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The Chasm Between Pro and Anti Pipeline Debate in Two Opinions

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28 minute read

In early January we published an opinion from a reader entitled:

Open letter to Canadians opposing Canadian Pipelines and Oilsands

It generated significant readership and response.  You can click on the graphic to the left to read it now, or you can find it included later in this story. Reviewing it will give context to another opinion, this one from Neville Wells, a resident of British Columbia.

These two differing opinions illustrate the massive idealogical gap that exists in the debate around Canada’s energy industry.  If you’d like to share your opinion we’d like to hear about it.  Send us your thoughts at [email protected]

Open letter to Demian Newman, in response to his article appearing on “Todayville”.

Demian…

Thank you for putting out your thoughts and perspective on the pipeline issues that are on the top of everyone’s mind. I’d like to respond with a few thoughts of my own.

By way of background, I am someone who has, and is, opposing certain pipeline projects in western Canada. I am a native Calgarian who has over 25 years of professional environmental consulting experience and I have worked directly or indirectly for most of the majors on projects like Mackenzie Valley Pipeline, Trans Mountain Jasper National Park Looping, Georgia Straight Crossing, and many, many others. I know the oil and gas industry, its environmental practices, and effects. I have also worked for citizens, mostly farmers, First Nations and ENGOs who found themselves in conflict with the oil and gas industry. I have directly participated in dozens of regulatory hearings in front of the National Energy Board, the Alberta Energy Regulator, Joint Review Panels and other regulatory bodies. In the course of the last three decades I have taken both federal and provincial regulators to their respective courts of appeal on several occasions. Most recently, I challenged the TCPL Prince Rupert LNG pipeline and after being initially denied by the National Energy Board I was successful at the Federal Court of Appeal. As you may know that project did not proceed. I am currently challenging the TCPL Coastal GasLink pipeline in a National Energy Board regulatory proceeding that I initiated and I believe I’m solid legal grounds and that I will likely succeed in that challenge.

So I have a comprehensive understanding of most aspects of the oil and gas industry, in particular pipelines, and a good working knowledge of the rest. I have 25 years of professional environmental experience and am very familiar with the legislative, regulatory and public policy context in which the western Canadian oil and gas industry operates. In summary, I think I understand the industry, pipelines and more specifically its environmental consequences.

Please forgive my long winded preamble but I want to impress upon you that I am not your average tree hugger. My concerns about the oil and gas industry are hard earned over 30 years and are based on experience, facts, reason and good science. So with that said, I have the following to say about your open letter…

First, this is not a comprehensive review; instead I will focus on just a few highlights.

One of your major premises in your open letter is that Canada, and specifically the Oil and Gas industry, has world leading environmental standards and practices. This is simply not true.

For example we do not have an equivalent to the US Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act or the Endangered Species Act. Oh sure, we have the federal Species at Risk Act but the consensus is out – it doesn’t work. And why, because of intensive government lobbying by the powerful oil and gas industry to ensure any efforts to address endangered species do not have an adverse economic effect on industry.

I could go on at length about endangered caribou, sage grouse, westslope cutthroat trout and the list goes on and on., but I’ve made my point.

As for regulations, there are many problems with our current regulatory system, most notably that the government so-called “public interest” regulators, for example the National Energy Board, the Alberta Energy Regulator and the BC Oil and Gas Commission are literally and figuratively captive regulators whose credibility with the general public is near zero. We don’t believe anything they say and why should we.

Let’s not forget the weak environmental assessment legislation we have in this country and the efforts by government regulators and industry to block public participation in the environmental review process.

For example, in a recent Alberta Energy Regulator decision a SW Alberta land owner was denied a hearing on a Level 3 sour gas well where his land and residence was within the emergency response zone and where his only access and egress from his residence was by traveling over 7 km of low grade gravel road that was also in the emergency response zone. When the public lives in the emergency response zone of a Level 3 sour gas well and AER will not allow a public hearing, it’s hard to believe we have a world class environmental and regulatory system… I have many other examples as well.

