Business
Understanding the Nature of Canada’s Fiscal and Economic Challenges
From the Fraser Institute
By Jake Fuss and Jason Clemens
” between 2016 and 2019 (pre-COVID), growth in per-person GDP (inflation-adjusted) was an anemic 0.9 percent. According to one study, among the last five pre-recession periods in Canadian history, the Trudeau period (again, 2016 to 2019) recorded the weakest economic growth “
The Trudeau government was first elected in 2015 based in part on a new approach to government policy, which promised greater prosperity for Canadians based on short-term deficit spending (totaling $25.1 billion over three years), lower taxes for most Canadians (except higher-income earners), and a more active approach to economic development (LPC, 2015). This new policy direction stood in stark contrast to the consensus of the previous 20 years (Clemens and Palacios, 2017). The result has been a marked deterioration in the country’s finances, economic stagnation, and a collapse in business investment. If Canada is to restore its fiscal and economic health, Ottawa must enact fundamental policy reform.
Government spending, taxes, and debt
The Trudeau government has markedly increased spending to finance both new programs and increases in existing programs. Federal spending (excluding interest costs) increased from $256.3 billion in 2014-15 (the year before the Trudeau government took office) to $448.2 billion in 2022-23 (an increase of 74.9 percent) (Canada, 2023a) and a projected $453.0 billion in 2023-24 (Canada, 2023b). Not surprisingly, COVID-related spending contributed to increases in 2019-20 to 2021-22. But in 2022-23 and thereafter, there is no COVID-related spending.
The federal government has used tax increases and large increases in borrowing to finance these spending increases. In 2016, the federal government increased the top personal income tax rate imposed on entrepreneurs, professionals , and business owners from 29 percent to 33 percent. Consequently, the combined top personal income tax rate (federal and provincial) now exceeds 50 percent in eight provinces (with the remaining provinces only slightly below 50 percent) and in 2022 Canada had the 5th highest tax rate out of 38 OECD countries. This represents a serious competitive challenge for Canada’s ability to attract and retain entrepreneurs, investors, skilled professionals, and businesses.
And while the Trudeau government reduced the middle personal income tax rate, it also eliminated several tax credits. The combination of the two policy changes means that 86 percent of middle-income families now pay higher personal income taxes (Palacios et al., 2022). If the analysis also includes increases to the Canada Pension Plan contribution rate, almost all Canadians now pay higher taxes.
The Trudeau government also borrowed to finance its new spending. Figure 1 contrasts the originally
planned deficits with the actual deficits incurred by the Trudeau government (excluding COVID-related
spending) from 2016-17 to 2022-23. The actual borrowing exceeds the originally planned borrowing
every year (except 2021-22), often by significant margins, due to the government’s inability to control
spending growth.
The string of deficits means federal debt (measured as gross debt) has ballooned to $1.9 trillion
(2022-23) and is projected to reach $2.4 trillion by 2027/28, fueling a dramatic growth in interest costs,
which have grown by 53.2 percent (inflation-adjusted) between 2014/15 and 2023/24 and will reach
a projected $46.5 billion in 2023/24. Interest costs now consume substantial revenue that is then unavailable for government services or tax reduction.
Simply put, Trudeau government policy changes have produced large increases in government spending, taxes, and borrowing. Unfortunately, these policy changes have not resulted in a more robust and vibrant economy.
Weak economic growth and collapsing business investment
The broadest measure of living standards is GDP per person, which calculates the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy in a given year (adjusted by the population). As illustrated in Figure 2, between 2016 and 2019 (pre-COVID), growth in per-person GDP (inflation-adjusted) was an anemic 0.9 percent. According to one study, among the last five pre-recession periods in Canadian history, the Trudeau period (again, 2016 to 2019) recorded the weakest economic growth (Clemens, Palacios, and Veldhuis, 2021). Another study found that Canada’s per-person GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was the weakest on record since the 1930s (Cross, 2023). And per-person GDP in 2022 (inflation-adjusted) had still not recovered from the pandemic losses and was basically stagnant at 2018 levels (see figure 2).
Prospects for the future, given current policies, are not encouraging. The OECD projects that Canada will record the lowest rate of per-person GDP growth among 32 advanced economies from 2020 to 2030 and from 2030 to 2060(OECD, 2021).Countries such as Estonia, South Korea, and New Zealand are expected to vault past Canada and achieve higher living standards by 2060.
