Alberta
Ottawa’s emissions policies will impose huge costs on Albertans
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill and Elmira Aliakbari
The path Trudeau is forcing us down leads to a much poorer economy (completely cratering Canada’s energy industry while making everything more expensive) and negative environmental benefit (that’s right, it’s worse as developing nations use the energy that’s cheapest). So maybe it’s time to scrap the tax.
The federal NDP recently ended its support for the consumer carbon tax citing its significant cost to everyday Canadians. But Canada’s costly climate change policies extend beyond the carbon tax. Indeed, the Trudeau government has introduced numerous policies in an attempt to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which impose major costs on Albertans.
The consumer carbon tax is perhaps the most widely known GHG reduction policy, which places a price on carbon (currently at $80 per tonne) and is set to rise to $170 per tonne by 2030. However, the Trudeau government has also imposed other regulations and mandates, including clean fuel regulations, electric vehicle mandates, the phase-out of coal-based electrical generation and building efficiency mandates.
The costs? According to a recent study, these GHG policies will shrink the Alberta economy (as measured by GDP) by an estimated 6.0 per cent by 2030. And employment in the province is expected to decline by 0.9 per cent. To put these figures into perspective, a 6.0 per cent contraction in 2024 would have shrunk the provincial economy by $27.7 billion, while a 0.9 per cent decrease in employment would have meant a loss of approximately 22,837 jobs (based on data for August 2024).
While these policies are expected to reduce GHG emissions, they fall short of meeting the government’s national GHG reduction targets. As a result, further economic pain will be required if the federal government implements additional measures to further reduce GHGs emissions.
These findings echo other studies that measure the effects of various climate change policies. According to a report by Deloitte, for instance, Trudeau’s policy to cap GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector (to 35 to 38 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030) will lead to less investment, nearly 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5 per cent decrease in economic output (i.e. GDP) among the provinces by 2040. Unsurprisingly, Alberta is projected to be the hardest hit province.
And here’s the kicker—these huge economic costs come with little to no actual environmental benefit. Even if Canada shut down its entire oil and gas sector by 2030, thus eliminating all GHG emissions from the sector, the resulting reduction would equal four-tenths of 1 per cent of global emissions, which would have an undetectable impact on the climate. Meanwhile, as demand for fossil fuels continues to increase, constraining oil and gas production and exports in Canada merely shifts production to other countries, which have lower environmental and human rights standards such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
The Trudeau government’s climate change regulations are imposing huge costs on Albertans with little to no actual environmental benefit. While support for some of these policies—particularly the consumer carbon tax—is waning, federal policymakers should seriously rethink numerous other regulations.
Authors:
Yakk Stack By Sheldon Yakiwchuk
Prior to Trumps inauguration event and announcement was made that Trump would not be imposing the 25% tariffs…
Which means, Canada seriously dodged a bullet here.
And while the Liberals will most likely frame this as, their success in showing, Bad Orange Man, that they’re tough and ready to burn down what is left of our economy, throwing Alberta under the bus, first…through a nuclear option…
Premier Smith rode this challenge out like the true champion we knew that she would be.
It’s hard to say if this was a legality matter in the grander scheme…or if the 25% tariffs would have truly been as big of an impact on the US…
One thing is clear, however…
Smith was ready to go to the tables with the Trump administration and opt for diplomacy over threats…which should be what we expect from our leaders.
And should these 25% tariffs have gone through…I’m more than sure a Plan B would have been brought out in civil conversations, over screeching rhetoric.
“She’s treasonous”, they screeched.
“She’s supporting her friends in Oil and Gas”, they relent.
“She should put Canada first”, they echo…
And let’s just address these…
Is Walmart beholden to Campbells soup? Fruit of the Loom? Kraft?
Or does Walmart sell products that helps keep their doors open?
Walmart is not beholden to any product…just like Premier Smith isn’t. We have 26% of our GDP – the largest portion – owed to Alberta O&G, something that we have a limited trade partner with, due to the Liberal – Anti-Alberta/Anti-O&G/Anti-Pipeline attitude that wants to spend us further in debt with unreliable and expensive “Renewables”.
