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Alberta

Premier Smith meets with Prime Minister Trudeau

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Premier Danielle Smith met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on July 7 to discuss economic priorities.

Although the meeting was constructive, there are still several concerning issues that need to be resolved if Alberta and the federal government are to reach an agreement on an emissions-reduction plan that will simultaneously secure a reliable and affordable electricity grid, protect Alberta workers and drive economic growth in our energy sector for decades.

The positive news is the federal government has agreed to immediately form a bilateral working group with the Alberta government to work on an aligned framework to incentivize investment in carbon capture, utilization and storage as well as other emissions-reducing technologies.

This group would also work to develop a regulatory framework for the construction and use of small modular reactor technology in our province and to secure credit for carbon reduction through increased LNG exports to international markets. Article 6 in the Paris Accord allows for jurisdictions to receive credit for reducing emissions in other countries.

These are welcome developments.

However, the federal government has yet to formally recognize Alberta’s exclusive jurisdiction to set its own emissions-reduction targets and milestones on the path to a carbon-neutral energy sector and electricity grid by 2050.

They continue to set targets for a 42 per cent reduction in energy sector emissions by 2030 and a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. Both of these targets are unachievable, will drive billions of investment out of Alberta, massively increase electricity costs and result in the loss of tens of thousands of Alberta jobs.

We also understand the federal government is set to release its draft so-called ‘clean electricity’ regulations (CER) for feedback in the coming weeks, and which do not initially include a carve-out for provinces like Alberta, which needs more time to transition to a carbon-neutral power grid due to our reliance on natural gas-fired electricity generation.

It will be critical after this initial feedback period is complete that Ottawa grant Alberta’s requested CER carve-out until the working group has reached an agreement on decarbonizing our power grid that Albertans can afford and support.

Albertans have borne the significant cost of replacing all coal-fired electricity generation with natural gas seven years ahead of schedule, for which ratepayers have already paid billions in compensation and will continue to make these compensation payments through 2030.

Alberta has sovereign and exclusive constitutional jurisdiction to regulate our energy and electricity industries. This is non-negotiable.

We have asked the federal government to come to the table in good faith and to assess the realities of our power grid and the true magnitude of being the fifth-largest producer of oil and gas in the world.

If Ottawa does not recognize and support Alberta’s exclusive right to regulate these sectors of our economy, our province will have no choice but to use alternative policy options to protect our rights independent of federal interference.

Our sincere hope is that the newly formed federal and provincial working group will be able to facilitate an agreement that will align Ottawa’s efforts with the Alberta government’s Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan.

Failing to reach an agreement on these matters would be an unprecedented missed opportunity that would cost our country tens of billions in economic investment and countless jobs from coast to coast. We look forward to starting the working group as soon as possible.

Alberta

Big win for Alberta and Canada: Statement from Premier Smith

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Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:

“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.

“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.

“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.

“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.

“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.

“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”

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Alberta

Energy sector will fuel Alberta economy and Canada’s exports for many years to come

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.

Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.

In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.

Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.

The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.

Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.

Jock Finlayson

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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