You cannot force people to buy EVs even if you destroy the energy sector and make prices skyrocket 300% as they did by killing Nordstream. Pushing manufacturers to switch to meet these arbitrary emission targets is killing the entire auto sector which is about 17% of Germany’s entire GDP.

Germany believes it can reduce carbon emissions by 65% by 2030, followed by an 88% reduction into 2040 before meeting gas net neutrality in 2045. They claim that Germany is five years behind on its adoption of electric vehicles as it is far from meeting its goal of 15 million EVs by 2030. The average EV price in euro shot up 7.5% in the past year to €56,669. Infrastructure and charging stations remain inadequate to meet these goals.

Germany relies heavily on automotives, and Europe relies heavily on Germany as its top economy. Now, due to climate initiatives, Volkswagen is closing plants for the first time in its 87-year history. Pay close attention to Germany’s automotive sector, as it could easily cause a ripple effect throughout the entire European economy.

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Foreign Companies Think Twice About Pouring Billions Into US EVs As Trump Return Looms

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Ireland Owens

South Korean companies are reconsidering investments into building electric vehicle (EV) battery plants in the United States, according to Bloomberg.

Some South Korean companies have slowed or halted the construction of some U.S. battery plants over concerns about slackening demand for EVs and President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House, according to Bloomberg. Trump’s proposed cuts to tax credits that have benefitted EV makers are causing some Korean companies to rethink their $54 billion U.S. investment plans.

The price of lithium, a key mineral used in EV batteries, dropped nearly 90% from their highs in 2022 due to slower-than-anticipated EV adoption, Bloomberg reported. Several South Korean companies announced plans for U.S. battery plants in 2022, promising the creation of thousands of jobs, following President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act being signed into law in August 2022, according to Bloomberg.

South Korea’s supply of batteries and battery materials has increased exponentially over the last few years, according to Aranca, a global research and analytics firm. South Korean-owned gigafactories will account for 43% of U.S. battery production growth over the next five years, according to Benchmark Source. Various Korean companies have been pumping billions of dollars into American manufacturing in recent years, with South Korean companies investing more in the U.S. than any other country in 2023.

Trump has long criticized EVs, and vowed to repeal the Biden administration’s EV measures in October 2023, calling them “insane.” The president-elect’s transition team is planning to undo the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EV purchases, Reuters reported last month.

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to “revolutionize” the U.S. auto industry and vowed to make interest on car loans fully tax deductible in an attempt to boost domestic auto production. Trump has also proposed to offer tax breaks for purchasing vehicles manufactured in the U.S., emphasizing that it would boost domestic auto industry jobs and benefit American automakers, according to CBT News. The president-elect has proposed introducing tariffs on various imported goods, causing some American companies to speed up shifting production out of other countries, such as China and Mexico.

The Biden-Harris administration has led a push to increase the usage of EVs nationwide as part of President Joe Biden’s signature climate agenda. Biden introduced stringent tailpipe emissions  standards in March that would require about 67% of all light-duty vehicles sold after 2032 to be EVs or hybrids. The president also vowed to build 500,000 public EV chargers nationwide by 2030, although the charging network plans has thus far been significantly delayed.

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Northvolt bankruptcy ominous sign for politicians’ EV gamble

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

By Jay Goldberg

Northvolt’s bankruptcy and the heavy losses traditional auto manufacturers are seeing on EVs is evidence that betting billions on the industry was a terrible gamble for Trudeau, Legault, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

Politicians love to gamble with your cash, but, based on their record, you’d think they were rookies getting fleeced by a card shark at a shady bar.

The latest epic failure is the gamble on electric vehicle battery manufacturer Northvolt.

The Legault government bet buckets of cash. And now the company is broke.

“Northvolt’s liquidity picture has become dire,” reads the Swedish EV battery manufacturer’s bankruptcy protection filing.

It turns out Northvolt accumulated $5.8 billion of debt. It’s CEO just resigned. The company’s future is bleak. New leadership is hoping it can remain afloat with the help of a $100-million loan from one of its shareholders.

Both the government of Quebec and the province’s pension fund bet hundreds of millions of dollars on Northvolt. They bought stakes in the company worth a combined $470 million.

That’s money Quebec taxpayers and pensioners may never get back.

Quebec Economy Minister Christine Fréchette admitted the money is “at risk” and taxpayers will only know if that investment remains intact after the company goes through its bankruptcy process.

As bad as the loss is for Quebeckers, Canadian taxpayers might also soon be facing billions in losses. That’s because Northvolt has a Canadian subsidiary that also received buckets of taxpayer cash.

Northvolt’s Canadian subsidiary is currently building a $7-billion EV battery plant in Quebec. Quebec Premier Francois Legault and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave a combined $2.4 billion to Northvolt to build it.

Northvolt says its Canadian subsidiary is funded separately from the global company that was forced to file for bankruptcy and will “operate as usual outside the Chapter 11 process.”

But if the parent company’s finances have spiraled out of control, there’s every reason for taxpayers to worry its Canadian operation will too.

Northvolt repeatedly missed its in-house global production targets this year and curtailed some of its operations in Sweden.

If Northvolt is cutting back on global production, what reason does it have to ramp up production on a new facility in Canada?

With Northvolt’s global finances on the rocks, Canadian politicians might be tempted to throw even more cash at the company’s Canadian operation to keep the company afloat.

But throwing good money after bad isn’t a solution. Politicians in Ottawa and Quebec City need to stop gambling with taxpayers’ money.

Sadly, the implications for taxpayers are much wider than the future of one EV battery company.

Canadian politicians bet $57 billion of taxpayer cash on the EV industry.

But the entire industry is in jeopardy. Other than Tesla, every EV manufacturer is losing money making them.

General Motors lost $3.5 billion on EVs in 2023. The Ford Motor Company lost $7.7 billion. And both of those companies received billion-dollar handouts from the Trudeau and Ford governments to build EVs here in Canada.

The only reason GM and Ford aren’t in Northvolt’s position is because they have gasoline-powered cars to sell that turn a profit, allowing them to balance out their earnings (or lack thereof).

But there are signs of a pull-back.

Ford, for example, cancelled plans to produce two different models of electric SUVs, which were supposed to be built in Canada. This is costing the company billions. Meanwhile, the Canadian plant is pivoting back to building gasoline-powered cars.

Northvolt’s bankruptcy and the heavy losses traditional auto manufacturers are seeing on EVs is evidence that betting billions on the industry was a terrible gamble for Trudeau, Legault, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

This is a very expensive lesson: politicians should never gamble with taxpayer dollars by throwing billions at corporations. Businesses don’t need handouts to make investments that make sense.

In all these cases, the financial well-being of Canadian taxpayers should never have been at risk.

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