Connect with us

Economy

One Solution to Canada’s Housing Crisis: Move. Toronto loses nearly half million people to more affordable locations

Published

7 minute read

From the Frontier Centre for Public Policy

By Wendell Cox

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700.

Canadians are fleeing overpriced cities to find more affordable housing. And restrictive urban planning policies are to blame.

Canadians may be solving the housing crisis on their own by moving away from more expensive areas to areas where housing is much more affordable. This trend is highlighted in the latest internal migration data from Statistics Canada.

The data covers 167 areas comprising the entire nation, including Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs), which have populations from 100,000 to seven million. It also includes the smaller Census Agglomerations (CAs), which have a core population of at least 10,000, as well as areas outside CMAs and CAs in each province and territory, which are referred to as “largely rural areas.”

Long-standing migration trends have been virtually reversed. Larger cities (CMAs) now see the highest loss of net internal migrants, while smaller cities (CAs) are experiencing solid gains. Between 2019 and 2023, Canada’s CMAs lost 273,800 net internal migrants to smaller areas, including CAs and largely rural areas. This contrasts sharply with the previous five-year period (2014 to 2018) when CMAs saw only a 1,000-person loss.

So, where did these people go? A significant portion – 108,100 – moved to CAs, which captured 39 per cent of the CMA losses. This is triple that of the previous five years (2014 through 2018).

However, the most notable shift occurred in largely rural areas, which gained 165,700 net internal migrants, representing 61 per cent of CMA losses. This is a dramatic increase compared to the 33,700 net loss in the previous five years.

Among the 167 areas, the migration data is stunning.

The areas experiencing the greatest net internal migration are outside CMAs and CAs. The largely rural area of Ontario saw the biggest gain, with a net increase of 78,300 people – nearly 40 times the number from the previous five years. Meanwhile, rural Quebec placed second, with a net gain of 76,200 people, more than 10 times the increase in the prior five years. The Calgary CMA ranked third (and first among CMAs) at 42,600, followed by the Ottawa Gatineau CMA (Ontario and Quebec) at 36,700 and the Oshawa CMA at 34,900.

The largest CMA, Toronto, had by far the most significant net internal migration loss at 402,600, Montreal lost 162,700, and Vancouver lost 49,700. Outside these CMAs, nearly all areas posted net gains.

People have also started moving to the Maritimes. The Halifax CMA tripled its previous gain (21,300). In New Brunswick, Moncton nearly quadrupled its gain (7,000). Modest gains were also made in Fredericton and Saint John as well as in Charlottetown in Prince Edward Island.

Meanwhile, housing affordability in Canada’s largest CMAs has become grim. Toronto’s median house price to median household income has doubled in less than two decades. Vancouver’s prices have tripled relative to incomes in five decades. Montreal’s house prices nearly doubled relative to incomes over two decades.

These CMAs (and others) have housing policies typical of the international planning orthodoxy, which seeks to make cities denser. In effect, they have declared war against “urban sprawl,” trying to stop any material expansion of urbanization. These urban containment policies, which include greenbelts, agricultural reserves, urban growth boundaries and compact city strategies, are associated with the worst housing affordability. Land prices are skewed upward throughout the market. Demand continues to increase ahead of incomes, but the supply of low-cost suburban land, so crucial to controlling costs, is frozen.

Regrettably, some areas where people have fled are also subject to urban containment and housing affordability has deteriorated rapidly. Between 2015 and 2022, prices in Ontario CMAs London, Guelph, Brantford and St. Catharines have about doubled. BC’s Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island have seen similar increases. Those moving to these areas are ahead financially, but the rapidly rising house prices are closing opportunities.

There are proposals to restore housing affordability, though none tackle the urban containment policies associated with the price increases. Indeed, we have not found a single metropolitan area where housing affordability has been restored with the market distortions of the intensity that have developed in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal (not in our Demographia International Housing Affordability report or elsewhere). Such markets have become unsustainable for most new entrant households because they cannot afford to live there.

Housing is not a commodity. Households have varying preferences, from ground-oriented housing (detached and townhomes) to high-rise condos. Indeed, a growing body of literature associates detached housing with higher total fertility rates. According to Statistics Canada, Canadians have favoured lower densities for decades, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, a trend that continued through the 2021 Census, according to Statistics Canada.

With governments (virtually around the world) failing to maintain stable and affordable housing markets, it’s not surprising people are taking matters into their own hands. Until fundamental reforms can be implemented in the most expensive markets, those seeking a better quality of life will have no choice but to leave.

First published in the Financial Post.

Wendell Cox is a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy and the author of Demographia International Housing Affordability.

Todayville is a digital media and technology company. We profile unique stories and events in our community. Register and promote your community event for free.

Follow Author

Business

Why should Liberal MPs defend the carbon tax now?

Published on

From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax should be tucked under his arm while he doesn’t let the door hit them on the way out.

And Liberal caucus members need to make sure that happens.

Those in doubt need to ask themselves two questions.

Practically, why should Canadians keep paying the carbon tax for another few months before the next election?

Politically, why should government MPs keep paying a price with voters because of the carbon tax?

The carbon tax can be slayed on Wednesday during the Liberal party’s emergency caucus meeting.

