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The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

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45 mins ago

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By David Blackmon

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

Daily Caller

Former Acting ICE Director Says Biden Admin’s Border Policies Empower Cartels, Undermine National Security

Published on September 28, 2024

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By Mariane Angela

Former Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Tom Homan criticized the Biden administration’s border policies Friday on Fox News, arguing that they empower criminal cartels and undermine national security by allowing millions of immigrants into the country.

Border Patrol has encountered more than 7 million migrants at the southern border since the Biden-Harris administration took office, according to Customs and Border Protection. Homan said that the U.S. will continue to face significant illegal immigration unless former President Donald Trump returns to office.

“They’re not going anywhere, unless President Trump’s back in the White House,” Homan told Laura Ingraham, talking about an influx of migrants from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. “Then they’re bringing thousands a day through the CBP1 app … Historic numbers. Mexico stepped up enforcement a little bit. Why? Because they don’t want President Trump to be president. You know who else don’t want President Trump to be president? The criminal cartels in Mexico who are making billions of dollars every month.”

The CBP1 is an app used by migrants seeking asylum to preschedule appointments for processing at the US-Mexico border, according to American Immigration Council.

“The government of Mexico don’t want President Trump to be president because the gravy train’s over. The terrorist organizations around the world who are using the southwest border as an entry point in this country, they don’t want President Trump to be president either,” he added.

Thousands of illegal migrants and other non-citizens convicted of serious offenses such as homicide and sexual assault are currently at large in the U.S, according to federal data disclosed in a letter on Wednesday. The letter, addressed to Republican Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, indicates that there were over 662,566 non-citizens with criminal records on the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) national docket as of July 21, encompassing both detained individuals and those not in custody.

A Venezuelan gang called Tren de Aragua is reportedly exploiting the Biden-Harris administration’s border crisis to expand its operations into the United States, with experts indicating that immigration authorities are unable to identify members of this group prior to their arrival on American soil.

During a forum hosted by Oprah Winfrey on Sept. 19, Vice President Kamala Harris gave an evasive response when asked about her strategy for tackling illegal immigration. She referenced her tenure as California’s Attorney General and a prosecutor, then shifted to discussing the failure of a bipartisan border bill, but never directly addressed the issue.

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Agriculture

Trump Floats Massive Tariffs On John Deere If Manufacturing Shifts To Mexico

Published on September 28, 2024

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By Mariane Angela

 

Former President Donald Trump issued a warning Monday about imposing 200% tariffs on John Deere products if the company relocates its manufacturing operations to Mexico.

Trump engaged with local farmers and manufacturers during an event in Smithton, Pennsylvania, about the impact of China’s economic policies on the U.S. economy, according to the Associated Press. The former president highlighted his economic strategy against Vice President Kamala Harris by pointing out the potential benefits of tariffs and increased energy production, which he argued could help lower costs and protect local industries.

Trump highlighted John Deere’s recent decision to move some manufacturing to Mexico, and he threatened a 200% tariff on the company should it proceed with its plans under his potential administration, the AP reported.

“I just noticed behind me John Deere tractors, I know a lot about John Deere. I love the company, but as you know, they announced a few days ago that they’re gonna move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico,” Trump said, according to a video posted on X. “I’m just notifying John Deere right now. If you do that, we’re putting a 200% tariff on everything that you wanna sell into the United States. So that if I win, John Deere is gonna be paying 200%.”

John Deere previously announced that it will lay off roughly 610 employees across three of its plants in Illinois and Iowa. The company announced on May 31 that it will relocate skid steer and compact track loader production from Dubuque, Iowa, to Mexico by the end of 2026 as part of a broader strategy to enhance efficiency and manage rising manufacturing costs amidst changing business conditions.

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