Another point I want to make is this notion that some pro-pipeline advocates, yourself included, have that somehow it’s the industries God-given right to build pipelines regardless of other thoughtful citizens’ concerns. While that arrogance has worked very well for the oil and gas industry for the last 70 years, unfortunately Demian, to misquote Bob Dylan, “… the times they are a changing…”. And in my view it can’t happen quickly enough.

And don’t get me started on global warming… that an entire conversation on its own… Do you really think that the momentum around reducing global carbon emissions can be stopped or reversed? Sure you can fight a rear-guard action, like the lead, asbestos, and Tobacco industries did, but like them, the oil and gas industry will ultimately lose. Tell you what… let’s make a wager around the issue… lets touch base in 12 years and see who was right. You in?

You indicated in your open letter that you “…I desperately want to have a conversation with…” people who oppose pipelines. Well here is your chance.

I would like to invite you to meet with me to have an open, frank and respectful discussion about the nature of the problems facing us all with a view to finding common ground so that we can identify and work towards a solution that will serve all Canadian’s interest.  That will certainly be an entertaining and sometime difficult discussion, but I will make myself available to meet with you at your convenience to start towards finding a solution. Your call…

Best regards,

Mike Sawyer

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Todayville published the following story on January 5th, 2019, with permission from Demian Newman, President of Newman Sales an Marketing in Calgary.

January 5, 2019

Dear fellow Canadians,

I’m writing this as an open letter to every Canadian who has protested the Canadian oil and gas industry. I’m writing this to ask – what if you win? What if you succeed and completely shut down Canada’s oil and gas industry? What happens next?

Obviously, if you’ve ever marched, protested or argued against Canadian pipelines or Oilsands, you must believe that you are financially insulated from the hundreds of billions this industry puts into the Canadian economy. Or you are OK with the crushing blow to the Canadian economy, because your heartfelt belief is that the Canadian oil and gas industry is so environmentally bad for the planet.

These are the people I desperately want to have a conversation with.

I write this letter, not as a Calgarian, Albertan, or even as a Canadian. But I write this as a human being. A human being with two young children, and one who doesn’t go a day without being concerned about how we’re leaving this planet.

So, let’s say that all the anti-Canadian pipeline and oilsands campaigns finally crippled this industry, to a point it can’t rebound. Which feels like a real possibility these days. But what is not just a possibility, but a reality, is that Canadians without their own oil and gas industry would still consume the same amount of energy.

And as Canadians continue to consume 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, the amount we need to import from foreign countries would rise from the current 56%, to 100%. And as completely confused as I already am that we currently import 850,000+ barrels of oil per day, while having the 4th largest reserves in the world. I have absolutely no idea how anyone can think importing an additional 650,000 barrels a day is better for Canada or the environment?

Let’s start with where it’s coming from, with Canada importing 61% from the US, 12% from Saudi Arabia, 6% from Azerbaijan, 5% from Norway, and 4% from Nigeria. I’m going to skip past each of these countries environmental, safety, employee and human rights track records, as there’s no point defacing them when Canada’s oil and gas industry is the world leader in all of these. And I’ll expand on this later, but I thought for arguments sake, we can pretend all these countries have the same standards as Canada.

How could it possibly be more environmentally positive to drill oil in the Middle East, pipeline it to their ports, tanker it 10,000+kms across the ocean, and then deliver it to Canada? Remembering that we have it right here.

So, you’ve won, and there’s no more of what you believe is “dirty oil”. And now we’re importing an additional 650,000 barrels a day into Canada. Let’s not forget, that the 5% of the world’s oil production which Canada currently produces daily, would need to be replaced, or prices would inflate and everyone across the globe would have to pay more at the pumps. And more for the 1,000’s of items manufactured from oil.

But don’t worry about the extra cost, as no other country has an anti oil industry campaign against them, that has stopped or slowed them down like Canada has. And with technology getting better every day, Canada’s 5% worldwide production amounts will be easily replaced.

