Alberta
Protecting Alberta’s economic future from Ottawa
Alberta’s government will introduce an Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act motion to fight back against the unconstitutional, job-killing federal emissions cap.
The proposed oil and gas emissions cap is in reality a federal government-imposed cap on oil and gas production and, if implemented, will result in a production cut of at least one million barrels a day of oil and gas in Alberta, while effectively prohibiting any production growth.
The Canadian constitution clearly gives provinces exclusive jurisdiction over non-renewable natural resource development. Multiple reports have shown an emissions cap will kill 150,000 jobs, devastate Alberta’s economy, cut production, and hurt Albertans.
Yet, on Nov. 4, the federal government introduced draft regulations for an oil and gas emissions cap, ignoring concerns from many provinces, industry, businesses and Albertans.
In response, Alberta’s government will introduce an Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act motion to stop a federal cap from infringing on the province’s distinct jurisdiction and killing good-paying jobs. The resolution asks the legislative assembly for approval to take a series of swift, effective actions designed to protect Alberta if the production cap ever becomes law.
“We will continue to defend our province from Ottawa’s senseless and direct attack. Our motion protects Albertans’ jobs and livelihoods, puts Ottawa back in their place, and ensures we can continue to support global energy security with Alberta oil and gas for decades to come.”
Independent analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte and S&P Global all show the devastating impact of the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap. This includes cutting production by one million barrels a day by 2030 and draining billions from Canada’s economy. In addition, the Conference Board of Canada estimates that up to 150,000 Canadian jobs could be lost as a result of the cap. As a result of these – and other – impacts, the average Canadian family would have up to $419 less for groceries, mortgage payments and utilities every month.
“This cap is not actually about emissions. This is about the federal government wanting to cut oil and gas production and control our energy sector, even if it costs thousands of jobs and hurts Canadians from coast to coast. We are standing up for our province and protecting Albertans from this extreme federal overreach.”
If passed, the actions proposed in the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act motion will help protect Alberta’s economy while the province continues producing responsible energy to meet the world’s growing demands.
The motion proposes that the government launch an immediate constitutional challenge when, or if, the federal production cap becomes law. It also instructs the government to consider passing legislation, amending provincial regulations or taking whatever other steps are needed to:
- Ensure that no provincial entity participates in the enforcement or implementation of the federal cap.
- Ensure that all interest holder oil and gas production facilities and related infrastructure in Alberta (Interest Holder Facilities) are ‘essential infrastructure’ subject to the protections granted under Alberta’s Critical Infrastructure Defence Act.
- Prohibit entry by any individual, including any federal official or contractor, onto any Interest Holder Facilities, excepting any interest holders, employees and contractors, and those specifically licensed to enter by the Government of Alberta.
- Declare all information that is directly or indirectly related to greenhouse gas, collected at Interest Holder Facilities, as proprietary information exclusively owned by the Government of Alberta, and mandate that all emissions data be reported and disclosed at the province’s discretion.
- Effectively sell conventional oil through the Conventional Oil Royalty-in-Kind program, and work collaboratively with industry to implement a Bitumen Royalty-in-Kind program for bitumen, and develop a similar program for natural gas, if necessary.
- Work collaboratively and proactively with other provinces and territories, the United States and First Nations to double oil and gas pipeline capacity to tidewater and the United States of America.
If the motion is passed, Alberta’s government will immediately begin taking steps to be ready to protect the province if the federal regulations become law.
Quick facts:
- Alberta has repeatedly expressed that the federal cap is unconstitutional and impermissibly intrudes into an area of exclusive provincial jurisdiction as set out in section 92A of the Constitution Act, 1867.
- The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that royalties in Alberta will drop by $2-4 billion in 2030-31 under the emissions cap.
- Deloitte forecasts a $26 billion cut to Canada’s overall GDP in 2035, including a $16 billion decline in the GDP produced by oil and gas. It forecasts a five per cent decline in revenue for Alberta by 2035.
- Via the ScraptheCap.ca, over 4,000 people have sent letters to their Members of Parliament and federal ministers, and there have been over 12 million views of the current video online.
- Albertans and Canadians can continue to use the website to send letters.
Related information
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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