Business
Spending restraint: Roadmap to a balanced budget
From the Fraser Institute
A Case for Spending Restraint: How the Federal Government Can Balance the Budget
By Grady Munro and Jake Fuss
Since 2015, there has been a deterioration in the federal government’s fiscal situation. Annual
nominal program spending has increased an estimated $193.6 billion since 2014/15; adjusted for
inflation and population growth this represents an extra $2,330 per person. Prior to the COVID
pandemic, spending increased faster than population, inflation, and other relevant economic
indicators. These spending increases have resulted in a string of large budgetary deficits that have
contributed to an estimated $941.9 billion increase in gross federal debt from 2014/15 to 2023/24.
This accumulation of debt, along with recent hikes in interest rates, has raised the cost of interest
on the federal debt to one of the largest budget expense items.
Moving forward, the federal government plans to slow nominal spending growth, which will keep inflation-adjusted, per-person spending relatively constant to 2026/27. Despite this, the federal government will continue running budget deficits and accumulating debt. It is also uncertain whether the federal government’s current estimates are truly reliable as the estimates do not incorporate expected spending on pharmacare or the level of defence spending to meet Canada’s NATO commitment. Moreover, the federal government’s track record of exceeding previous spending commitments calls into question the reliability of the current spending targets. Therefore, it is clear the federal government is not implementing the level of spending restraint necessary to reverse course towards a stable fiscal situation.
An approach to federal finances that continues to run budget deficits and accumulate debt is economically harmful to both current and future generations of Canadians. Research shows that significant increases in debt-financed spending harm economic growth by reducing capital accumulation and labour productivity.
Furthermore, accumulating debt today increases the tax burden on future generations of Canadians, as they will be responsible for paying off this debt. Despite these effects, the federal government plans to continue running deficits and accumulating debt for the foreseeable future.
This need not be the case. The federal government can undertake decisive spending reform starting in 2024— similar to the reform by the Chrétien government in the 1990s—that balances the budget within a year or two. The federal government could balance the budget in 2026/27 by limiting annual growth in nominal program spending to 0.3% for two years. This would result in a 5.9% reduction in real per-person spending. Alternatively, the budget could be balanced in 2025/26 if the federal government reduces spending 4.3% for one year; the next year, 2026/27, would see a budgetary surplus. In this scenario, inflation-adjusted per-person spending would decline by 7.5%. Key trade-offs between the two approaches include the extent of the spending reform and the speed of the return to balanced budgets. Balancing the budget in one year, as opposed to two years, would
result in $30.0 billion less debt accumulated by 2026/27.
Though it is beyond the scope of this study to discuss how such spending reforms should be implemented, there are three areas that might be considered for reform. Business subsidies are a significant expense, yet research suggests they have little if any economic benefit, and may actually harm economic growth when governments pick winners and losers in a free market. Reviewing business subsidies might provide opportunities to find savings. Aligning government-sector wages
with those in the private sector would also provide savings, as government workers in Canada currently enjoy an 8.5% wage premium (on average) relative to comparable private-sector workers. Finally, studies show that government fiscal waste can be significant. From 1988 to 2013, more than 600 government failures cost the federal government between $158.3 billion and $197.1 billion. Moreover, more than 25% of all federal COVID spending was wasteful. Addressing inefficiencies within government might also reveal savings.

- Canada has seen a deterioration in the federal government’s fiscal situation since 2015. A distinct lack of spending restraint has resulted in a string of large budget deficits, which have contributed to rising government debt and debt interest costs.
- Despite current fiscal plans promising more of the same, the federal government could implement decisive spending reform starting in 2024/25, similar to reforms implemented in the 1990s, and balance the budget within one or two years.
- To balance the budget by 2026/27, the federal government would need to limit growth in annual nominal program spending to 0.3 percent for two years. This would translate to a 5.9 percent reduction in inflation-adjusted, per-person spending.
- Alternatively, the federal government could balance the budget in one year, by 2025/26, by reducing nominal program spending by 4.3 percent. Adjusted for inflation and population, this would be a 7.5 percent decrease. In 2026/27, the federal government could then record a $8.2 billion surplus even while increasing spending from the previous year.
- While this study does not provide an in-depth analysis of where potential savings should be found, research highlights three potential areas that could be targeted for spending reform: corporate welfare, aligning government-sector wages with those in the private sector, or eliminating government fiscal waste.
A Case for Spending Restraint in Canada: How the Federal Government Can Balance the Budget
Authors:
Business
Canada needs serious tax cuts in 2026
What Prime Minister Mark Carney gives with his left hand, he takes away with his right hand.
Canadians are already overtaxed and need serious tax cuts to make life more affordable and make our economy more competitive. But at best, the New Year will bring a mixed bag for Canadian taxpayers.
The federal government is cutting income taxes, but it’s hiking payroll taxes. The government cancelled the consumer carbon tax, but it’s hammering Canadian businesses with a higher industrial carbon tax.
The federal government cut the lowest income tax bracket from 15 to 14 per cent. That will save the average taxpayer $190 in 2026, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
But the government is taking more money from Canadians’ paycheques with higher payroll taxes.
Workers earning $85,000 or more will pay $5,770 in federal payroll taxes in 2026. That’s a $262 payroll tax hike. Their employers will also be forced to pay $6,219.
So Canadians will save a couple hundred bucks from the income tax cut in the new year, but many Canadians will pay a couple hundred bucks more in payroll taxes.
It’s the same story with carbon taxes.
After massive backlash from ordinary Canadians, the federal government dropped its consumer carbon tax that cost average families hundreds of dollars every year and increased the price of gas by about 18 cents per litre.
