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Alberta

Statement from Premier Danielle Smith regarding Ethics Commissioner’s Report

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From the United Conservative party

Ethics Commissioner Confirms CBC and NDP lies regarding Crown Prosecutor Contact; Premier to seek formal guidelines on future policy discussions with Justice Minister

(May 18, 2023) — Danielle Smith, Leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta, issued the following statement:

“I was gratified to read the Ethics Commissioner’s findings confirming that neither I, nor anyone in my office, tried to or did contact any Crown Prosecutors regarding any COVID-19 prosecutions.

“This confirms that the CBC and NDP have repeatedly lied to Albertans for months with false accusations stating that my office and I had done so. Both the CBC and NDP should apologize and withdraw those false accusations immediately and publicly. They should also apologize to Alberta’s independent Crown Prosecutors and Civil Service for repeatedly questioning their integrity in addressing these matters.

“As to my discussions regarding COVID-related charges and violations with my Minister of Justice, Tyler Shandro: I have always stated I wanted to find a path of amnesty for those charged with non-violent COVID-related offences and violations during the pandemic.

“As I have explained before, I spoke with Minister Shandro, who is an experienced lawyer (I am not) as I was very interested in his advice on what could legally be done about this. He gave me his advice on the matter and, as the Commissioner has also confirmed, I accepted it. It went no further after that.

“In the Commissioner’s opinion, I had a discussion with Minister Shandro that was inappropriate regarding this subject.

“I invited the Commissioner to give me and future premiers the benefit of some guidance on how to advance sensitive policy issues similar to this with the Minister of Justice if she thought there was a more appropriate way.

“Although she has yet to offer a different approach or advice for me to consider in this regard, I will be seeking legal advice on creating specific formal guidelines as to when and how a Premier may speak with a Minister of Justice in the future about policy issues and other sensitive matters in order to respect all applicable rules and conventions. I will be asking the Ethics Commissioner to review those guidelines, once drafted, in order that her advice and input are incorporated.

“As to Mr. Pawlowski, a verdict in his case has been rendered by the Court and the matter is now closed.

“Given that various false and defamatory statements are now confirmed to have been made by the CBC and NDP in this matter against me and several individuals in my office, this matter remains the subject of potential civil litigation. I will confer with my counsel on what next steps are to be taken after the election.

“I look forward to spending the remainder of the campaign talking about issues that Albertans are focused on – namely the economy, jobs, affordability, public safety and healthcare.”

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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped belowĀ US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimatedĀ $750 millionĀ hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects aĀ $5.2 billionĀ budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion ā€œcontingencyā€ for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenueĀ rollercoasterĀ that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high asĀ $25.2 billionĀ in 2022/23 and as low asĀ $2.8 billionĀ in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up aĀ sizeableĀ fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create aĀ rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

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From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up.Ā House pricesĀ andĀ rentsĀ in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent MaruĀ poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, butĀ not enoughĀ to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any otherĀ province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’sĀ population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to theĀ city chartersĀ in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms inĀ Calgary,Ā EdmontonĀ andĀ Red DeerĀ have made it easier to build higher-density housing, andĀ LethbridgeĀ andĀ Medicine HatĀ may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of theĀ least restrictiveĀ building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposesĀ feesĀ on developers to fund a wide array ofĀ public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of newĀ firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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