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Bruce Dowbiggin

The Housing Debacle: How Trudeau Turned Off Millenials

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The numbers are out, and it’s unanimous. If you’re a young couple with kids, still want to buy a detached home in a location that has steady, well-paying jobs then Alberta remains the last refuge for Canada’s stressed-out middle class Millennials (those not in tent cities calling for the eradication of Israel).

But the widow is closing rapidly. Others have noticed. In 2023-2024 over 200,000 others took heed and made the province their new home. (No word if they were told about snow on Victoria Day by their realtor.) No surprise that most of them are flooding in from Ontario and B.C. where $750 K buys you an unheated shed behind your parents’ home.

According to Zoocasa $750 K. is the average price for a home in booming Calgary. Not a giveaway, but compared to Canadian Real Estate Association’s April benchmark price for a single-family home in the Greater Vancouver Area ($2.8 million) or the Greater Toronto Area ($1.3 million) it’s a positive steal. Edmonton’s average price clicks in at $493 K (you’d have to put up with Oilers fans) while $417,500 gets you a roof in Red Deer, located between the two metropoli.

As we say, get ‘em while they’re hot. Between numbered holding companies and offshore mystery shoppers, the Alberta market is poised for further generous bumps— particularly if the prime minister’s hopes of quashing Alberta’s energy industry don’t reach fruition before his demise in the next federal election.

Investors are on the prowl. Take Grand Prairie. Please. Rim shot. The city in the province’s northwest (average single-family home price of $379,262) is heating up as an investment. Says Zoocasa. “Despite its lower price, the city saw a 10% year-over-year price increase, highlighting its potential as a good investment opportunity.”

You get the picture. Grand Prairie. Medicine Hat. Lethbridge. Cochrane. For bargain investors you can buy a view in the Maritimes or a percolating economy in Saskatoon. But you can’t combine the two as well as Alberta does.

This runaway housing spiral is a bonus for current owners and a burden for young people. But it’s the worst for the Liberal federal government that likes to throw money at problems but never makes it stick— particularly in the housing market. (Justin Trudeau and his urban planners are now reaping the results of their brainwave to prioritize shoebox condo construction over single-housing units). The most recent boondoggle has finance minister Chrystia Freeland shovelling bucks to provinces for new housing— particularly in the green-conscious or lower-income demos.

The focus-group-approved Housing Accelerator Fund, a $4B initiative, will be topped up with an additional $400 million “to encourage municipalities to incentivize building by making transformative changes, such as removing prohibitive zoning barriers”. Also no natural gas stoves or three-car garages.

It all sounds wonderful at the photo ops but like Trudeau’s unfulfilled promise to plant two billion new trees, the idea of this government building 1.2 million new homes is risible. If they can get past zoning hurdles, financing restrictions and finding enough trades people it means building a preposterous home an hour for the foreseeable future.

Then there is the bind created by the jump in interest rates after Trudeau promised they’d stay low forever. Mortgage payment as a percentage of income for the median home price fell to 58.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2024. But that came after the bank’s affordability monitor stood at its worst levels since the 1980s to the end of 2023. Loose credit from Trudeau’s Bank of Canada supports this unreasonable cost level.

(That also doesn’t address Canadian rental properties. Between 2011 and 2016, the market lost 322,600 private rental units with monthly rents below $750. Investors are content to sit on empty properties, gentrify them into “condos” and flip them when the market improves.)

Numbers, numbers, numbers. It’s true. But the housing bind is a unique political problem for the Liberals, too— and will be for the Conservatives when they make it into office. Earlier generations of Boomers and Gen Xers have had their housing crises. Boomers were hit by the collapse of Ontario’s real estate market combined with 18 percent interest rates from the late 1980s to mid 1990s.

Gen X was sideswiped by the 2008 Investment collapse that wiped out savings. The reaction they received from their elders, who’d experienced the 1930s Depression and WW II, was ”suck it up, buttercup”. Take that whine and shove it.