According to a recent analysis, Canada’s economic growth crisis is due in part to the decline in business investment, which is critical to increasing living standards because it equips workers with tools and technologies to produce more higher-quality goods and services. This, in turn, fuels innovation and improved productivity (Cross, 2023). There are obvious explanations for the decline in business investment including regulatory barriers, particularly related to the energy and mining sectors (Globerman and Emes, 2021), and government deficits, which imply tax increases in the future, dampening investment today. Business investment (inflation-adjusted), excluding residential construction, has declined by 1.8 percent annually since 2014.
According to a 2023 study (Hill and Emes, 2023), between 2014 and 2021, business investment per worker (inflation-adjusted, excluding residential construction) decreased by $3,676 (to $14,687) compared to growth of $3,418 (to $26,751) in the United States. Put differently, in 2014, Canadian
businesses invested 79 cents per worker for every dollar invested in the United States. By 2021, that level of investment had declined to just 55 cents per worker.
Moreover, the amount of investment in Canada by foreigners has decreased while the amount of investment by Canadians outside of the country has increased. In 2008, the two levels were roughly comparable—$65.7 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Canada vs. $84.6 billion in investment by Canadians outside of the country. However, a sizeable change began in 2015; by 2022, the amount of FDI ($64.6 billion) was significantly smaller than the amount of investment by Canadians outside the country ($102.3 billion).
Finally, while Canada’s labour market has consistently demonstrated its strength and resilience, the labour market numbers hide some concerning trends. For example, between February 2020 (when the pandemic began) and June 2023, private-sector job creation (net) was fairly weak at 3.3 percent compared to 11.8 percent job growth in the government sector (Eisen, Ryan and Palacios, 2023). In other words, the recovery and growth in the private sector following the pandemic has not been as strong as expected.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
There is reason for optimism, however, since many of Canada’s challenges are of the federal government’s own making. The Chrétien Liberals in the 1990s faced many of the same challenges that we do today (Veldhuis, Clemens, and Palacios, 2011). By shifting the focus to more prudent government spending, balanced budgets, debt reduction, and competitive tax rates, the Chrétien Liberals—followed in large measure by the Harper Tories—paved the way for two decades of prosperity when Canada outperformed other OECD countries on economic growth, job-creation, and business investment.
To help foster greater prosperity for Canadians today, the federal government can learn from the Chrétien Liberals, and the Harper Tories. The rest of this series identifies policy options that can increase living standards for Canadians by repairing federal finances, improving tax competitiveness, and lowering economic barriers. These reforms could help build a more prosperous country through the creation of good jobs which would lead to rising incomes for Canadians.
Authors:
What Prime Minister Mark Carney gives with his left hand, he takes away with his right hand.
Canadians are already overtaxed and need serious tax cuts to make life more affordable and make our economy more competitive. But at best, the New Year will bring a mixed bag for Canadian taxpayers.
The federal government is cutting income taxes, but it’s hiking payroll taxes. The government cancelled the consumer carbon tax, but it’s hammering Canadian businesses with a higher industrial carbon tax.
The federal government cut the lowest income tax bracket from 15 to 14 per cent. That will save the average taxpayer $190 in 2026, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
But the government is taking more money from Canadians’ paycheques with higher payroll taxes.
Workers earning $85,000 or more will pay $5,770 in federal payroll taxes in 2026. That’s a $262 payroll tax hike. Their employers will also be forced to pay $6,219.
So Canadians will save a couple hundred bucks from the income tax cut in the new year, but many Canadians will pay a couple hundred bucks more in payroll taxes.
It’s the same story with carbon taxes.
After massive backlash from ordinary Canadians, the federal government dropped its consumer carbon tax that cost average families hundreds of dollars every year and increased the price of gas by about 18 cents per litre.
But Carney’s first budget shows he wants higher carbon taxes on Canadian businesses. Carney still hasn’t provided Canadians a clear answer on how much his business carbon tax will cost. He did, however, provide a hint during a press conference he held after signing a memorandum of understanding with the Alberta government.
“It means more than a six times increase in the industrial price on carbon,” Carney said.
Carney previously said that by “changing the carbon tax … We are making the large companies pay for everybody.”
Carney’s problem is that Canadians aren’t buying what he’s selling on carbon taxes.
Just 12 per cent of Canadians believe Carney that businesses will pay most of the cost of his carbon tax, according to a Leger poll. Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians say businesses will pass most or some of the cost to consumers.
Canadians understand that it doesn’t matter what type of lipstick politicians put on their carbon tax pig, all carbon taxes make life more expensive.
Carney is also continuing his predecessor’s tradition of automatically increasing booze taxes.
