Alberta
Prove to us you’re listening! Alberta’s Finance Minister made these 5 requests to his Federal counterpart
From the Province of Alberta
Discussion with Minister Morneau: Minister Toews
President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Travis Toews issued the following statement on his discussion with federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau:
“Today, I was pleased to speak with federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau. We discussed the frustration Albertans are feeling over federal policies that are failing our province and the urgent need for action to support the Alberta economy.
“In particular, I asked Minister Morneau to:
“Provide Alberta an equalization rebate to address the problem that federal support for a hurting Alberta economy is arbitrarily capped, while transfer payments out of Alberta to other provinces continue without a cap. This can be solved by an immediate retroactive payment of $1.72 billion to cover what we should have received if the Fiscal Stabilization Program (FSP) were not capped for 2015-16 and 2016-17, plus the outstanding $251 million we are owed under the FSP for the year 2016-17.
“Respect provincial jurisdiction by removing natural resources from the calculation of equalization entitlements, and end the automatic escalation of the floor for equalization to ensure Albertans aren’t paying for ever-increasing equalization while struggling through the deepest recession in a generation.
“Address the inequity caused by the fall 2018 decision to favour manufacturing capital cost allowances over the energy industry when the energy industry was in the depths of an economic crisis. This decision irrationally favoured those who build vehicles that consume oil over the welfare of Albertans working in the energy industry. Providing the energy industry with an equal 100 per cent capital cost allowance would put them on even footing with manufacturers and American competitors.
“Follow through on the platform commitment to give ‘energy workers…training, support and new opportunities needed to succeed in the clean economy’ by investing in green jobs for well reclamation in Alberta.
“And finally, I reiterated that Minister Morneau needs to end the mortgage stress tests needlessly imposed on Albertans because of challenges in other parts of the country.
“Immediate action on these items would back up the words we heard from Prime Minister Trudeau on election night, that he has heard our frustration and wants to be there to support us. I look forward to working with Mr. Morneau on these policies, because a strong Alberta is good for Canada, and a strong Alberta economy will support jobs and growth across Canada.”
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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