However coddled these cohorts had been, they’d also experienced tough love from authority figures. While it wasn’t “bare feet and barrel staves” there was always a check on expectations. When Paul Martin and Ralph Klein, among others, put on the hair shirt in the mid 1990s to cure the excesses of Pierre Trudeau’s spending it was a sobering period of self-examination for Boomers and Gen Xers alike.

But Millenials are the generation of the 17th-place ribbon for meritorious attendance. Indulged and rewarded beyond their accomplishments they have come to personify DEI entitlement. No one is cut from the team. Everyone gets favour. Tick the boxes, and the world shall be yours.

The tent cities are the worst manifestations of this cohort. But, their feet having rarely touched ground, the expectations the rest of the Millenials place on government to award them homes and great jobs is not leavened by history’s example. They are clearly not amused by Happy Ways unless they get a guaranteed payout for being so perfect. Abacus polling shows the Conservatives at 32 percent among 18-29 year olds, surpassing Trudeau’s formerly strongest base, now at 28 percent. If those numbers don’t scare the Liberals, nothing will.

Trudeau has lived in government housing the past decade, so this is all news to him and his trust fund. But the headline on Election Night just might be Revenge of the Millenials. Not that it will take us back to the days of affordable housing.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster, he’s a regular contributor to Sirius XM Canada Talks Ch. 167. Now for pre-order, new from the team of Evan & Bruce Dowbiggin— Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL & Changed Hockey. From Espo to Boston in 1967 to Gretz in L.A. in 1988 to Patrick Roy leaving Montreal in 1995, the stories behind the story. Launching in paperback and Kindle on #Amazon this week. Destined to be a hockey best seller. https://www.amazon.ca/Deal-Trades-Stunned-Changed-Hockey-ebook/dp/B0D236NB35/

BRUCE DOWBIGGIN Award-winning Author and Broadcaster Bruce Dowbiggin's career is unmatched in Canada for its diversity and breadth of experience . He is currently the editor and publisher of Not The Public Broadcaster website and is also a contributor to SiriusXM Canada Talks. His new book Cap In Hand was released in the fall of 2018. Bruce's career has included successful stints in television, radio and print. A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada's top television sports broadcaster for his work with CBC-TV, Mr. Dowbiggin is also the best-selling author of "Money Players" (finalist for the 2004 National Business Book Award) and two new books-- Ice Storm: The Rise and Fall of the Greatest Vancouver Canucks Team Ever for Greystone Press and Grant Fuhr: Portrait of a Champion for Random House. His ground-breaking investigations into the life and times of Alan Eagleson led to his selection as the winner of the Gemini for Canada's top sportscaster in 1993 and again in 1996. This work earned him the reputation as one of Canada's top investigative journalists in any field. He was a featured columnist for the Calgary Herald (1998-2009) and the Globe & Mail (2009-2013) where his incisive style and wit on sports media and business won him many readers.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

On The Clock: Win Fast Or Forever Lose Your Chance

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Play this drinking game. Every time some football analyst on TV says during the course of a game, “He’ll be a star for this team for years” take a drink. You’ll be tipsy in a hurry.

Maybe in the old days, Skip. But the concept of the players you’re loving now lasting very long with NFL, NHL, NBA or even MLB teams has come and gone. The new model was never more apparent as when the NFL No.1 seed Detroit Lions, replete with young stars, were blindsided from the NFL playoffs by upstart Washington’s rookie QB Jaden Daniels.

Heavily favoured Detroit (10 point favourites in some places) was loaded with superstars on their first contract. Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson (injured), Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Ali McNeil (injured). Added to veteran QB Jared Goff and a sprinkling of veterans they seemed perfectly balanced.

Except the new mantra says you can only win a Super Bowl in this time of salary-cap hell with a HOF QB or a QB on his affordable rookie deal. Goff is neither, and to emphasize the mantra he threw four picks and fumbled once en route to the heartbreak loss. The dynasty turned into as ‘die-nasty”.

In the old days you’d just say “we will get them next year” and hope for better luck. But within two years the Lions will have to do a painful triage of their glittering young stars. You can’t pay them all, so who will go and who will stay? Adding to the misery of the salary-cap mandated chop will be can you get value for them in trades?

