Fraser Institute
Urban Population Densities in Canada and Abroad—an Update
From the Fraser Institute
By Steven Globerman and Milagros Palacios
Canadian cities—including Toronto and Vancouver, which are experiencing high and increasing housing costs—can accommodate much more housing supply as they have much lower population densities than other major comparable urban centres around the world, finds a new study by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Compared to their international peers, Canadian cities have much lower levels of density, which means there’s an opportunity to expand the supply of housing and perhaps make housing more affordable, too,” said Steven Globerman, Fraser Institute senior fellow and co-author of Urban Population Densities in Canada and Abroad—an Update.
The study, which compares population densities in 30 metropolitan centres in highincome developed countries, finds that Canadian cities are among the least-dense.
Even Vancouver—Canada’s densest major city with 5,750 people per square kilometre—ranks 13th out of 30, and is significantly less dense than San Francisco (6,656 people per square kilometre), a comparable west coast city. In Toronto, there are 4,552 people per square kilometre. In fact, Toronto’s population could double and the city would still be less dense than New York City (10,712). And crucially, Toronto and Vancouver are significantly less dense than many other major cities around the world, including London (10,663) Tokyo (15,531) and Paris (20,360).
“Some of the most desirable, liveable cities in the world have much higher population densities than Canada’s biggest cities,” Globerman said. “Canadian cities can become significantly more dense, and possibly more affordable, without necessarily sacrificing living standards.”
- Affordable housing in cities is a major public-policy issue in Canada.
- Zoning and related restrictions on increased construction of multi-family housing in urban centres have been identified by the federal government and several provincial governments as major impediments to affordable housing.
- Governments are promoting increased population density in urban areas through financial incentives and other initiatives but face opposition from homeowners and other interest groups concerned that density will bring a diminished quality of living.
- In fact, urban population densities in Canada are relatively low compared to medium- and large-sized cities in other wealthy countries.
- Moreover, there is no consistent evidence showing that increased urban density leads to a lower quality of living.
Authors:
From the Fraser Institute
The rate of property crimes per person in Calgary is 50 per cent higher than in Phoenix, and Lethbridge has the highest rate of property crime of any large urban area in Canada, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“Albertans are no doubt aware that the rate of property crimes in the province’s biggest cities is on the rise, but they might not know how bad it’s become relative to American cities to the south,” said Livio Di Matteo, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the US.
The study examines crime rates of large urban areas with 100,000 people or more, known as Census Metropolitan Areas in Canada and Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S.
Using the maximum annual crime rate from 2019 to 2022 (the most recent years of comparable date), Lethbridge had the highest rate of property crimes (e.g., burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft) of all Canadian cities while Kelowna, BC ranked 2nd.
Both Lethbridge and Calgary ranked higher than Las Vegas for property crime, while Lethbridge also ranked higher than Denver, Salt Lake City, Utah, and Los Angeles, California.
Winnipeg, Manitoba is Canada’s most-violent city with the highest per person rate of violent crimes (murder, robbery, and assault with a weapon) of all Canadian urban areas. Crucially, Winnipeg ranked 18th out of all 334 urban areas in Canada and the U.S.
“Crime rates in Alberta’s largest cities, while still historically low, are on the rise and should be of greater concern for both citizens and policymakers,” Di Matteo said.
Comparing Recent Crime Trends in Canada and the United States
- This study examines total property and total violent crimes, adjusted for population, across 36 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and over 300 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The data reported covers the 2019 to 2022 period.
- In general, after decades of decline, recent years have seen increases in crime rates in both Canada and the United States, though by historic standards rates remain low.
- For violent crimes, the top (worst) ranked city was Memphis, TN (1,311 per 100,000) while the top ranked Canadian city was Winnipeg, which ranked 18th overall at 675 per 100,000.
- Twenty-five percent of Canadian CMAs are in the top half of Canada-U.S. violent crime rankings with the remaining 75 percent in the bottom half.
- For property crime, the top (worst) ranked city was Lethbridge, AB at 5,521 per 100,000. Kelowna, BC ranked second highest (4,932 per 100,000). Pueblo, CO at 4,911 per 100,000 ranked third overall and was the highest (worst) ranked U.S. city.
- While Canadian CMAs make up roughly 10 percent of the CMAs and MSAs used in this ranking, when it comes to property crime rates, they account for 24 percent of the top (worst) 10 percent of the property crime rankings whereas in the case of violent crimes they accounted for only 3 percent of the cities in the top 10 percent.
- There is a distinct east-west divide in the data in that eastern Canadian cities, particularly in Quebec, tend to have lower rates (adjusted for population) of both violent and property crime compared to the west. A similar east-west trend holds in the United States.
Livio Di Matteo
Professor of Economics, Lakehead University
From the Fraser Institute
In light of regular reports of hallway health care, regular closures of emergency rooms, and the longest wait times for care on record, it’s understandable that Canadians want dramatic improvements to their health-care system. For governments, particularly during budget season, improvement often means an increase in spending.
However, Canada already ranks among the most expensive universal health-care systems in the world. In 2022 (the latest year of comparable data), and after adjusting for population age in each country, Canada ranked fourth-highest for health-care spending as a share of the economy (11.5 per cent). For per-person spending, Canada ranked ninth. In other words, whichever way you look at it, Canada ranked among the top-third of spenders among 31 universal health-care countries.
That’s a lot of money. But what do Canadians get in return?
Canada ranked near the bottom (28th of 30) on the availability of physicians. Canada also had some of the fewest hospital beds and diagnostic equipment (including CT scanners and MRI units) per person.
Moreover, among nine universal health-care countries surveyed by the Commonwealth Fund, a health-care research organization, 65.2 per cent of Canadian patients reported waiting more than one month for a specialist appointment (8th worst out of 9 countries) compared to 35.7 per cent in top-ranked the Netherlands.
We see the same thing for patients trying to access timely non-emergency surgical care. In Canada, 58.3 per cent of patients reported waiting more than two months (9th worst of 9 countries), far more than in the Netherlands (20.3 per cent), Germany (20.4 per cent) and Switzerland (21.1 per cent).
While Canada clearly struggles on measures of availability and timely access to medical resources, it reported mixed results in other areas. For example, Canada performed well on measures of heart attack survival (ranked 8th of 26). And while Canada had average performance for stroke survivability, it remained a bottom of the barrel performer on safety measures such as obstetric trauma during birth (23rd of 23).
With relatively fewer key medical resources and long waits for non-emergency surgery, patients in Canada face major challenges. And this budget season, while governments may be keen to simply spend more, in reality Canadians do not currently receive commensurate value for their health-care dollars. Without fundamental reform, based on the experiences of other more successful universal health-care systems, it’s unlikely we’ll see improvement.
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