Business
There are smart ways to diversify our exports
From the Fraser Institute
By Philip Cross
The Bank of Canada recently cut interest rates again, with further cuts likely in response to Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian exports. This continues the Bank’s reflexive turn to lower interest rates to goose growth every time the economy slows that began during the 2008 global financial crisis and reached its apex during the outbreak of the Covid pandemic when rates essentially hit their zero lower bound.
It’s time policymakers in Ottawa stop relying on easy money policies in response to every hiccup in economic growth. Lower interest rates have introduced major distortions into Canada’s economy. They have fueled excessive debt levels in all sectors of the economy, helped to create a housing bubble that will depress growth when it bursts, undermined our consensus on the usefulness of immigration when excessive demand raised the cost of shelter, and led youths to lose hope of achieving the dream of owning a home. Housing’s unsustainably large share of our economy helps undermine our potential productivity, the lack of which Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers last year called a “break the glass” emergency. However, the Bank’s own easy money policies spurs the shift of more resources to housing and encourage governments to ignore taking actions that would boost business investment and exports, the two sectors needed to improve our long-term productivity and competitiveness.
There are policy alternatives to just mechanically lowering interest rates and juicing housing demand. The silver lining in Trump’s tariff threats is they drive home to Canadians the twin follies of not diversifying our energy exports from the U.S. market and not lowering internal barriers to trade among our provinces. We witlessly ignored opportunities to move on both fronts for nearly a decade after Trump fired his opening salvo in the trade war with punitive tariffs on our aluminum and steel industries in 2017.
Energy, our leading export, depends on the U.S. market for 93 per cent of its export earnings. Canada has wasted numerous opportunities over the past decade to open overseas markets for oil and gas. The Trudeau government cancelled the Northern Gateway pipeline that would have sent Alberta crude to Asia. The proposed Energy East pipeline to send oil to New Brunswick and ultimately Europe floundered after the federal government complicated the approval process. Multiple proposals for LNG projects were rejected, although the Quebec government is reconsidering its opposition to ship natural gas from an LNG terminal in Saguenay to Europe. Quebec is not reflexively against pipelines: its former Premier Jean Charest boasts how his government oversaw one connecting crude oil imports landing at Levis to refineries in Montreal by clearly outlining the benefits to Quebecers. Restricting our oil and gas exports to the U.S. has depressed their prices, costing Canada tens of billions of dollars of lost revenue and betraying our European allies when they desperately needed alternatives to Russian natural gas supplies following its attack on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the federal government displayed little leadership in trying to get the provinces to reduce the thicket of regulations and restrictions that impair trade within Canada. The 2017 Canada Free Trade Agreement provided a road map to potentially lower internal trade barriers, but most provinces have been reluctant to tread that path. It is the height of hypocrisy for Canadians to complain about Trump’s threatened tariffs when we tolerate internal trade barriers that are every bit as important and costly to our economy. Statistics Canada, for example, found that trade within Canada moves as if there were a 7 per cent tariff on goods moving between provinces, while trade within the U.S. flows as if there was no effective tariff.
The shock and outrage Canadians are expressing about Trump’s pending 25 per cent tariff on most exports can be channeled to our benefit. Achieving that will require governments to stop our dangerous over-reliance on low interest rates to stimulate housing. Instead, the focus should be improving our access to markets outside the U.S., which are clearly viable and profitable for goods such as oil and gas. Furthermore, if we truly believe our own rhetoric about the benefits of trade, we need to take concrete steps to liberalize trade within Canada.
Philip Cross
News release from The Deep View
| Apple, already moving slowly out of the gate on generative AI, has been dealing with a number of roadblocks and mounting delays in its effort to bring a truly AI-enabled Siri to market. The problem, or, one of the problems, is that Apple used these same AI features to heavily promote its latest iPhone, which, as it says on its website, was “built for Apple Intelligence.” |
| Now, the tech giant has been accused of false advertising in a proposed class action lawsuit that argues that Apple’s “pervasive” marketing campaign was “built on a lie.” |
| The details: Apple has — if reluctantly — acknowledged delays on a more advanced Siri, pulling one of the ads that demonstrated the product and adding a disclaimer to its iPhone 16 product page that the feature is “in development and will be available with a future software update.” |
|
| Apple did not respond to a request for comment. |
| The lawsuit was first reported by Axios, and can be read here. |
| This all comes amid an executive shuffling that just took place over at Apple HQ, which put Vision Pro creator Mike Rockwell in charge of the Siri overhaul, according to Bloomberg. |
| Still, shares of Apple rallied to close the day up around 2%, though the stock is still down 12% for the year. |
Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein
Alex Epstein
This is the kind of integrity we need from industry—and from Congress.
Dear Chairman Smith and Chairman Crapo:
We, the undersigned American energy producers and investors, write to voice our principled support for full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) energy subsidies, including subsidies that would appear to be to our firms’ and industry’s benefit. This is the only moral and practical path forward if we are to truly unleash American energy.