And let’s go full circle to the Canadian’s protesting new Canadian pipeline projects. If we eliminate our own industry, and we’re importing 650,000 extra barrels of oil daily, we’ll have no other choice but to build new pipelines and facilities to bring this additional oil from the US pipelines and foreign tankers.

So, wouldn’t that be an ironic punch in the face. Where Canadians protesting Canadian owned and operated pipelines, end up shutting down all the investment it takes to move Canadian resources through Canadian pipelines. Just so we are forced to build pipelines and facilities to move more foreign oil into Canada.

And I mentioned that we’d pretend all countries have the same environmental requirements and standards when exploring and developing their natural resources. But it isn’t even close.

You can Google articles with examples of Canada’s environmental standards in this industry, versus any other country. But instead, do yourself a favour and ask someone who’s worked in Canada’s oilpatch, and around the world. Every one of them has countless stories of horrendous environmental issues abroad, which haven’t been allowed in Canada in 30+years (or ever).

So, let’s look at what Canada’s environmental standards are for this industry. And by that, I mean you should go look it up. Don’t take my word for it, but find some reputable publications and factual documents, and not someone’s rambling blog.

Look it up, and please let me know if I’m wrong. Because as much as I needed to write this letter, to get a few things off my chest. I also wrote it, as I believe everyone needs to do better at having a conversation about climate change, the environment, and our responsibility to all do better.

So, I welcome the opposing opinion, as I don’t know why this topic has become a name calling divisive shouting match, where no one will listen to the other side.

But while I have you here, I did want to throw out a couple specific projects, and how protesting them doesn’t make any environmental sense to me. One is Energy East, and the other is BC LNG. The first one is dead, but my fingers are crossed that it can be revived. The second is still approved, for now.

If you look at a map of Canadian pipelines, there is no major pipeline going from Alberta to the east coast of Canada. This means that almost every drop of gas in every vehicle east of Winnipeg is from refined foreign oil. The amount of oil that would’ve travelled on the Energy East pipeline is almost the same amount of oil that we import from Saudi Arabia every day (roughly 100,000 barrels a day).

But what if we didn’t protest Energy East, and instead told the Premier of Quebec that he cannot block a national pipeline. Eastern Canadians would’ve paid (at a minimum) $10-$15 less per barrel than they are currently paying for Canadian oil versus foreign oil. But there was also the billions (not millions, but billions) in revenue that each province would receive from this pipeline running oil through their province.

And I know we’re focusing on the environment, and not the financial benefits of Canada’s oil and gas industry. But, the trick with clean energy and technology, is that it takes money to develop and get to market. So I could be wrong, but I’m almost certain that not one oil company would’ve been upset if Quebec hadn’t killed this pipeline, but instead, took their multi billions a year in revenue from it, and invested all of it into new clean energy technology.

Another thing I encourage you to Google, is the amount of new clean energy technology that has been developed by, and for, Canada’s oil and gas industry.

So, Energy East would’ve taken the amount of Canadian oil, which they are already buying from foreign countries, while generating a ton of money for Canada/Canadians. And then that money could’ve been invested into renewable green energy development. But, Climate Change is a world wide problem, not just a Canadian one. So, as crazy as this might sound, I do believe that BC building facilities to ship Canadian liquid natural gas (LNG) to the world, could have an incredibly positive carbon emissions net benefit.

Currently, China alone has over 700 super coal plants. Just one of them emitting almost as much CO2 as the entire Canadian Oilsands (this is easy to look up). So, what if we could help China get their energy from Natural Gas instead of Coal, as it’s WAY better for the environment. (Side note – also look up Natural Gas and its carbon footprint, as I find very few people realize that it has been unfairly lumped in as a dirty fossil fuel).

And very quickly, I would like to address how we got here in the first place. Why is the perception of Canada’s oil and gas industry so bad across the rest of Canada?

The industry really must start by looking inward, as it has done a very poor job of promoting itself and the strides it’s made over the years. And it can still improve. As can all of us individually.

