Alberta
Trudeau is punishing Albertans this Autumn
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Author: Kris Sims
The colder weather is here. Albertans are making dinners and heating our homes against the chill this Autumn.
Nourishing and normal things, such as preparing a holiday meal and staying warm, are now financially punishable offenses.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s two carbon taxes make driving to work, buying food and heating our homes cost much more.
As one of the Trudeau government consultants that drafted the legislation stated, the carbon tax is meant to “punish the poor behaviour of using fossil fuels.”
The first carbon tax adds 14 cents per litre of gasoline and 17 cents per litre of diesel. This costs about $10 extra to fill up a minivan and about $16 extra to fill up a pickup truck.
The carbon tax on diesel costs truckers about $160 extra to fill up the tanks on big-rig trucks.
The second carbon tax is a government fuel regulation that fines companies for the carbon in fuels. Those costs are passed down to drivers at the pump.
Trudeau fashioned his second carbon after British Columbia’s. B.C. drivers have been paying two carbon taxes for years, and it’s a key reason why they pay the highest fuel prices in North America, usually hovering at about $2 per litre. Trudeau wants to make Vancouver gas prices as commonly Canadian as maple syrup.
Trudeau imposed his second carbon tax this Canada Day. It’s not clear yet how much the second carbon tax costs for a litre of gasoline and diesel in Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, the second carbon tax tacks an extra four to eight cents per litre of fuel.
That big tax bill is only getting bigger because Trudeau is cranking up his carbon tax every year for the next seven years.
By 2030, Trudeau’s two carbon taxes will cost an extra 55 cents per litre of gasoline and 77 cents per litre of diesel, plus GST. Filling up a big rig truck with diesel will cost about $760 extra.
In seven years, average Albertans will pay more than $3,300 per year because of Trudeau’s two carbon taxes even after rebates.
Ordinary people pay Trudeau’s carbon taxes every day. So do truckers. So do farmers.
Remember the Thanksgiving turkey? Turkeys eat grain which is hit by the carbon tax when it goes through the grain dryer. Turkeys are raised in heated barns, which is carbon taxed, and the trucks hauling them from the slaughterhouse to the grocery store get carbon taxed, too. That’s how the carbon tax makes food cost more.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer reports the carbon tax will cost Canadians farmers close to $1 billion by 2030.
But it’s not just transportation and food that gets hit with the Trudeau’s carbon tax.
Home heating is punished too. The current carbon tax costs 12 cents extra per cubic metre of natural gas, 10 cents extra per litre of propane and 17 cents extra per litre of furnace oil.
An average Alberta home uses about 2,800 cubic metres of natural gas per year, so the carbon tax will cost them about $337 extra to heat their home. Costs are similar for propane and furnace oil.
Home heating is essential for a place like Alberta.
Punishing Canadians with a carbon tax is pointless and unfair.
It’s pointless because the carbon tax won’t fix climate change. As the PBO has noted, “Canada’s own emissions are not large enough to materially impact climate change.”
It’s unfair because ordinary people who are driving to work, buying food for their families and heating their homes are backed into a corner. Carbon tax cheerleaders tell them to “switch.”
Switch to what?
What abundant, reliable, affordable alternative energy source is available to Albertans? This isn’t like choosing between paper or plastic bags, this is about surviving the winter and affording food, or not.
Albertans should not be punished for staying warm and feeding our families.
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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