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The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

 

By David Blackmon

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

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Daily Caller

Former President Jimmy Carter Dies At Age 100

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Then Gov. Jimmy Carter addresses the 1976 Democratic National Convention at Madison Square Garden in New York City. (Screen Capture/CSPAN)

 

From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Ryan Meilstrup

Former President Jimmy Carter died on Sunday at age 100 after over a year in hospice care in Plains, Georgia, his son announced according to multiple outlets.

Prior to his passing, Carter was subjected to several brief hospital visits over the past few years and chose to forgo additional medical attention in February 2023.

The former president had previously suffered from several health complications, including cancer, various falls and a brain bleed. Jason Carter told CNN on May 14 that his grandfather’s time was “coming to the end,” and another grandson, Josh, told People in mid-August 2023 that “we’re in the final chapter.”

The Carter Center also announced in May 2023 that Rosalynn Carter, a staunch advocate of mental health, was diagnosed with dementia, and later entered into hospice care in mid-November. The 96-year-old former first lady passed away days later at their home in Georgia.

Carter was the 39th president of the U.S., was elected in 1976 and served the country for one term until 1981. He also served as Georgia’s 76th governor from 1971 to 1975 as a member of the Democratic Party.

The Carter administration’s accomplishments included the Panama Canal treaties, the improving of U.S. relations with China, as well as programs and initiatives under the new Departments of Energy and Education. He established The Carter Center after his presidency, a humanitarian nongovernmental organization.

Carter’s presidency faced several major challenges, like the Iran hostage crisis, decreased energy production and inflation, according to Reuters. He lost overwhelmingly lost his reelection bid to Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Following his presidency, Carter was involved in numerous philanthropic and public service efforts. He engaged in “conflict mediation” in numerous countries worldwide and led efforts to eradicate Guinea worm disease, according to The Carter Center. Carter and his wife volunteered annually for Habitat for Humanity, and Carter taught Sunday School at Maranatha Baptist Church of Plains.

In 2002, Carter received the Nobel Peace Prize “for his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.”

Carter was the longest living president in history, and he and his wife held the record for the longest first-couple marriage. He was born in Plains, Georgia, on Oct. 1, 1924, attended Georgia Tech and served in the U.S. Navy as a submariner.

Mary Lou Masters contributed to this report

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Why Trump’s Right On The Panama Canal And Greenland

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Bossie

President-elect Donald J. Trump promised that if elected he would govern in bold colors, not pale pastels. Our next president believes deeply in American Exceptionalism and is making it perfectly clear that the days of America taking a back seat to anyone are over.

Trump’s optimistic vision is for our great nation to lead once again as a beacon of freedom for centuries to come, and that we must be victorious in the great battle of ideals that is currently underway. There is simply no escaping it; the United States will continue to lead the world for good or Communist China will gladly take up the mantle and lead it for evil.

Freedom, democracy, free market capitalism and individual liberty must persevere and carry the day because socialism, oppression and the road to darkness never sleep. Trump knows that America must be vigilant and that means always being on offense.

Trump has big plans for America. This starts with undisputed economic dominance and a peace-through-strength foreign policy that makes the world safe again. When America is out front leading, there is far more reason to be optimistic about the future.

Communist China wants to replace America as the world’s global superpower and Trump fully understands this — and wholeheartedly rejects it. For decades, U.S. policy toward China was naïve and wrong. China was built-up in Washington, D.C.’s corridors of power as a partner with good intentions. But Trump, the ultimate political outsider and America’s first advocate, knew otherwise.

During his 2016 campaign for president and throughout his first term in office, Trump singlehandedly changed U.S-China policy for the better. He called out China for stealing American jobs and ripping us off economically. He also called out China’s dictatorship for rampant human rights violations and their COVID-19 cover-up.

Then President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris assumed power and immediately bent to the will of the communists in Beijing. The CCP took full advantage of the weakness of the Biden-Harris administration and flexed their muscles around the world for four long years. But on January 20, 2025, when Trump once again takes the oath of office, that all stops — and not a moment too soon.

In signature Trumpian fashion, our 45th and soon to be 47th president is already showing a much-needed sense of urgency, getting busy positioning America and the world for his presidency even before he is officially sworn in. Outgoing President Biden is nowhere to be found, and there is just no time to wait for the return of American leadership on the global stage.

Look no further than Trump’s recent announcements regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. Trump is always playing the long game and sometimes this requires four-dimensional chess. With his every move, Trump is looking at the world through the prism of what China is angling to do for the balance of the 21st century.

Trump sees the acquisition of Greenland by the United States as a matter of national security and significant strategic importance. This is simply a matter of common sense; China is expanding its influence all over the globe and it is high time for America to recognize this reality and take action. A “Greenland Purchase” — like the Louisiana Purchase — will send a message to the world that America is a strong, vibrant, future-oriented nation, laser focused on making our planet a safe place for freedom, peace and prosperity to flourish.

The same theory goes for the Panama Canal. The United States built and paid for the vitally important trade route and the worst president in history before Biden — Jimmy Carter — made a short-sighted mistake to cede control of it. The thought of future Chinese control or undue influence over the canal is a non-starter for Trump, and rightly so. Once again, common sense is guiding Trump’s thought process on this matter. China wants to dominate the world and greatly expand its interests in the Western Hemisphere, so it doesn’t take a genius to understand its lust for the Panama Canal. Once again, while it might be unpleasant to think about, America wants the canal protected for free and fair trade, and global safety and security for all. The ultimate plans of the Communist Chinese on the other hand must always be considered and for Trump, America sitting on its heels isn’t a survivable option.

When President Harry Truman famously said, “I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell,” he was talking about the tough decisions a leader must make in a complex world. Likewise, throughout the historic 2024 campaign, Trump spoke with similar honesty and transparency about the daunting task that lies before us in the years to come. Indeed, there is much work to do to get America back on the right track — and that includes making important geopolitical decisions that will make the world a safer place now and for future generations.

David Bossie is the president of Citizens United and served as a senior adviser to the Trump-Pence 2020 campaign. In 2016, Bossie served as deputy campaign manager for Donald J. Trump for President and deputy executive director for the Trump-Pence Transition Team.

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