In recent weeks, Congress has been embroiled in battles over which, if any, of the IRA energy subsidies to cut. Lobbyists representing every corner of the energy landscape, including trade groups that many of us are part of, are jockeying to preserve their own piece of the pie, claiming that it is uniquely valuable.
We have oil lobbyists fighting to keep carbon capture and hydrogen subsidies, solar and wind lobbyists fighting to keep solar and wind subsidies, biofuel lobbyists fighting to keep biofuel subsidies, and EV lobbyists fighting to keep EV subsidies.
If this continues, we will likely preserve most if not all of the subsidies, which, deep down, everyone knows are not good for America.
The fundamental truth about subsidies is very simple. For any product, including energy, a subsidy is just a way of taking money from more efficient producers—and from taxpayers—and giving it to less efficient producers. The result is always less efficient production and therefore higher costs or lower quality for Americans.
The most egregious example of subsidies’ destructiveness is the IRA’s solar and wind subsidies, which pay electric utilities to invest much more money in solar and wind than they otherwise would, and thus much less in coal and gas than they otherwise would. Ultimately this means higher electricity prices and certainly less electricity reliability for Americans.
The IRA subsidies’ devastating harm to American energy is more than enough to compel us, as energy producers, to oppose them.
But their harm goes far beyond energy, as they will dramatically increase our debt and ultimately undermine every aspect of our economy.
A central Congressional priority is to curb the national debt during the upcoming budget reconciliation exercise. But according to credible estimates, the IRA will cost over $1 trillion over the next decade and trillions more after that. Worse, the IRA subsidies are expected to misallocate, into uncompetitive business and jobs, $3 trillion of investment by 2032 and $11 trillion by 2050. That’s a disaster for our economy, and for real job opportunities.
Clearly, the right thing to do is to eliminate all these subsidies. When lobbyists say that these subsidies are essential for America, what they’re really saying is that their backers have made investments in projects that have no near term cost-effectiveness and that are totally dependent on indefinite subsidies to sustain themselves.
Most people know the truth, but are afraid to say it due to institutional pressures. Too many Congressmen are afraid of alienating trade groups. Too many trade groups are afraid of alienating their large and vocal members who have made investments hoping for indefinite subsidies. All the while, too few are talking about freedom.
That’s why we invite our colleagues to do the right thing: level with the American people, say that we made a mistake, and that those who built subsidy-dependent businesses took on the kind of risk that we do not want to reward.
Keeping the IRA subsidies—despite all the evidence that they benefit only special interests at the expense of America—risks making our nation ever more like Europe, where industries do not succeed by providing the best value to consumers, but by providing the best favors to politicians. That’s not the America we want to work in.
Sincerely,
Bud Brigham, Founder, Atlas Energy Services and Brigham Exploration
David Albin, Managing Partner, Spectra Holdings
Adam Anderson, CEO, Innovex International
Thurmon Andress, Chairman and CEO, Andress Oil
Don Bennett, Managing Partner, Bennett Ventures LP
Greg Bird, CEO and President, Jetta Operating Company
David de Roode, Partner, Lockton
Andy Eidson, CEO, Alpha Metallurgical Resources
Matt Gallagher, President and CEO, Greenlake Energy
Mike Howard, CEO, Howard Energy
Justin Thompson, CEO, Iron Senergy
Ed Kovalik, CEO, Prairie Operating Company
Thomas E. Knauff, Executive Chairman, EDP
Lance Langford, CEO, Langford Energy Partners
Mickey McKee, CEO, Kodiak Gas Services
Mike O’Shaughnessy, CEO, Lario Oil and Gas Company
D. Martin Phillips, Founder, EnCap Investments LP
Karl Pfluger, midstream executive
David Rees-Jones, President, Chief Energy
Rob Roosa, CEO, Brigham Royalties
Bobby Shackouls, Former CEO, Burlington Resources
Ross Stevens, Founder and CEO, Stone Ridge Holdings Group
Kyle Stallings, CEO, Desert Royalty Company
Justin Thompson, CEO, Iron Senergy
Mike Wallace, Partner, Wallace Family Partnership
Ladd Wilks, CEO, ProFrac
Denzil West, CEO, Admiral Permian Operating
Bill Zartler, Founder and CEO, Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure
Additional signatories (email [email protected] to add yours):
Jimmy Brock, Executive Chairman, Core Natural Resources
Ted Williams, President and CEO, Rockport Energy Solutions LLC
To make sure as many politicians as possible see this letter, help us by sharing on Twitter/X and tagging your Congressmen! Congress is currently undecided about what to do about the IRA subsidies, so now is the moment to make your voice heard.
“Energy Talking Points by Alex Epstein” is my free Substack newsletter designed to give as many people as possible
access to concise, powerful, well-referenced talking points on the latest energy, environmental,
and climate issues from a pro-human, pro-energy perspective.
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