Alberta
Provincial Government aggressively pursuing an upgrader for Alberta
From the Province of Alberta
Oil upgrading proposals worth billions
Premier Rachel Notley’s made-in-Alberta energy upgrading strategy is a step closer to creating thousands of jobs and attracting billions of dollars in private sector investment while keeping more value in the province.
Six project proposals are being considered for investment in partial upgrading of oil sands bitumen. These proposals are collectively worth nearly $5 billion of new private sector investment and could create almost 10,000 construction jobs with 500 more jobs during operations.
“For decades, Albertans have been talking about getting more for our oil by upgrading more here at home. We’re taking action to make that a reality. By supercharging energy upgrading in Alberta, we can create more jobs and open more markets to finally get top dollar for our resources.”
Partial upgrading is an emerging technology that reduces the thickness of oil sands bitumen so it can flow through pipelines more easily, without having to be blended with diluent. This provides significant cost savings to industry, increases pipeline capacity by up to 30 per cent, and provides access to more refineries around the world.
“We’re kick-starting a new era of energy diversification in Alberta. These strong proposals show companies want to make big investments and create opportunities in our province. Our made-in-Alberta energy upgrading strategy is a win for energy producers and a win for all Albertans.”
These opportunities were made possible through the Energy Diversification Act, introduced in March 2018. The government committed up to $1 billion in incentives to help leverage billions more in private investment to build partial upgrading facilities.
The government will review the short list of proposed projects for their economic viability and how they demonstrate the best possible value for Albertans while meeting the province’s world-leading plan to do the right thing for the environment. Discussions will begin with the companies in the coming weeks.
Background
Partial upgrading reduces the thickness of oil sands bitumen so it can flow through pipelines more easily, without having to be blended with diluent. This not only reduces significant industry costs for diluent but also increases the volume of bitumen that can be shipped through pipelines by up to 30 per cent, making Alberta’s industry more competitive and enabling more refineries to process Alberta’s bitumen products.
Partial upgrading is one of the initiatives supported through the Energy Diversification Act. The government will commit to $1 billion in incentives for partial upgrading over eight years beginning in 2019-20, which will include a variety of fiscal tools including loan guarantees and grants.
Premier Notley recently doubled support for petrochemical upgrading, which was also made possible under the act. Total investment will now reach $2.1 billion to help create as many as 15,500 jobs during construction of multiple petrochemical facilities across the province. Once operational, another 1,000 jobs could be created with private-sector investment expected to reach $20.6 billion.
The made-in-Alberta energy upgrading strategy builds on the government’s earlier work to create jobs, develop new markets and add more value to Alberta’s resources within the province.
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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