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The Cost to Western Canada if Steven Guilbeault Copies Biden’s Assault on LNG

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From EnergyNow.ca

By Jim Warren

” if all of the gas exported by Canada to the US from 2014 to 2021, the years encompassing the price depression, had instead been exported to Europe at average European prices, Canadian natural gas revenues would have been US $100.7 billion higher “

What would it cost western Canada’s natural gas producers if the federal government does to them what it did to tidewater export opportunities for petroleum?

This question became topical last week when the Biden Democrats announced they would block construction of new LNG export facilities in the US. It makes sense to get a handle on the size of revenues at stake if future development of LNG export capacity in Canada is similarly at risk. Indeed, it seems quite reasonable to worry that Steven Guilbeault will take inspiration from the Biden decision and try to do something similarly silly in Canada.

Getting pipelines to tidewater is something Canada’s petroleum industry has been counting on to improve export revenues. This was a particularly urgent hope during the eight-year oil price depression that lasted from Fall 2014 until early Winter 2022. It was, and still is, assumed exporting Canadian diluted bitumen (dilbit) into new non-US markets will allow producers to avoid the costly differential charges assessed by American buyers and refiners.

What if scenarios floated during the eight-year price slump showed that had the Northern Gateway and Trans Mountain pipelines been completed, Canadian producers could have earned billions in additional revenues. Estimates of lost revenues ranged from a Fraser Institute estimate of $15.8 billion for 2018 alone to my own low-ball estimate for losses of $7 billion to $9 billion for that same year. Numerous back of the napkin “what if” calculations for lost revenues produced in coffee shops across the prairies helped fuel frustration and anger at federal government environmental policies intended to limit global warming by cancelling pipelines.

Fast forward to 2024 and we can see that similar conditions apply to western Canada’s natural gas sector. The US is virtually the sole export market for Canadian natural gas. Looking back at the period from 2010-2019 we find that the prices paid by US importers for Canadian natural gas were less than half what Europeans were paying. The price spread became exponentially wider beginning in 2016. It peaked in 2022 when the European price was six times higher than the US price. The European gas price will be five times higher than US prices for 2024.

All else being equal, if all of the gas exported by Canada to the US from 2014 to 2021, the years encompassing the price depression, had instead been exported to Europe at average European prices, Canadian natural gas revenues would have been US $100.7 billion higher than what they actually were.

Of course “all else” is far from being equal. The $100.7 billion figure does not account for the cost of converting natural gas to LNG or the added costs of ocean transportation. In addition, the estimate assumes enough Canadian pipelines and tidewater terminals could be built to accommodate all of the gas currently flowing to the US.

The yawning chasm between US and EU prices today is of course largely the result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022.  EU sanctions aimed at Russian energy exports and the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines has put Europe firmly on track for developing new sources of natural gas.

Notwithstanding the bland platitudes and unreachable targets emanating from the most recent COP conference in the UAE, there are policy makers in many countries who recognize the important role natural gas can play in reducing global GHG emissions. For example, in December 2021 the European Commission made changes to its GHG emissions law. It now allows both nuclear energy and natural gas to be considered suitable transition fuels during the period while renewable options become more viable.

Lately, there has been a popular backlash in Europe and the UK over excessively zealous green transition initiatives. It turns out a lot of people are unwilling to accept additional increases to their cost of living even when told it is necessary to “save the planet.” People won’t stand for a prohibitively expensive green transition. And they never will be willing to freeze in the dark; especially when an acceptable option like natural gas is available.

Biden’s bizarre decision to block the expansion of US LNG export facilities was probably not motivated by a desperate desire or useful effort to curb GHG emissions. It is more likely a ham-handed attempt to staunch the Democrats’ loss of support among the young and the woke. Regardless of Biden’s motivation, we might reasonably worry that Canada’s environment minister will want to copy him. You might think the collapse in support for Canada’s Liberals and common sense would militate against the imposition of any additional half-baked environmental policy. But when has common sense ever intervened in the creation of environmentally virtuous policy on the part of the Liberals in Ottawa?

