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Scott Moe tells Trudeau he will stop collecting carbon tax unless Saskatchewan gets tax break

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From LifeSiteNews

By Anthony Murdoch

‘I cannot accept the Federal Government giving an affordability break to people in one part of Canada, but not here,’ the Saskatchewan premier said in an announcement on Monday.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on notice today by saying his province will stop collecting a federal carbon tax on natural gas used to heat homes come January 1, 2024, unless it gets a similar tax break that Atlantic Canadian provinces just got from the federal government for heating their homes.  

“So, the Prime Minister chose to make life more affordable for families in one part of the country while leaving Saskatchewan families out in the cold. How is that fair to families here in our province, where affordability is also an issue, where winters are cold, and where most of us use natural gas to stay warm?” said Moe in a video posted today to X (formerly Twitter).  

“I cannot accept the Federal Government giving an affordability break to people in one part of Canada, but not here. So today I am calling on the Federal Government to offer the same carbon tax exemption to Saskatchewan families by extending it to all forms of home heating, not just heating oil.” 

Moe said that Trudeau should give Saskatchewan a tax break, as this is only “fair” for “Saskatchewan and Canadian families.” 

“Hopefully that exemption will be provided soon,” he said.  

Moe then turned up the heat on Trudeau. He said that if Trudeau does not give his province the same break as Atlantic provinces, “effective January 1st, Sask Energy will stop collecting and submitting the carbon tax on natural gas, effectively providing Saskatchewan residents with the very same exemption that the federal government is giving heating oil in Atlantic Canada.” 

Moe said that while the federal government may say what he is contemplating doing is “illegal and that you simply cannot choose to collect and pay your taxes,” which he added in “most” cases he would “agree with,” it’s the “federal government that has created two classes of taxpayer, by providing an exemption for heating with an exemption that really only applies in one part of the country and effectively excludes Saskatchewan.”

Moe said that his job as premier is to make sure “Saskatchewan residents are treated fairly and equally with our fellow Canadians in other parts of the country.” 

“And that’s what I am doing today,” he added.  

As it currently stands, provinces collect the carbon tax on behalf of the federal government. 

Late last week, amid dismal polling numbers that show his government will be defeated in a landslide by the Conservative Party come the next election, Trudeau announced he was pausing the collection of the carbon tax on home heating oil in Atlantic Canadian provinces for three years.

However, while making the announcement, Trudeau said the goal of the pause was to encourage locals to ditch their home heating oil units for electric heat pumps and said his government would be giving out free pumps to many homeowners.  

LifeSiteNews reported earlier this month how Trudeau’s carbon tax is costing Canadians hundreds of dollars annually, as government rebates it gives out are not enough to compensate for high fuel costs.  

As it stands now, Canadians who live in a province that does not have their own carbon tax scheme fall under the federal carbon pricing scheme and pay $65 per tonne. The Trudeau government has a goal of $170 per tonne by 2030, however.  

This will increase the costs of everything. A recent report revealed that a carbon tax of more than $350 per tonne is needed to reach Trudeau’s net zero goals by 2050.  

Moe and Alberta Premier Smith blast Trudeau as ‘danger’ to confederation  

Over the weekend, both Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who also opposes the carbon tax, blasted Trudeau as being a danger to the confederation, after his Rural Economic Development Minister Gudie Hutchings said those provinces “need to elect more Liberals in the Prairies so that we can have that conversation as well.” 

Smith and Moe said that Hutchings’ comments show the carbon tax has nothing to do with the environment but is all about “politics.”  

Saskatchewan is not alone in opposing Trudeau’s carbon tax and “net zero” environmental goals.  

Both it and Alberta have repeatedly promised to place the interests of their people above the Trudeau government’s “unconstitutional” demands while consistently reminding the federal government that their infrastructures and economies depend upon oil, gas, and coal.  

The Trudeau government’s current environmental goals – in lockstep with the United Nations’ “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” – include phasing out coal-fired power plants, reducing fertilizer usage, and curbing natural gas use over the coming decades.  

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Canada Caves: Carney ditches digital services tax after criticism from Trump

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From The Center Square

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Canada caved to President Donald Trump demands by pulling its digital services tax hours before it was to go into effect on Monday.

Trump said Friday that he was ending all trade talks with Canada over the digital services tax, which he called a direct attack on the U.S. and American tech firms. The DST required foreign and domestic businesses to pay taxes on some revenue earned from engaging with online users in Canada.

“Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately,” the president said. “We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period.”

By Sunday, Canada relented in an effort to resume trade talks with the U.S., it’s largest trading partner.