Because who outside of the industry knows that the Oilsands greenhouse gas emissions have dropped 29% since 2000. Or that a barrel of oil sent from the Oilsands to a refinery on the US Golf Coast has a smaller carbon foot print than a barrel of oil traveling from an oil well in California (it’s small difference, but it’s still better).

And to understand why it’s tough for this industry to promote itself – it is Canadian after all, which explains a lot about its uncomfortable feelings towards self-promotion. And I’ve met a ton of extremely intelligent and thoughtful engineers, geologists, accountants, and tradespeople in this industry, but I’ve never met a Public Relations person – and if there is one, they are very underfunded.

Who is not underfunded, are the groups who make an extraordinary amount of money from Canada not being able to get its natural resources to other customers (the US is our biggest customer at 99%, which is a percentage no business can survive with). And you can’t blame these people for making money off Canada’s inability to build pipelines. But, how they’ve done it, by spending hundreds of millions on PR campaigns to smear Canada’s industry, and pitting us against each other, is beyond is infuriating.

If you only look up one item, please do some research on how openly organizations have been about making donations in the name of the environment, which only target one country’s oil industry. This has made a lot of headlines lately, but I’ve read national Canadian media articles investigating this as far back as 2010.

In conclusion, I would like to point out that I tried my best to use as few statistics as possible, as I’ve seen arguments get derailed with debates on stats. As if the $80 million that Canada losses every day due to no pipeline capacity, is any different if its $40 million or $100 million. It’s a lot of millions, that have turned into billions. And it’s costing hundreds of thousands of good hardworking Canadians financial hardship.

And if it saves the environment, and the planet, then there certainly is an argument for it. But if it’s not helping at all, and potentially harming the planet. Then everyone needs to get educated on all the facts and start to talk to each other about a real solution. And get our industries, politicians, and every Canadian on board with a solution that works.

And please, please, please, don’t take your information from this subject off some rogue website, that’s for or against my stance. Take the time to get your facts from vetted and fact checked publications.

No one should get their facts from a nameless person shouting on the internet. So, my name is Demian Newman, and the two kids I’m leaving this planet to are Olivia and Liam. And both of them need to grow up in a country which is thriving as a world leader, both economically and environmentally – as anything less would be un-Canadian.

Sincerely,

Demian Newman

p.s. If you don’t have time to look up information on everything I’ve mentioned above. Here are a few links:

This first one is on personal energy use and personal accountability. Fun fact: If each of us does a better job to minimize our individual carbon footprint, the industries selling it won’t need to produce as much. Scary fact: literally every economist has said we will use more energy each and every year. This article does a good job expanding on that.

https://www.c2cjournal.ca/2018/12/03/we-have-met-the-carbon-enemy-and-he-is-us/

https://energyminute.ca/

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/oil-sands/18091

http://www.ethicaloil.org/news/myth-busting-are-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-the-oilsands-ruining-the-atmosphere/

https://www.aboutpipelines.com/en/blog/what-you-know-about-pipelines-and-the-environment-might-be-wrong/?utm_campaign=CEPA_Social&utm_content=1542042327&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook,linkedin

https://ipolitics.ca/2014/07/18/how-clean-is-our-dirty-oil-youd-be-surprised/

http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2018/04/02/following-big-us-money-behind-canadian-pipeline-protests

Newman Sales and Marketing Inc is a full service sales and marketing firm representing independently owned and operated oilfield service companies. 

If you enjoyed this story, you might also like this story from Sheldon Gron.  Click the image below:

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Alberta

Alberta to protect three pro-family laws by invoking notwithstanding clause

Published on

From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

Premier Danielle Smith said her government will use a constitutional tool to defend a ban on transgender surgery for minors and stopping men from competing in women’s sports.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said her government will use a rare constitutional tool, the notwithstanding clause, to ensure three bills passed this year — a ban on transgender surgery for minors, stopping men from competing in women’s sports, and protecting kids from extreme aspects of the LGBT agenda — stand and remain law after legal attacks from extremist activists. 

Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) government stated that it will utilize a new law, Bill 9, to ensure that laws passed last year remain in effect.

“Children deserve the opportunity to grow into adulthood before making life-altering decisions about their gender and fertility,” Smith said in a press release sent to LifeSiteNews and other media outlets yesterday. 

“By invoking the notwithstanding clause, we’re ensuring that laws safeguarding children’s health, education and safety cannot be undone – and that parents are fully involved in the major decisions affecting their children’s lives. That is what Albertans expect, and that is what this government will unapologetically defend.”

Alberta Justice Minister and Attorney General Mickey Amery said that the laws passed last year are what Albertans voted for in the last election. 

“These laws reflect an overwhelming majority of Albertans, and it is our responsibility to ensure that they will not be overturned or further delayed by activists in the courts,” he noted. 

“The notwithstanding clause reinforces democratic accountability by keeping decisions in the hands of those elected by Albertans. By invoking it, we are providing certainty that these protections will remain in place and that families can move forward with clarity and confidence.”

The Smith government said the notwithstanding clause will apply to the following pieces of legislation:

  • Bill 26, the Health Statutes Amendment Act, 2024, prohibits both gender reassignment surgery for children under 18 and the provision of puberty blockers and hormone treatments for the purpose of gender reassignment to children under 16.

  • Bill 27, the Education Amendment Act, 2024, requires schools to obtain parental consent when a student under 16 years of age wishes to change his or her name or pronouns for reasons related to the student’s gender identity, and requires parental opt-in consent to teaching on gender identity, sexual orientation or human sexuality.

  • Bill 29, the Fairness and Safety in Sport Act, requires the governing bodies of amateur competitive sports in Alberta to implement policies that limit participation in women’s and girls’ sports to those who were born female.”

Bill 26 was passed in December of 2024, and it amends the Health Act to “prohibit regulated health professionals from performing sex reassignment surgeries on minors.”

Last year, Smith’s government also passed Bill 27, a law banning schools from hiding a child’s pronoun changes at school that will help protect kids from the extreme aspects of the LGBT agenda.

Bill 27 will also empower the education minister to, in effect, stop the spread of extreme forms of pro-LGBT ideology or anything else to be allowed to be taught in schools via third parties.

Bill 29, which became law last December, bans gender-confused men from competing in women’s sports, the first legislation of its kind in Canada.  The law applies to all school boards, universities, and provincial sports organizations. 

Alberta’s notwithstanding clause is like all other provinces’ clauses and was a condition Alberta agreed to before it signed onto the nation’s 1982 constitution.

It is meant as a check to balance power between the court system and the government elected by the people. Once it is used, as passed in the legislature, a court cannot rule that the “legislation which the notwithstanding clause applies to be struck down based on the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Alberta Bill of Rights, or the Alberta Human Rights Act,” the Alberta government noted.

While Smith has done well on some points, she has still been relatively soft on social issues of importance to conservatives , such as abortion, and has publicly expressed pro-LGBT views, telling Jordan Peterson earlier this year that conservatives must embrace homosexual “couples” as “nuclear families.” 

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Alberta

National Crisis Approaching Due To The Carney Government’s Centrally Planned Green Economy

Published on

From Energy Now

By Ron Wallace

Welcome to the Age of Ottawa’s centrally planned green economy.


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On November 13, 2025, the Carney government announced yet another round of projects to be referred to the newly created Major Projects Office (MPO) established under the authority of the Building Canada Act (2025). That Office, designed to coordinate and streamline federal approvals for infrastructure projects deemed by Cabinet to be in the “national interest”. The announcement made scant reference to the fact that most of the referred projects had already received the regulatory permits required for construction or are, in several cases, already well under way.