The Lions are far from the only ones dealing with leagues that value parity ahead of dynasty. In the NHL the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs are hearing the steady tick-tock counting down on the NHL’s cap machine. The two clubs lost consistently for a decade to score top picks in the draft. Riding the skills of Conor McDavid and Auston Matthews they’ve brushed up against a Stanley Cup but have yet to do the deal.

As every fan of the teams knows it’s a race to add the proper players to the roster to compliment the young stars before they get too expensive. McDavid is an unrestricted FA after 2025-26 and as the league’s top star he will command the maximum under the salary cap where ever he lands. If that’s Edmonton he and Leon Draisaitl will be added to Darnell Nurse, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent Hopkins as a large portion of the cap. Can the Oilers balance these stars and still pay defensemen and goalies?

Ditto the Maple Leafs who have Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev hogging the top end of the cap. Can they find the right pieces at a cheap price to create a team that will reach the Final, let alone win the Stanley Cup? And can they do it before their core players start to decline?

For those reasons, NHL teams and players were fixated on the news that there will be no more escrow deductions taken from players the rest of the season. That led many to surmise that the salary cap will be going up significantly for the next few years, allowing teams more latitude to complete rosters and elite players to be paid their worth to the league. Even if true the increases will be proportionate, forcing the same constraints of a cap at the top and bottom of payrolls.

None of these economic concerns seem to bother the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. With just a luxury tax, not a salary cap, to restrain them the Dodgers have added Japanese star Riki Sasaki and bullpen ace Taylor Scott to their payroll in the past week. This in addition to two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Their payroll now exceeds $370 M. For 2025. By comparison the Pittsburgh Pirates sit at just $77 M for 2025 and the fans are outraged demanding the owner sell.

The Dodgers justify the spending because they are building a global brand. While the competing leagues constrict their payrolls to pay service to parity, MLB is allowing the Dodgers to take a soccer attitude to their payroll. The arguments for parity are pretty weak when you consider that their have-nots are happy to take the bounty of great TV/ digital/ logo revenue but refuse to improve their teams.

Which leaves us with the Toronto Blue Jays, definitely a large-market team trying to spend like one. Monday they announced the signing of FA Anthony Santander, who had 44 homers for Baltimore last season. This follows an offseason of humiliation where the team has made no progress signing its superstars Vladdy Guerrero and Bo Bichette.

Like NFL Lions or NHL Maple Leafs, the clock is ticking on their core players as they become prohibitively expensive. Should they sign both? One? Or trade them to get value before they scram to LA or New York? Right now they seem caught between bad options.

Meanwhile the underwhelming Jays management was punked— yet again—in pursuit of a high-profile Japanese FA. The very visible failure left many wondering if it was the market or the management that is holding back Toronto. Which might be another drinking game. Take a drink every time the Jays management swings and misses on a high-profile free agent. You’ll be in detox pretty soon.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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Bruce Dowbiggin

No, Really. Carney Is An Outsider. And Libs Are Done

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The recent appearance of Liberal-leader-in-waiting Mark Carney on the Daily Show has delighted a small segment of the Canadian voting pool and enraged a goodly part as well. During his nuzzle session with a highly uncritical Jon Stewart Carney announced that he was running to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and then prime minister for however long that lasts.

(If this distinction seems trivial we would recall that then-CBC vice president Kirstine Stewart once upbraided us for saying her actor husband was supporting Trudeau’s bid to be PM. A choleric Stewart said we’d got the story wrong. How so, we asked? He’s supporting him to be Liberal leader, she thundered. Not the PM. As if this were a distinction worth making.)

Back to Carney. To understand the gravity of his announcement on the Daily Show one must remember that for a generation of concussed Liberals and NDP hacks Stewart’s show from 1999 to 2016 was the Yankee Stadium of talk shows. In their estimation, Stewart was Reggie Jackson, mashing the fastball, while CBC’s At Issue panel was Jesus Ramirez, striking out on the curve in A Ball.

So for Stewart to grant time to an unknown Canadian banker who still thinks Greta Thunberg is relevant was intriguing. Or someone paid someone. In any event, the gotcha’ line from the chat was Carney, formerly governor of the Banks of Canada and the UK and now advisor to PMJT, repeating Stewart’s suggestion that he was the “outsider” in the race to succeed Trudeau.