I have provided my data sources and relevant tables below

Hypothetical question: What if the exports to the US had been exported to Europe?

the cost of canada's steven guilbeault copying biden’s assault on lng 1

Source: derived by the author from the sources and data provided below

Natural gas prices for the US and Europe 2022 to 2024 in US$ per million British thermal units (BTUs) 2023 and 2024 figures are forecasts.*

the cost of canada's steven guilbeault copying biden’s assault on lng 2

Source: derived from Statist: Natual gas commodity prices in Europe and the United States from 1980 to 2022 with forecasts for 2023 and 2024.
https://www-statista-com.libproxy.uregina.ca/statistics/252791/natural-gas-prices/

Canadian natural gas exports in billion cubic metres (all to US)

the cost of canada's steven guilbeault copying biden’s assault on lng 3

Source: Statista. Natural gas exports by pipeline from Canada from 2010 to 2021 (in billion cubic metres).
https://www-statista-com.libproxy.uregina.ca/statistics/567703/natural-gas-exports-from-canada/

 

Natural gas prices for the US and Europe 2010 to 2024 in US$ per million British thermal units (BTUs) 2023 and 2024 figures are forecasts.*

the cost of canada's steven guilbeault copying biden’s assault on lng 4

Source: Statista: Natural gas commodity prices in Europe and the United States from 1980 to 2022 with forecasts for 2023 and 2024.
https://www-statista-com.libproxy.uregina.ca/statistics/252791/natural-gas-prices/

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2025 Federal Election

Canada drops retaliatory tariffs on automakers, pauses other tariffs

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Quick Hit:

Canada has announced it will roll back retaliatory tariffs on automakers and pause several other tariff measures aimed at the United States. The move, unveiled by Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, is designed to give Canadian manufacturers breathing room to adjust their supply chains and reduce reliance on American imports.

Key Details:

  • Canada will suspend 25% tariffs on U.S. vehicles for automakers that maintain production, employment, and investment in Canada.
  • A broader six-month pause on tariffs for other U.S. imports is intended to help Canadian sectors transition to domestic sourcing.
  • A new loan facility will support large Canadian companies that were financially stable before the tariffs but are now struggling.

Diving Deeper:

Ottawa is shifting its approach to the escalating trade war with Washington, softening its economic blows in a calculated effort to stabilize domestic manufacturing. On Tuesday, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne outlined a new set of trade policies that provide conditional relief from retaliatory tariffs that have been in place since March. Automakers, the hardest-hit sector, will now be eligible to import U.S. vehicles duty-free—provided they continue to meet criteria that include ongoing production and investment in Canada.

“From day one, the government has reacted with strength and determination to the unjust tariffs imposed by the United States on Canadian goods,” Champagne stated. “We’re giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on U.S. suppliers.”

The tariff battle, which escalated in April with Canada slapping a 25% tax on U.S.-imported vehicles, had caused severe anxiety within Canada’s auto industry. John D’Agnolo, president of Unifor Local 200, which represents Ford employees in Windsor, warned the BBC the situation “has created havoc” and could trigger a recession.

Speculation about a possible Honda factory relocation to the U.S. only added to the unrest. But Ontario Premier Doug Ford and federal officials were quick to tamp down the rumors. Honda Canada affirmed its commitment to Canadian operations, saying its Alliston facility “will operate at full capacity for the foreseeable future.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney reinforced the message that the relief isn’t unconditional. “Our counter-tariffs won’t apply if they (automakers) continue to produce, continue to employ, continue to invest in Canada,” he said during a campaign event. “If they don’t, they will get 25% tariffs on what they are importing into Canada.”

Beyond the auto sector, Champagne introduced a six-month tariff reprieve on other U.S. imports, granting time for industries to explore domestic alternatives. He also rolled out a “Large Enterprise Tariff Loan Facility” to support big businesses that were financially sound prior to the tariff regime but have since been strained.

While Canada has shown willingness to ease its retaliatory measures, there’s no indication yet that the U.S. under President Donald Trump will reciprocate. Nevertheless, Ottawa signaled its openness to further steps to protect Canadian businesses and workers, noting that “additional measures will be brought forward, as needed.”

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Business

DOGE Is Ending The ‘Eternal Life’ Of Government

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By David Bossie

In his 1964 “A Time For Choosing” speech, Ronald Reagan famously said, “a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this earth.” And for more than 60 years, President Reagan’s words have proven to be true. However, with the historic re-election of President Donald Trump and the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the leadership of Elon Musk, the Gipper’s contention is finally being challenged – and not a moment too soon.

