conflict
‘This Is A Setback’: Did Biden’s Gaza Ceasefire Dreams Get Blown Up With A Top Hamas Leader?
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By JAKE SMITH
The Biden administration’s Gaza ceasefire hopes may be fading in the wake of a top Hamas leader being assassinated deep inside Iran, defense experts told the Daily Caller News Foundations.
The administration and several international negotiators have spent months trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages in Gaza, with officials suggesting in recent weeks that remaining “gaps” could be soon narrowed to reach an agreement. But the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a key negotiator in the deal, will likely complicate ceasefire talks and erase months of progress, experts told the DCNF.
Israel has not taken credit for the killing, but Iran and Hamas were quick to assign blame regardless, and some reports indicate that the Israeli forces were secretly behind the operation. His assassination underscores the unique position Israel has found itself in over the last several months — working tirelessly to defeat the terrorist group while trying to negotiate with them at the same time, experts told the DCNF.
“The implication here is that the ceasefire talks and hostage talks are set back a while, to the extent that anyone believed that they were going to happen at all,” Gabriel Noronha, executive director at Polaris National Security and former State Department official, told the DCNF. “From Hamas’ side, internally, they’re not going to feel like doing anything with Israel anytime soon.”
“Talking while fighting is hard under the best of circumstances… it’s a weird thing to do at all, although you have to do it. [The U.S. has] done it, of course, but when you kill the actual negotiator, it’s going to be very hard to find somebody who wants to play that role in the future, because you are now both a diplomat and a target,” Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute, told the DCNF. “It would be remarkable to me if anybody told you they didn’t think this was a setback for diplomacy.”
Haniyeh joined Hamas in 1997 and led the terrorist group’s political wing since 2017, according to The Washington Post. He was sanctioned by the U.S. and wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
In the ongoing war in Gaza, Haniyeh represented Hamas during ceasefire negotiators with Qatari and Egyptian meditators. Though his death is not unwelcomed by the West, it threatens to complicate ongoing negotiations with Hamas.
Biden officials are now scrambling to keep the deal alive, according to several reports. The strike against Haniyeh in Iran caught the Biden administration by surprise, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.
“This is something we were not aware of or involved in,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interviewduring a trip to Singapore , adding that he did not know “what this [meant]” for ongoing ceasefire discussions. The State Department referred the DCNF to deputy spokesman Vedant Patel’s comments during a press briefing on Wednesday, in which he echoed Blinken’s comments that he didn’t want “to speculate on any potential impacts.”
President Joe Biden held a “tough” phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday to express his frustration that Israel would choose to kill Haniyeh at such a pivotal time for the ceasefire talks, even though his death as a general matter would not be upsetting to the U.S., two U.S. officials told Axios. The phone call was reportedly emotional as Biden “raised his voice” at Netanyahu toward the conclusion of the discussion, insisting that he wanted a ceasefire deal reached within “a week to two weeks,” an Israeli official with direct knowledge of the discussions told Axios.
The Biden administration and the Israeli government have seemingly been at odds for months on how to achieve a ceasefire. Biden put forward a ceasefire proposal in May that he claimed was penned by the Israelis, but Netanyahu seemed to reject the proposal shortly after it was announced.
“I think it’s clear that they have not been synced up on the ceasefire approach at all,” Logan told the DCNF. “Part of it is wishful thinking on the part of the Biden people that, you know, ‘we believe Netanyahu should want this, therefore he probably does want it’ — and they’re not listening to what Netanyahu is saying in reality. I think there has to be some frustration there and a feeling that the world’s only superpower has little leverage to control this situation.”
Biden also spoke with Netanyahu about Iran and Hezbollah’s potential retaliation, given that both have promised revenge for the strikes in Lebanon and Iran on Tuesday. Israeli forces claimed responsibility for an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday which successfully killed a high-level Hezbollah commander, just hours before the separate strike in Iran.
The two world leaders discussed joint U.S.-Israeli military operations that would stage a defense in the event of an attack, and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin informed his Israeli counterparts on Thursday about U.S. force posture changes in the Middle East, according to Reuters and Axios.
Biden told Netanyahu during their Thursday phone call, however, that should Israel stage a similar operation as it did earlier this week, he shouldn’t expect the U.S. to come to its defense, one U.S. official told Axios.