What does Alberta get from renewables?
A higher cost for energy, in an affordability crisis, created by the same people who continue to push them…sounds like a terrible deal, for Albertans, and something a true leader would Not Favor.
When Walmart sits down to hash out a deal with Heinz, are they committing treason because they haven’t shown their allegiance to their own, ‘Great Value’ brand Ketchup?
No…other provinces have their own industries and resources, which they are free to continue developing independent of the federal government, as is suitable and supportive of their own economies…Alberta isn’t competing with them, nor Canada as a whole.
Alberta through industry and resource, actually supports Canada through a grand imbalance on “Equalization Payments”…
As do we through paying 50% more into the Canada Pension Plan, than we actually get out of the Canada Pension Plan…to the tune of a $334 Billion Dollars.
And as for this “Team Canada”, horseshit…
The title Premier of Alberta, should hold some clues as to who Premier Smith should be advocating for…as she is the Premier of Alberta and Not the Prime Minister, nor leader in the Liberal Party that has created this fiasco, to begin with.
Rail, as they may…other provinces can’t cast a vote in her support, either way…
None of the other provinces, through Members of Parliament, nor through Premiers, came to support Alberta and our economy through a number of Federal Bills that railed on our provincial resources…
Worse yet…these hypocrites cash cheques from our province, while telling us how to diversify our economy…to which I’d state one thing unequivocally…
If we wanted to be a Have Not Province…like you are…we’ll come and ask you for your advice.
Until then…
I’ll hold my Alberta Flag Higher than my Canadian…
And be proud today, of having the only Premier in the country of Canada, worthy of any praise today!
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement, welcoming the U.S. tariff reprieve and calling for strategic action:
“Alberta is pleased to see that today President Donald Trump has decided to refrain from imposing tariffs on Canadian goods at this time as they study the issue further.
“We appreciate the implied acknowledgement that this is a complex and delicate issue with serious implications for American and Canadian workers, businesses and consumers given the integration of our markets, along with our critical energy and security partnership.
“Avoiding tariffs will save hundreds of thousands of Canadian and American jobs across every sector. As an example, declining to impose U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy preserves the viability of dozens of U.S. refineries and facilities that upgrade Alberta crude, and the jobs of tens of thousands of Americans employed at them.
“Despite the promising news today, the threat of U.S. tariffs is still very real. As a country, we need to immediately take the following steps to preserve and strengthen our economic and security partnership with the United States, and to avoid the future imposition of tariffs:
- Focus on diplomacy and refrain from further talk of retaliatory measures, including export tariffs or cutting off energy to the U.S. Having spoken with the President, as well as dozens of governors, senators, members of congress and allies of the incoming administration, I am convinced that the path to a positive resolution with our U.S. allies is strong and consistent diplomacy and working in good faith towards shared priorities. The worst possible response to today’s news would be the federal government or premiers declaring “victory” or escalating tensions with unnecessary threats against the United States.
- Negotiate ways to increase what Canadians and Americans buy from one another. As an example, the United States should look at purchasing more oil, timber and agricultural products from Canada, while Canada should look at purchasing more American gas turbines, military equipment and the computer hardware needed to build our growing AI data centre sector. Finding ways to increase trade in both directions is critical to achieving a win-win for both countries.
- Double down on border security. Within the next month, all border provinces should either by themselves, or in partnership with the federal government, deploy the necessary resources to secure our shared border from illegal drugs and migration.
- Announce a major acceleration of Canada’s 2 per cent of GDP NATO target. This is clearly a shared priority that benefits both of our nations. There is no excuse for further delay.
- Crack down on immigration streams and loopholes that are known to permit individuals hostile to Canada and the United States to enter our country, and restore immigration levels and rules to those under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
- Immediately repeal all federal anti-energy policies (production cap, Clean Electricity Regulations, Impact Assessment Act [Bill C-69]) and fast track Northern Gateway and Energy East projects pre-approvals.”
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