Alberta
The Most Expensive Campaign Promise Ever – Explainer

This article was submitted by Peter McCaffrey, President 0f the Alberta Institute
Over the coming weeks, I’ll be analyzing some of the big policy announcements that the major parties in the Alberta election make.
So, today, we’re going to kick things off with a look at an issue that made headlines yesterday – electricity policy.
I know, I can almost see your eyes glaze over through your webcam, but bear with me – this is important!
Last March, Justin Trudeau announced the release of the federal government’s “2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada’s Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy”.
Who could be opposed to Clean Air and a Strong Economy, right?
The devil, as always, was in the details and, in this case, the details are called the “Clean Electricity Regulations”.
The federal government has been talking for some time about “transitioning” Canada’s entire electricity sector to being “net-zero” (ie: no net carbon emissions) by 2050.
The “Clean Electricity Regulations”, though, are the federal government’s plan to speed up this transition and require the provinces to have net-zero electricity grids by 2035 instead.
Now, for some provinces, that won’t actually be too challenging, as they already generate the vast majority of their electricity from Hydro.
But for Alberta (and Saskatchewan), it will be practically impossible – and insanely expensive.
That hasn’t stopped Rachel Notley and the NDP from promising to follow the federal government’s lead and do it, though.
So, let’s take a deep dive into exactly why this policy could be so harmful to Alberta.
First, in Alberta, about 85% of electricity on the commercial market comes from non-renewable resources.
That means that, in order to achieve net-zero here, we’d have to rebuild almost literally the entirety of our electricity market in the next 12 years.
If that sounds expensive to you – you’d be right!
In July 2020, when the federal government first started floating this idea, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) wrote a report that calculated that transitioning Alberta to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 would cost $52 billion in additional capital investments and generation operating costs.
Yes, you read that right – $52 billion.
And, to be clear, that $52 billion isn’t the entire price of transitioning to net-zero – that would be much more – the $52 billion is just the extra price of doing it faster, by 2035 instead of 2050!
Next, fast forward to yesterday, and a new report was been released that assesses those direct capital and infrastructure costs calculated by AESO, and works out what the additional indirect economic harm to Alberta would be of being forced to make this rapid transition.
This new report was written by a group called Navius, who are traditionally seen as a left-leaning environmental economic research group, and even they say that the indirect impacts to Alberta’s economy will be enormous – $35 billion – and that’s before they even account for inflation.
So, now, thanks to these two reports, we know exactly what the federal government’s 2035 net-zero electricity grid plan will cost Alberta.
$52 billion in direct costs to upgrade and build infrastructure, plus at least $35 billion in indirect economic costs, for a total of at least $87 billion.
And, as I mentioned before, Rachel Notley and the NDP are fully on board.
They aren’t advertising their support, of course.
Just like with the carbon tax in 2015, they aren’t campaigning on this policy, and they haven’t mentioned it on their website or included it in their campaign material.
But, at a private NDP event last year and in a few occasional tweets, Rachel Notley has confirmed that the NDP is committed to this idea.
And, just like in 2015 with the carbon tax, they’re hoping Albertans won’t notice until after the election.
Let’s be clear, though – a policy of implementing a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 makes the carbon tax look like a bargain by comparison.
The carbon tax costs Albertans about $2 billion.
Don’t get me wrong, that’s a huge amount of money.
But $87 billion (or more) over just 12 years is more than $7 billion a year.
I really worry that people don’t understand just how much money we’re talking about here.
It’s an absolutely insane amount.
Let’s try to put it into scale…
$87 billion is more than the entire Alberta government budget ($63 billion).
$87 billion is 48 times the cost of the Red Deer Hospital.
$87 billion is 290 times as much as the province’s “controversial” Calgary arena investment.
$87 billion would pay for the salaries of every single nurse in Alberta for 70 years.
One more… just for fun…
$87 billion would buy a Tesla Model 3 for literally every household in the province.
Yes, seriously – you get a Tesla, you get a Tesla, everyone gets a Tesla!
This is honestly such an insane amount of money that I’m genuinely not even sure that the NDP realizes exactly what they’ve committed to here.
“Never has a politician committed to a policy that would cost this much to implement. This is not only unrealistic, but it is dangerous to the long-term health and viability of our economy,” said UCP Candidate Brian Jean.
It is the single biggest election promise in Alberta history, and it’s not even close.
Thankfully, here at the Alberta Institute, our team is working hard to assess and analyze campaign promises to make sure that you have the facts at your fingertips, and that you’re fully aware of just how much our politician’s promises are going to cost you.
I’d love to be able to bring you more of this type of analysis, so if you support our work, please help us continue to provide you with the level of in-depth policy research by making a donation to support our work:
The Alberta Institute is an independent, libertarian, public policy think tank that aims to advance personal freedom and choice in Alberta.
Founded in 2018, we work to develop and promote solutions to a wide range of municipal, provincial, and federal public policy issues in a strictly non-partisan way.
Our solutions are informed by our belief in a free and open society built on individual rights, private property, peace, voluntaryism, free markets, free minds, free trade, free movement, self-ownership, and reason.
We promote these beliefs through a wide variety of activities and actions, including research, data analysis, publications, newsletters, advocacy, events, conferences, and more.
Independence:
The Alberta Institute’s work is funded by thousands of small-dollar donors from across Alberta who believe in – and wish to support – our mission.
We don’t accept any government funding – and we never will – because we think Albertans should be free to choose, for themselves, which organizations to support.
The donations we receive from our supporters allow us to hire dedicated research staff and volunteer coordinators, publish and promote our findings, host events to help get the message out and connect with the community, offer internships and other opportunities to young Albertans, and much more.
We also depend on our grassroots volunteers, spread across nearly every community in the Province, to help with our mission of advancing personal freedom and choice across Alberta.
Alberta
Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
Alberta
Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
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