“I had a very direct meeting with the prime minister today. Very direct,” Biden told reporters on Thursday evening following his call with Netanyahu. When asked whether Haniyeh’s death would impact ceasefire talks, Biden said “It’s not helped.”
Featured Image Credit: Official White House Photo by Cameron Smith
conflict
The West Is Playing With Fire In Ukraine
National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
As wars tend to do, the battle over Ukraine continues to escalate.
It was reported this week that North Korean soldiers in the conflict total 10,000 thus far and that Russia has rewarded Pyongyang by sending its excellent air defense systems to the Korean Peninsula in exchange.
Last month, the National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby, warned that any North Korean troops fighting in the conflict would be, “fair game and fair targets.”
His green light delivered this week when “a high-ranking North Korean military officer [became] a casualty” according to a Wall Street Journal story on Thursday. That strike was allegedly conducted with British Storm Shadow missiles.
Just these recent events further entangle the U.S., U.K., North Korea, South Korea, and China within the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
But the week’s biggest Ukraine news rattled many Americans — the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to strike targets within Russia with the American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
“The missiles will speak for themselves,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy boasted.
They sure will. First of all, the U.S. doesn’t have many of the $1.3 million missiles to lob around. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo warned an audience at the Brookings Institute this week that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are “now eating into stocks … and to say otherwise would be dishonest.”
I’ve met and been briefed by Admiral Paparo, who is one of the most positive and straight-talking flag officers in our military. If he is publicly ringing the warning bell, U.S. policy leaders should take heed.
Putin did not take the news of the ATACMS well. In response, he announced the use of a hypersonic ballistic missile on Thursday, carefully noting that it didn’t carry a nuclear warhead. The unspoken part: next time, it might.
What’s the goal in Biden’s escalation? It seems the White House is trying to prevent the inevitable or blame Trump for Ukraine’s upcoming defeat.
What they won’t admit is that the metrics of the war are not in Ukraine’s favor, and frankly never have been. No supersonic missile will change the immutable: Russia boasts a population five times Ukraine’s and when it comes to war materiel, Russia is winning. Despite Biden’s attempt to hobble the Russian economy, Putin’s war industry is outproducing the West by three times in the basic munitions needed to prosecute a land battle.
But aren’t Russians dying en mass on the battlefield?
Western leaders keep touting Russia’s high death toll, which estimates now place at 600,000. To military strategists here in the United States, such a human cost is unimaginable. Add up every American combat death going back 160 years through the Gulf Wars, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, World War II, World War I, and even the Union combat deaths in the Civil War, and the number does’t reach what Russia has lost in the past 1,000 days.
American and NATO leaders are foolish to underestimate Russian resolve.
Since its initial blundering and poorly-executed invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has recovered from its mistakes, Russian public support for the war remains high, and the Russian economy hasn’t fallen apart. Putin may have lost the virtue-signaling battle of Ukrainian flag lapel pins, but make no mistake: he’s on a path to win the war.
Biden’s deputy Pentagon press secretary, Sabrina Singh, says don’t worry. On Thursday she told reporters the administration was sending as much American weapons and support to Ukraine as it can muster, “in the weeks and months ahead left of this administration. So, that’s what we’re really focused on.”
What did she make of Putin’s nuclear threat? “I mean, you know, we’ve seen this type of, you know, dangerous, reckless rhetoric before from President Putin,” Singh said.
“I mean, you know?” No, we don’t know. The world hasn’t seen nuclear threats like this since Harry S. Truman demanded Japan surrender.
For anyone worried about the state of our national security, January 20th can’t come quickly enough.
conflict
Russia has sent the West a message: Don’t provoke us into escalating the war
From LifeSiteNews
The U.S., U.K., and NATO war alliance is desperate to provoke Vladimir Putin into expanded engagement prior to Donald Trump taking office. NATO members, sans Biden, met after the U.S. election to organize a strategy to Trump-proof their efforts.
Despite the diminutive Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky jumping around and shouting about Russians firing an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Thursday, they didn’t. Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided his response to the U.S-led NATO group firing missiles into the Russian Federation would be to send a message with a multi-warhead intermediate range hypersonic missile. (Click here for background information.)