Meanwhile, the aspirations of Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith were not realized with a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MoU) signed with the Carney government before the 112th Grey Cup in Winnipeg.  It remains to be seen if Canada and Alberta can in fact “create the circumstances whereby the oil and gas emissions cap would no longer be required” and if these negotiations will result in a “grand bargain” with the federal government.  For its part, Alberta has signaled a willingness to change its industrial carbon tax program to encourage corporations to invest in emissions reduction projects  while Alberta’s major energy producers have signalled that they are willing to consider carbon capture and methane reduction within an agreed industrial carbon pricing scheme.  Notwithstanding concerns about its financial and technical viability, the Pathways Alliance Project appears to have become a cornerstone of Alberta’s negotiations with the federal government.

In early 2025 Premier Smith issued a list of nine demands accompanied by a six month ultimatum demanding the federal government roll back key elements of its climate policy.  Designed to re-assert Alberta’s autonomy over natural resources, Smith’s core issues centered on the repeal of Bill C-69 (the “no new pipelines act) and Bill C-48 (the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act) scrapping the proposed Clean Electricity Regulations and abandonment of the net-zero automobile mandate.  In face of a possible refusal by Ottawa to deal with these outstanding issues, Premier Smith launched a “Next Steps” panel as a province-wide consultation to “strengthen provincial sovereignty within Canada” – a process that could possibly lead to a referendum on Alberta’s future within Confederation.

Subsequently, in early October, Premier Smith also announced that her government, in collaboration with three pipeline industry partners, would advance an application to the Major Projects Office for a new oil pipeline from Alberta to a marine terminal on the northwest coast of British Columbia.  The intent of the application is to have this new pipeline designated as a ‘project in the national interest’ to receive an accelerated review and approval timeline. Alberta is planning to submit that application in May 2026 to address the five criteria set by Ottawa for national interest determinations. Notably, the removal of what Premier Smith has termed ‘bad laws’ would be a prerequisite to construction of this proposed project.

As the Carney government continues its complex dance around these issues it remains to be seen how, or if, Smith’s demands for Canada to roll back federal legislation will be met. While Premier Smith staunchly advocated for the removal of what she termed to be the ‘bad laws’ standing in the way of the “ultimate approval” of a pipeline to the B.C. coast it remains to be seen if the Carney government will to accede to most, or even any, of these demands in ways that could clear the way for a new oil export pipeline from Alberta. At a time when the Carney government appears to be doubling down on its priority to reduce Canadian emissions it remains to be seen if Alberta can in fact increase oil production without increasing emissions.

Liberal MP Corey Hogan, who serves as parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources the Honourable Tim Hodgson, noted that: “So as long as we can get to common understandings of what all of those mean, there’s not really a need for an emissions cap.”  This ‘common understanding’ may signal a willingness by Ottawa to set aside the Trudeau government’s signature proposed oil and gas emissions cap in exchange for major carbon capture and storage projects in Alberta that would be combined with strong carbon pricing and methane regulations.

While this ‘common understanding’ may yet lead to a ‘grand bargain’ it would nevertheless effectively create two different classes of oil in Canada, each operating under different sets of regulations and different cost structures.  Western Canada’s crude oil producers would be forced to shoulder costly and technically challenging decarbonization requirements in face of a federal veto over any new oil projects that weren’t ‘decarbonized.’  Canadian-produced oil would be faced with entering international export markets at a significant, if not ruinous, competitive disadvantage risking not only profitability but market share.  Meanwhile, this hypocritical policy would allow eastern Canadian oil refiners to import ‘carbonized’ oil from countries with significantly looser environmental standards.

Carney’s November 2025 “Canada Strong” federal budget sets out $141.4 billion in new spending over five years with a projected $78.3 billion deficit for 2025–26. As Jack Mintz points out, while that budget claims to be “spending less to invest more”, annual capital spending will double from $30 billion a year to $60 billion a year over five years:

“… as federal program spending, which excludes interest on debt, is forecast to rise by 16 per cent from $490 billion this fiscal year to $568 billion in 2029-30. During the current year alone, the spending increase is a remarkable seven per cent. Public debt charges will soar by 43 per cent from $53 billion to $76 billion due to growing indebtedness and higher interest rates. No surprise there. Deficits — $78 billion this year alone — accumulate by a whopping $320 billion over five years.”