Ottawa will once again hike taxes on beer, wine and spirits in 2026 through its undemocratic alcohol tax escalator.
First passed in the 2017 federal budget, the alcohol escalator tax automatically increases federal taxes on beer, wine and spirits every year without a vote in Parliament.
Federal alcohol taxes are expected to increase by two per cent on April 1, and cost taxpayers $41 million in 2026. Since being imposed, the alcohol escalator tax has cost taxpayers about $1.6 billion, according to industry estimates.
Canadians are overtaxed and need the federal government to seriously lighten the load.
The biggest expense for the average Canadian family isn’t the home they live in, the food they eat or the clothes they buy. It’s the taxes they pay to all levels of government. More than 40 per cent of the average family’s budget goes to paying taxes, according to the Fraser Institute.
Politicians are taking too much money from Canadians. And their high taxes are driving away investment and jobs.
Canada ranks a dismal 27th out of 38 industrialized countries on individual tax competitiveness, according to the Tax Foundation. Canada ranks 22nd on business tax competitiveness. Canada is behind the United States on both measures.
A little bit of tax relief here and there isn’t going to cut it. Carney’s New Year’s resolution needs to be to embark on a massive tax cutting campaign.
Federal agents are now going “DOOR TO DOOR” in Minneapolis, launching what the Department of Homeland Security itself describes as an on-the-ground sweep of businesses and day-care centers tied to Minnesota’s exploding fraud scandal — a case that has already burned through at least $1 billion in taxpayer money and is rapidly closing in on Democrat Gov. Tim Walz and his administration.
ICE agents, working under the umbrella of the Department of Homeland Security, fanned out across the city this week, showing up unannounced at locations suspected of billing state and federal programs for services that never existed. One day-care worker told reporters Monday that masked agents arrived at her facility, demanded paperwork, and questioned staff about operations and enrollment.
“DHS is on the ground in Minneapolis, going DOOR TO DOOR at suspected fraud sites,” the agency posted on X. “The American people deserve answers on how their taxpayer money is being used and ARRESTS when abuse is found.”
DHS is on the ground in Minneapolis, going DOOR TO DOOR at suspected fraud sites.
The American people deserve answers on how their taxpayer money is being used and ARRESTS when abuse is found. Under the leadership of @Sec_Noem, DHS is working to deliver results. pic.twitter.com/7XtRflv36b
— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) December 29, 2025
Authorities say the confirmed fraud already totals roughly $300 million tied to fake food programs, $220 million linked to bogus autism services, and more than $300 million charged for housing assistance that never reached the people it was meant to help. Investigators from the FBI, Justice Department, and Department of Labor have now expanded their probes after a viral investigation exposed taxpayer-funded day cares that received more than $1 million each while allegedly serving few — or zero — children.
One of the most glaring examples, the Minneapolis-based Quality “Learing” Center — infamous for its misspelled sign — suddenly appeared busy Monday as national media arrived. Locals told reporters the center is typically empty and often looks permanently closed, despite receiving about $1.9 million in public funds. State inspection records show the facility has racked up 95 violations since 2019. Employees allegedly cursed at reporters while children were bused in during posted afternoon hours.
DHS officials say the “DOOR TO DOOR” operation is deliberate. In videos released online, agents are seen questioning nearby business owners about whether adjacent buildings ever had foot traffic, whether they appeared open, and whether operators used subcontractors or outside partners to pad billing. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem posted footage of agents pressing workers about business relationships and transportation services used by suspected fraud sites.
“This is a large-scale investigation,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin told the New York Post, confirming that Homeland Security Investigations and ICE are targeting fraudulent day-care and health-care centers as well as related financial schemes.
FBI Director Kash Patel warned that what investigators have uncovered so far is “just the tip of a very large iceberg.” He pointed to the bureau’s dismantling of a $250 million COVID-era food-aid scam tied to the Feeding Our Future network, a case that resulted in 78 indictments and 57 convictions. Patel has also made clear that denaturalization and deportation remain on the table for convicted fraudsters where the law allows.
Dozens of arrests have already been made across the broader scheme, many involving Somali immigrants, though federal officials stress the investigation targets criminal behavior — not communities. Some local residents say the scandal is hurting law-abiding families. One Somali Uber driver told reporters he works 16-hour days and is furious that “some people are taking advantage of the system,” making the entire community look bad.
Now, with federal agents going “DOOR TO DOOR” across Minneapolis, the era of polite indifference appears to be over. The message from Washington is blunt: the money trail is being followed, the paperwork is being checked, and the days of treating taxpayer-funded programs like an open vault are coming to an end.
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