Caucus finally rose up and finally forced the prime minister to face the reality that he can’t get re-elected.

But that’s only half of the job.

The problem isn’t just one person. It’s the policies. And Trudeau’s trademark carbon tax is one of his biggest failures. Replacing the PM while keeping the carbon tax is like switching the blackjack dealer while still facing a stacked deck.

And the Liberal caucus knows this.

Those Liberal MPs have been yelled at by their constituents about the carbon tax for years.

Hardworking people have been telling these MPs they can’t afford the carbon tax and it’s unfair to be punished for driving to work, heating their homes and buying food.

Those MPs have seen their constituents’ heating bills, the costs of their commutes and the invoices for their businesses.

They know the carbon tax adds about $13 to the cost of filling a minivan and about $20 extra to fill a pickup. They know the carbon tax is costing long haul truckers about $2 billion this year and they know it will cost farmers $1 billion in the next five years.

They know Canada misses its emissions targets, even with the carbon tax.

And here’s the big one: these MPs know the carbon tax is getting hiked on April 1.

The timeline has to be terrifying for Liberals seeking re-election.

March 24, the House of Commons reconvenes.

The government presents its Throne speech and immediately starts facing confidence votes with all opposition parties promising to vote against the government.

Then, on April 1, the government raises the carbon tax again.

Imagine door knocking after losing a confidence vote and raising the carbon tax.

Imagine being an MP from southern Ontario and a greenhouse tomato grower walks into your office with a chart showing his carbon tax costs.

Imagine trying to tell that farmer that he “gets more back” than he pays in the carbon tax.

Picture being an MP from Halifax and telling your constituents they need to buy an electric heat pump as their sole source of winter warmth before the carbon tax slaps them again.

Nova Scotia has charming weather events such as ice fog which seeps into a house like a ghost from a Dickens novel. So, most Maritime folks still need a furnace and Trudeau’s carbon tax punishes them.

These MPs have all been hollered at by their constituents who have been wounded by the carbon tax.

No matter how much the MPs may have pleaded with Trudeau behind closed doors, he kept the carbon tax and forced his MPs to defend it.

Trudeau tied this millstone to the necks of his MPs and didn’t care how much it ground them down.

But he’s leaving now.

And these Liberal MPs have the opportunity to cut the rope and free themselves from Trudeau’s carbon tax.

The Liberal caucus is holding an emergency meeting on Parliament Hill on Wednesday, and those members of Parliament need to demand an end to carbon tax then and there.

Why should they force Canadians to keep muttering profanities when they fill up their cars or pay the carbon tax charges on their heating bills?

Why should Liberal MPs face day after day of berating phone calls from constituents who don’t buy PMO talking points about the carbon tax?

The least they can do is spare Canadians the cost of the carbon tax right now and try to do the right thing in the end.

On Wednesday, Liberal MPs have to demand an end to the carbon tax.

Continue Reading

Alberta

Province to double Alberta’s oil production

Published on

The Government of Alberta is working with partners to increase pipeline capacity in pursuit of its goal to double crude oil production and increase exports to the United States.

 

Alberta is a strong partner to the United States, currently delivering more than 4.3 million barrels per day to the U.S. The province is committed to increasing Alberta’s crude oil production and preserving and adding pipeline capacity, supporting North American energy security as well as enabling increased U.S. production.

The Government of Alberta is taking immediate action to accelerate its plan to increase pipeline capacity to get more product to market and more value for its product.

A critical step towards achieving this goal includes working directly with industry. This is why Alberta’s government has signed a letter of intent with Enbridge, which will form a working group with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC). The working group will evaluate future egress, transport, storage, terminalling and market access opportunities across the more than 29,000 kilometres of the Enbridge network in support of moving more Alberta oil and gas to Canadians and American partners.

“The world needs more Alberta oil and gas, and we need to make sure Alberta is meeting those needs. Our objective of doubling oil production aligns with Enbridge’s plans to enhance its existing pipeline systems and we look forward to partnering with them to enhance cross-border transport solutions. This will also allow us to play a role in supporting the United States in its energy security and affordability goals.”

Danielle Smith, Premier

The working group will focus on preserving and optimizing egress, developing opportunities to expand along Enbridge’s current footprint, and developing new solutions to improve global market access and maximize the value of Alberta’s commodity. Additionally, it will work with government to cut red tape and streamline regulations and permitting approvals. It will also assess opportunities for shared investment and benefit to both Albertans and Enbridge by leveraging BRIK (Bitumen-Royalty-In-Kind) barrels.

“A strong and growing Alberta oil and gas transport and storage network will allow the Government of Alberta to maximize the economic benefits for all Albertans from our bitumen and natural gas royalties. We must also pursue regulatory reform where needed so Alberta can continue to be an attractive place for companies to invest.”

Brian Jean, Minister of Energy and Minerals

“Enbridge has 75 years of experience delivering Alberta’s energy, safely and cost-effectively to support the region’s economy, unlock export value and help meet North American demand. We’re prepared – and exceptionally well-positioned – to work with producers and governments to deliver capacity as production ramps up, providing cost-effective, scalable, executable solutions now and through the decade that support North American energy security, reliability and affordability.”

Greg Ebel, president and chief executive officer, Enbridge Inc.
Continue Reading

Trending

X