“To support those negotiations, the Minister of Finance and National Revenue, the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, announced today that Canada would rescind the Digital Services Tax (DST) in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the United States,” according to a statement from Canada’s Department of Finance.

Canada’s Department of Finance said that Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump agreed to resume negotiations, aiming to reach a deal by July 21.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday that the digital services tax would hurt the U.S.

“Thank you Canada for removing your Digital Services Tax which was intended to stifle American innovation and would have been a deal breaker for any trade deal with America,” he wrote on X.

Earlier this month, the two nations seemed close to striking a deal.

Trump said he and Carney had different concepts for trade between the two neighboring countries during a meeting at the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, in the Canadian Rockies.

Asked what was holding up a trade deal between the two nations at that time, Trump said they had different concepts for what that would look like.

“It’s not so much holding up, I think we have different concepts, I have a tariff concept, Mark has a different concept, which is something that some people like, but we’re going to see if we can get to the bottom of it today.”

Shortly after taking office in January, Trump hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs for allowing fentanyl and migrants to cross their borders into the U.S. Trump later applied those 25% tariffs only to goods that fall outside the free-trade agreement between the three nations, called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Trump put a 10% tariff on non-USMCA compliant potash and energy products. A 50% tariff on aluminum and steel imports from all countries into the U.S. has been in effect since June 4. Trump also put a 25% tariff on all cars and trucks not built in the U.S.

Economists, businesses and some publicly traded companies have warned that tariffs could raise prices on a wide range of consumer products.

Trump has said he wants to use tariffs to restore manufacturing jobs lost to lower-wage countries in decades past, shift the tax burden away from U.S. families, and pay down the national debt.

A tariff is a tax on imported goods paid by the person or company that imports them. The importer can absorb the cost of the tariffs or try to pass the cost on to consumers through higher prices.

Trump’s tariffs give U.S.-produced goods a price advantage over imported goods, generating revenue for the federal government.

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Alberta

Canadian Oil Sands Production Expected to Reach All-time Highs this Year Despite Lower Oil Prices

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From Energy Now

S&P Global Commodity Insights has raised its 10-year production outlook for the Canadian oil sands. The latest forecast expects oil sands production to reach a record annual average production of 3.5 million b/d in 2025 (5% higher than 2024) and exceed 3.9 million b/d by 2030—half a million barrels per day higher than 2024. The 2030 projection is 100,000 barrels per day (or nearly 3%) higher than the previous outlook.

The new forecast, produced by the S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue, is the fourth consecutive upward revision to the annual outlook. Despite a lower oil price environment, the analysis attributes the increased projection to favorable economics, as producers continue to focus on maximizing existing assets through investments in optimization and efficiency.


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While large up-front, out-of-pocket expenditures over multiple years are required to bring online new oil sands projects, once completed, projects enjoy relatively low breakeven prices.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that the 2025 half-cycle break-even for oil sands production ranged from US$18/b to US$45/b, on a WTI basis, with the overall average break-even being approximately US$27/b.*

“The increased trajectory for Canadian oil sands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers’ continued emphasis on optimization—and the favorable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, Chief Canadian Oil Analyst, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “More than 3.8 million barrels per day of existing installed capacity was brought online from 2001 and 2017. This large resource base provides ample room for producers to find debottlenecking opportunities, decrease downtime and increase throughput.”

The potential for additional upside exists given the nature of optimization projects, which often result from learning by doing or emerge organically, the analysis says.

“Many companies are likely to proceed with optimizations even in more challenging price environments because they often contribute to efficiency gains,” said Celina Hwang, Director, Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This dynamic adds to the resiliency of oil sands production and its ability to grow through periods of price volatility.”

The outlook continues to expect oil sands production to enter a plateau later this decade. However, this is also expected to occur at a higher level of production than previously estimated. The new forecast expects oil sands production to be 3.7 million b/d in 2035—100,000 b/d higher than the previous outlook.

Export capacity—already a concern in recent years—is a source of downside risk now that even more production growth is expected. Without further incremental pipeline capacity, export constraints have the potential to re-emerge as early as next year, the analysis says.

“While a lower price path in 2025 and the potential for pipeline export constraints are downside risks to this outlook, the oil sands have proven able to withstand extreme price volatility in the past,” said Hwang. “The low break-even costs for existing projects and producers’ ability to manage challenging situations in the past support the resilience of this outlook.”

* Half-cycle breakeven cost includes operating cost, the cost to purchase diluent (if needed), as well as an adjustment to enable a comparison to WTI—specifically, the cost of transport to Cushing, OK and quality differential between heavy and light oil.

About S&P Global Commodity Insights

At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.

We’re a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en.

SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights

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