The Trump Administration inherited a horribly bloated federal government in dire need of common sense streamlining from top to bottom. For decades, the executive branch has expanded at an incomprehensible rate and along with it, so has waste, fraud, and abuse. Presidents on both sides of the aisle have made promises to tighten the government’s belt, shrink the bureaucracy, and return power to the people where it belongs. Those efforts for the most part – however well-intentioned – never got off the ground. The reality is that when politicians have been forced to choose between a legislative priority and cutting government spending, cuts are always the first casualty. But currently, with our $36 trillion national debt spiraling out of control, reining in the size and scope of government is no longer a choice, but a necessity.

President Trump is the perfect leader for these trying times. He’s battletested and fears nothing – and no challenge is too large. Whether it’s securing the border, growing the economy, forging peace in Ukraine and the Middle East, or negotiating fair trade deals, this president is on a mission to save America. And if any chief executive is going to have success at deconstructing the administrative state, it’s Trump the steel-spined change agent. The shadowy deep state doesn’t scare him, the biased liberal media can’t intimidate him, and this time there are no phony partisan investigations aiming to sidetrack him. Trump made a promise to bring fiscal responsibility back to governing, and along with Musk and DOGE, they’re finally conducting the “audit with teeth” that the American people have been waiting for, and their hard work is turning out to be infectious.

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With each passing day, a different member of the cabinet is announcing a new cut, discovering a duplicative program, or updating an antiquated system to steer us away from the fiscal cliff that’s rapidly approaching. When the president also happens to be a highly successful businessman, making the business operate more smoothly and for less money is the name of the game. Trump has brought this mindset to the White House and according to recent polling 77 percent favor a full review of government spending.

President Trump is going back to the basics that have become taboo in Washington, like asking fundamental questions about whether an agency has been successful in its mission or if a program is still necessary. In the case of the Education Department, Trump sees an emergency and is not willing to kick the can down the road any longer. The president believes that education excellence for our children is essential so America can compete for generations to come. Drastic reform is long overdue and that means moving education decisions back to state and local officials – and parents. That’s why President Trump is taking the steps to confront the failed status quo and close the underperforming department so we can turnaround lackluster public schools and low-test scores.

Similarly, with the decision to end USAID and slash foreign aid, Trump and DOGE are simply putting America first. America is handing out billions upon billions in taxpayer dollars around the globe on programs that should be spent on fixing our own domestic problems. The plan to decentralize and modernize the Agriculture Department is another great example of thinking outside the box. The American people understand the rationale that downtown Washington, D.C. is the last place decisions about farming should be made. Relocating the department to various hubs around the heartland is common sense.

Additionally, the announcement that the Department of Health and Human Services will cut 20,000 full-time employees is part of President Trump’s vision to “right-size the federal government and unleash the private sector again” in the words of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. And word that the Trump Administration is planning to work with Congress to finally defund National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service is welcome news to millions of Americans who believe sending taxpayer funds to biased news outlets is wrong.

DOGE is also doing courageous work at the Social Security Administration (SSA). The amazing efforts to identify individuals who are either deceased, in the country illegally, or otherwise ineligible will help stave off the program’s insolvency, which experts predict is only ten years away.  When a DOGE official disclosed that 40 percent of the calls made to SSA are from would-be fraudsters trying to exploit the system, it’s become all too obvious that new safeguards must be adopted.

When it comes to the question of how much money DOGE will ultimately end up saving taxpayers, in the context of our $36 trillion debt crisis, the more the better. However, the overall change in mindset – forcing government to operate efficiently and responsibly like businesses and families – and passing that mindset onto future administrations is perhaps the most critical shift that can be made. In fact, in an ideal scenario, every state, county, and city would have its very own DOGE operation. We must get serious about cutting government waste now or we’ll go bankrupt. That’s just the reality of the situation and President Trump knows it.

David Bossie is the president of Citizens United and served as a senior adviser to the Trump-Pence 2020 campaign. In 2016, Bossie served as deputy campaign manager for Donald J. Trump for President and deputy executive director for the Trump-Pence Transition Team.

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