For most sentient Canadians this was an epic humblebrag for the billionaire son of a former governor of the Bank of Canada whose wife does investment business with Trudeau eminence gris Gerry Butts. If Carney was an outsider what constituted an insider? It was to laugh.

Social media— that part not consumed by the visit of Alberta premier Danielle Smith and gadfly investor Kevin O’Leary to Mar A Lago— boiled with sarcasm and dismissal. Those wily Liberals aren’t going to fool us now, just as we are on the cusp of Pierre Poilievre taking power. No doubt Carney’s team— including PMJT— laughed in derision.

The Liberals culture club think that, if they could pass off Skippy as remotely capable, they can dress up Carney as an outsider for gullible Canadian voters.

But Carney may have accidentally have tripped over the truth. He is now an outsider. You see, the dotty Libs think the machine that selected/ elected Skippy in 2015 still works. CBC, G&M, Macleans, TorStar would decide the candidates and curate the process. Sadly for Butts, Telford and Skippy the Family Compact has been supplanted by social media both here and in the USA.

The turning point of Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential race was him pivoting away from the staged debates and ponderous Sunday morning shows of legacy media toward not just podcasts by Joe Rogan but also those of under-30 stars such as Theo Von, Adin Ross and Lex Fridman, among many. The cred he gained from the Gen X demo helped him sweep the Dems away. Elon Musk breaking the DEMs censorship strategy on Twitter (now X) also sent a shot at Team Kamala that the game had changed.

While Canada doesn’t have as many counter-culture podcasts as the U.S., there are enough young voters ignoring Canada’s chattering class to bury the Libs under Carney or the rest of the Goof Troop. No one with a pulse and a vote under 50 buys the old rag bag. It’s over for guys as exciting as a carrot expecting to harvest younger Canadians. They’re playing to an empty hall with the bespoke Carney.

This ironic twist is that all this is lost on Woke nobs who brag about their hip sense of humour. Who follow Stewart and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow to keep up with Trump Derangement. Who record SNL Update to hang on the sophomoric stylings of Michael Ché and Colin Jost. Who can recite extended bits from Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Now they are the punch line. The outrage over the Mar A Lago visit by Smith and O’Leary is a perfect example of their dissociative thinking. The staged pictures had “blood boiling” in many progressives. “@OrbitStudios Jan 13 So… Kevin O’Leary is arrested immediately for treason the next time he sets foot in Canada, correct? I’m absolutely being serious here.” And that’s a mild response.

These armies of Liberal bots fumed over the treachery of talking about the economy with the man about to become the U.S. president again. Awareness much? None of the howler monkeys reacted this way when heroes like PMJT and his cabinet burned clouds of carbon to lobby the eunuchs of WEF, EU and Davos in Europe. They were hot on selling out Canada to the globalist gang’s climate narrative, and they couldn’t get there quickly enough. Crickets from the bot community.

But this is different, of course. Sure. In the past their pals in the Ottawa Press Club could protect these hypocrisies, burying unfortunate stories by segueing to David Suzuki saving seals or Margaret Attwood decrying the medieval treatment of Canadian women in the 21st century.

But social media obliterated the insider game. So much so that Trudeau and his cabinet cronies began banning speech as fast as possible. But it’s too late. Like the ghost leg syndrome, the script to shove an unelected climate crazy into the PMO will seem real to the Libs. But don’t be fooled. The end is nigh for the old way. Just look at Stewart’s ratings to see just how dead it really is.

Bruce Dowbiggin @dowbboy is the editor of Not The Public Broadcaster  A two-time winner of the Gemini Award as Canada’s top television sports broadcaster. His new book Deal With It: The Trades That Stunned The NHL And Changed Hockey is now available on Amazon. Inexact Science: The Six Most Compelling Draft Years In NHL History, his previous book with his son Evan, was voted the seventh-best professional hockey book of all time by bookauthority.org. You can see all his books at brucedowbigginbooks.ca.

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