But Carney’s first budget shows he wants higher carbon taxes on Canadian businesses. Carney still hasn’t provided Canadians a clear answer on how much his business carbon tax will cost. He did, however, provide a hint during a press conference he held after signing a memorandum of understanding with the Alberta government.
“It means more than a six times increase in the industrial price on carbon,” Carney said.
Carney previously said that by “changing the carbon tax … We are making the large companies pay for everybody.”
Carney’s problem is that Canadians aren’t buying what he’s selling on carbon taxes.
Just 12 per cent of Canadians believe Carney that businesses will pay most of the cost of his carbon tax, according to a Leger poll. Nearly 70 per cent of Canadians say businesses will pass most or some of the cost to consumers.
Canadians understand that it doesn’t matter what type of lipstick politicians put on their carbon tax pig, all carbon taxes make life more expensive.
Carney is also continuing his predecessor’s tradition of automatically increasing booze taxes.
Ottawa will once again hike taxes on beer, wine and spirits in 2026 through its undemocratic alcohol tax escalator.
First passed in the 2017 federal budget, the alcohol escalator tax automatically increases federal taxes on beer, wine and spirits every year without a vote in Parliament.
Federal alcohol taxes are expected to increase by two per cent on April 1, and cost taxpayers $41 million in 2026. Since being imposed, the alcohol escalator tax has cost taxpayers about $1.6 billion, according to industry estimates.
Canadians are overtaxed and need the federal government to seriously lighten the load.
The biggest expense for the average Canadian family isn’t the home they live in, the food they eat or the clothes they buy. It’s the taxes they pay to all levels of government. More than 40 per cent of the average family’s budget goes to paying taxes, according to the Fraser Institute.
Politicians are taking too much money from Canadians. And their high taxes are driving away investment and jobs.
Canada ranks a dismal 27th out of 38 industrialized countries on individual tax competitiveness, according to the Tax Foundation. Canada ranks 22nd on business tax competitiveness. Canada is behind the United States on both measures.
A little bit of tax relief here and there isn’t going to cut it. Carney’s New Year’s resolution needs to be to embark on a massive tax cutting campaign.
Business
DOOR TO DOOR: Feds descend on Minneapolis day cares tied to massive fraud
Federal agents are now going “DOOR TO DOOR” in Minneapolis, launching what the Department of Homeland Security itself describes as an on-the-ground sweep of businesses and day-care centers tied to Minnesota’s exploding fraud scandal — a case that has already burned through at least $1 billion in taxpayer money and is rapidly closing in on Democrat Gov. Tim Walz and his administration.
ICE agents, working under the umbrella of the Department of Homeland Security, fanned out across the city this week, showing up unannounced at locations suspected of billing state and federal programs for services that never existed. One day-care worker told reporters Monday that masked agents arrived at her facility, demanded paperwork, and questioned staff about operations and enrollment.
“DHS is on the ground in Minneapolis, going DOOR TO DOOR at suspected fraud sites,” the agency posted on X. “The American people deserve answers on how their taxpayer money is being used and ARRESTS when abuse is found.”
DHS is on the ground in Minneapolis, going DOOR TO DOOR at suspected fraud sites.
The American people deserve answers on how their taxpayer money is being used and ARRESTS when abuse is found. Under the leadership of @Sec_Noem, DHS is working to deliver results. pic.twitter.com/7XtRflv36b
— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) December 29, 2025
Authorities say the confirmed fraud already totals roughly $300 million tied to fake food programs, $220 million linked to bogus autism services, and more than $300 million charged for housing assistance that never reached the people it was meant to help. Investigators from the FBI, Justice Department, and Department of Labor have now expanded their probes after a viral investigation exposed taxpayer-funded day cares that received more than $1 million each while allegedly serving few — or zero — children.
One of the most glaring examples, the Minneapolis-based Quality “Learing” Center — infamous for its misspelled sign — suddenly appeared busy Monday as national media arrived. Locals told reporters the center is typically empty and often looks permanently closed, despite receiving about $1.9 million in public funds. State inspection records show the facility has racked up 95 violations since 2019. Employees allegedly cursed at reporters while children were bused in during posted afternoon hours.
DHS officials say the “DOOR TO DOOR” operation is deliberate. In videos released online, agents are seen questioning nearby business owners about whether adjacent buildings ever had foot traffic, whether they appeared open, and whether operators used subcontractors or outside partners to pad billing. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem posted footage of agents pressing workers about business relationships and transportation services used by suspected fraud sites.
“This is a large-scale investigation,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin told the New York Post, confirming that Homeland Security Investigations and ICE are targeting fraudulent day-care and health-care centers as well as related financial schemes.
FBI Director Kash Patel warned that what investigators have uncovered so far is “just the tip of a very large iceberg.” He pointed to the bureau’s dismantling of a $250 million COVID-era food-aid scam tied to the Feeding Our Future network, a case that resulted in 78 indictments and 57 convictions. Patel has also made clear that denaturalization and deportation remain on the table for convicted fraudsters where the law allows.
Dozens of arrests have already been made across the broader scheme, many involving Somali immigrants, though federal officials stress the investigation targets criminal behavior — not communities. Some local residents say the scandal is hurting law-abiding families. One Somali Uber driver told reporters he works 16-hour days and is furious that “some people are taking advantage of the system,” making the entire community look bad.
Now, with federal agents going “DOOR TO DOOR” across Minneapolis, the era of polite indifference appears to be over. The message from Washington is blunt: the money trail is being followed, the paperwork is being checked, and the days of treating taxpayer-funded programs like an open vault are coming to an end.
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