Since 2015 Canada has experienced a flight of investment capital approaching CAD$650 billion due to lost, or deferred, resource projects – particularly in the energy sector.  While many economists recognize that Canada’s fiscal status may be worse than it appears, the Carney government is asking Canadians to ignore these figures while they implement industrial policies that, for all intents and purposes, represent a significant regression into central planning. The ‘modernization’ of the National Energy Board that began early in the Trudeau government’s mandate appears now to have been but a first step in the progressive centralization of control by the federal government. Gone are the days when an independent expert energy regulator made national interest determinations based upon cross-examined evidence presented in a public forum.  Instead, a cabinet cloaked in confidentiality that is  clearly inclined toward emissions reduction as its paramount consideration, will now determine and select projects.

This process of centralized decision-making represents a dilemma that confronts not just Premier Smith but the entire Canadian energy sector. The emerging financial debacle in the Canadian EV battery and vehicular manufacturing market is but one example of how centrally planned criteria designed to achieve a Net Zero economy will almost invariably lead to unanticipated, if not economically disastrous, results.

In short, the “green economy” is not working. The Fraser Institute noted that while Federal spending on the green economy surged from $600 million in 2014/15 to $23 billion in 2024/25, a nearly 40-fold increase, the green economy’s share of GDP rose only marginally from 3.1% in 2014 to 3.6% in 2023. Moreover, promised “green jobs” have not materialized at scale while traditional energy sectors vital to Alberta’s and the Canadian GDP have been actively constrained.

This economic reality has apparently not yet dawned in Ottawa.  As Gwyn Morgan points out, Prime Minister Carney who, in 2021 with Michael Bloomberg,  launched the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), has not changed his determination to hike Canadian carbon taxes, proposing to increase the industrial levy from $80 to $170/ton by 2030.  GFANZ was created to align global financial institutions with net-zero emissions targets bringing together sector-specific alliances like the Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) and the Net Zero Asset Managers (NZAM).  However, early in 2025 GFANZ faced significant challenges as major U.S. banks exited the NZBA followed by the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA) that disbanded entirely in 2024 after a wave of member withdrawals. GFANZ was forced to undergo a strategic restructuring in January 2025 to shift from a coalition-of-alliances to a more open, standalone platform focused on mobilizing capital for the low-carbon transition through pragmatic climate financing. ‘Pragmatic’ indeed.

While Carney’s GFANZ has effectively imploded, his government ignores developing new realities in climate policy by continuing to implement the Trudeau government’s green agenda with programs like the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. That program contains a plethora of ‘green economy’ measures designed to reduce carbon emissions in parallel with the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that commits Canada to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) to achieve net-zero by 2050.

These policies ignore the recent change of mind by thought-leaders like Bill Gates who acknowledges that “climate change, disease, and poverty are all major problems we should deal with them in proportion to the suffering they cause.”  This aligns his thinking with that of Bjorn Lomborg who states:

“Climate change demands action, but not at the expense of poverty reduction. Rich governments should invest in long-overdue R&D for breakthrough green technologies — affordable, reliable alternatives that everyone, rich and poor alike, will adopt. That is how we can solve climate without sacrificing the vulnerable. More countries, including Canada, need to get on board with the mission of returning the World Bank to focusing on poverty. Raiding development funds for climate initiatives isn’t just misguided. It’s an affront to human suffering.”

Philip Cross also expressed hope that 2025 may yet represent a “turning point in a return to sanity in public policy:”

“Nowhere is the change more evident than in attitudes to green energy policies, once the rallying cry for left-wing parties in North America. Support has collapsed for three pillars of green energy advocacy: building electric vehicles to eliminate our need for oil pipelines and refineries; using the financial clout of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance to force firms to eliminate carbon emissions; and legally mandating the shift from fossil fuels to green energy.”