President Vladimir Putin said “one of the newest Russian medium-range missile systems was tested in combat conditions, in this case with a ballistic missile in non-nuclear hypersonic edition.” The missile has a range of approximately 3,500 kilometers, below the threshold for the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) – that’s a reach throughout western Europe, and the hypersonic message is likely, “You have no iron dome system that can prevent this.”
From Reuters:
Russia fired a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro on Thursday in response to the U.S. and UK allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced Western weapons, in a further escalation of the 33-month-old war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a televised address, said Moscow struck a Ukrainian military facility with a new ballistic missile known as ‘Oreshnik’ (the hazel) and warned that more could follow.
‘A regional conflict in Ukraine previously provoked by the West has acquired elements of a global character,’ Putin said in an address to the nation carried by state television after 8 pm Moscow time (1700 GMT).
A U.S. official said that Washington was pre-notified by Russia shortly before its strike, while another said they had briefed Kyiv and other close allies in recent days to prepare for the possible use of such a weapon.
Regardless of its classification, the latest strike highlighted rapidly rising tensions in the past several days.
Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.
The U.S., U.K., and NATO war alliance is desperate to provoke Vladimir Putin into expanded engagement prior to President-elect Donald Trump taking office. The NATO members, sans Biden, previously met in Brussels after the U.S. election to organize a strategy to Trump-proof their efforts.
Increasingly it looks like Great Britain will lead the provocation effort, with full support of the U.S. war machine. We previously said to watch Moldova closely, because that strategic position would be the most likely place of Western political influence to provoke Russia.
Indeed, as things are starting to unfold with increased urgency stimulated by the U.S. election outcome, now we see the U.K. entering a new agreement for military defense of Moldova being pre-positioned. From a U.K. government press release:
A new UK-Moldova Defence and Security Partnership has also been launched today, building on extensive cooperation between the two countries and strengthening Moldovan resilience against external threats. This partnership will bolster support for the sovereignty, security and stability of Ukraine, helping to strengthen national security at home in the face of increasing Russian aggression.
…
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said:
‘Moldova is a vital security partner for the UK, which is why to reinforce their resilience against Russian aggression and to keep British streets safe, I am deepening cooperation on irregular migration and launching a new Defence and Security Partnership.
‘With Ukraine next door, Moldovans are constantly reminded of Russia’s oppression, imperialism and aggression.[‘]
As the design of the strategy appears to be unfolding, Great Britain, with U.S. covert operational support, will position themselves inside Moldova. NATO troops are already on the ground there, much to the anxiety of the average Moldovan.
The intellectually honest people of Moldova, using the reference point of prior activity by the U.S. in Ukraine, clearly see themselves being set up as cannon fodder for Western military usefulness. The Great Britain/CIA/NATO team appears likely to use the geography of Moldova to provoke Russia into some form of response.
The U.K. can then declare their troops under attack, and NATO can respond with mutual defense of the U.K. pact, via Moldova.
The baseline for the continued need to avoid any cessation of hostilities in Ukraine is financial. BlackRock and JPMorgan have exclusive rights to the “rebuilding” of Ukraine, with access to all the resources therein. Thus there is an alignment of interests between BlackRock, JPMorgan, NATO, the U.S. State Department, and the internal operatives of the Biden administration.
At the same time, the Deep State (those who control Biden), the Intelligence Community, in combination with the anti-Trump DOJ-NSD (National Security Division), are using the increased hostility to bait President-elect Trump into saying something contradictory about current U.S.-NATO policy – a Logan Act violation.
So far President Trump has remained quiet, as the provocation against our peaceful interests are ongoing. For his part, Vladimir Putin has remained reserved and careful in his response; however, as U.S./NATO missiles continue to land inside the Russian Federation, there is concern that Putin’s restrained responses may indeed escalate.
We hope there are backchannels between Moscow and Mar-a-Lago; however, without any doubt the Intelligence Community is looking to intercept any communication that might possibly be taking place. Everyone in and around the orbit of President Trump likely has national security surveillance on them.
The industrial war machine is attempting to defend itself against any peace effort.
“Troublesome” is an understatement.
Reprinted with permission from Conservative Treehouse.
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