Nonetheless, Prime Minister Carney appears resolute in the belief that Canadian policies for Net Zero are not hobbling investment in the energy sector while choosing to ignore alternative regulatory and investment tools that could make a material difference for the economy.  Carney also appears to ignore major Canadian firms like TC Energy that have re-directed investments of $8.5 billion into the U.S. as they cite significant concerns about the Canadian regulatory structure. Similarly, Enbridge has advocated for “significant energy policy changes” in Canada while  focussing attention not on new export pipelines but instead to incrementally upgrade capacity within its existing Mainline system network.

Canada’s destiny as a ‘decarbonized energy superpower’ will be largely determined by the serious economic consequences that will result from a sustained ideological push into ‘clean energy’.  That said, will this be accomplished by a chaotic, ever-more centralized process of decision making, masquerading as a coherent national energy policy?

Conclusion

As Gwyn Morgan has succinctly written, it remains to be seen if the Carney government will be willing to make a “climate climbdown” in face of the reality that net zero goals are being broadly abandoned globally or will they continue to sacrifice the Canadian economy to single-minded, unrealistic or unattainable, goals for emissions reduction?

To date none of the projects referred by the Carney government to the Major Projects Office has been designated as ‘being in the national interest’.  Moreover, the Alberta bitumen pipeline advocated by Premier Smith has not yet appeared on any list. Nonetheless, she apparently remains resolute in maintaining negotiations with Ottawa stating: “Currently, we are working on an agreement with the federal government that includes the removal, carve out or overhaul of several damaging laws chasing away private investment in our energy sector, and an agreement to work towards ultimate approval of a bitumen pipeline to Asian markets.”

As Alberta’s ultimatums and deadlines to Ottawa pass, it would be reasonable to question whether Premier Smith is, in fact, being confronted with the illusory freedom of a Hobson’s choice: Either Alberta must accept, at unprecedented cost, Ottawa’s determination to realize Net Zero or it will get nothing at all. While she may be seeking federal support to enable, or accelerate, construction of new pipelines, all Ottawa may be willing to concede is a promise to do better with an MoU that would ultimately impose massive costs for ‘decarbonization’ on Alberta while eastern Canada imports oil from other, less constrained, jurisdictions. Is this a “Grand Bargain?”

Budget 2025 has introduced a Climate Competitiveness Strategy for nuclear, hydro, wind and grid modernization that projects over CAD$1 trillion in spending over five years. It also reaffirms a commitment to increase carbon taxes by $80-$170/tonne for CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030. Since it appears committed to maintaining, or even expanding, Trudeau-era green legislation, some might question any commitments from the Carney government to enter into an even-handed debate on Canadian energy policies that are so critical to Alberta’s energy sector?  As the Fraser Institute points out:

“The Canadian case shows an even greater mismatch between Ottawa’s COP commitments and its actual results. Despite billions spent by the federal government on the low-carbon economy (electric vehicle subsidies, tax credits to corporations, etc.), fossil fuel consumption increased 23 per cent between 1995 and 2024. Over the same period, the share of fossil fuels in Canada’s total energy consumption rose from 62.0 to 66.3 per cent.”

While the creation of the MPO may give the appearance of accelerating projects deemed to be in the national interest it nonetheless requires a circumvention of an existing legislative base. This approach further enhances a centrally-planned economy and presupposes that more, not less, bureaucracy will somehow make Canada an “energy superpower”.

Canada continues to overlook rising economic challenges while pursuing climate goals with inconsistent policies.   As such, it risks becoming an outlier in energy policy at a time when the world is beginning to recognize the immense costs and implausibility of implementing policies for Net Zero.

Premier Danielle Smith may yet face a pivotal moment in Alberta’s, and possibly Canadian, history.  If Ottawa’s past performance is but a prologue, predictions of a happy outcome may require a significant dose of optimism.


Ron Wallace is a former Member of the National Energy Board.

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