Alberta
On Friday, Alberta’s energy minister hailed their largest solar project. On Sunday, it was producing 10.9% at noon
This was the opening splash for a video clip posted by the Alberta energy minister on social media. Two days later, its power output at noon was barely 11 per cent. YouTube/Canadian Energy Centre
From PipelineOnline.ca
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
And wind was doing even worse
Even though Alberta’s build-out of 38 wind farms and 36 solar farms have resulted in an enormous growth of nameplate power generating capacity, the reality was far from the advertised on Sunday, according to data from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).
Despite the noon hour being defined as the sun being at its highest point in the sky, Alberta’s grid-scale solar facilities were having a tough day on Oct. 22. At 11:53 a.m., solar was producing 152 megawatts out of an installed base of 1,292 megawatts. That was 11.8 per cent of capacity. On a good day, that number is closer to 1,000 megawatts around noon.
Power generation in Alberta at 11:53 a.m. on Oct. 22. All numbers are in megawatts, MC is maximum capacity, and TNG is total net to grid. Alberta Electric System Operator
It wasn’t hard to figure out why solar hand tanked. A belt of heavy clouds, visible from Environment and Climate Change Canada satellite imagery, blanketed the principle solar power production region of southern Alberta.
Heavy clouds covered southern Alberta at 11:30 a.m. on Sunday. Environment and Climate Change Canada
Travers, the largest solar facility in Canada with a rated capacity of 465 megawatts and having cost $700 million, was producing 51 megawatts a few minutes before noon. That was 10.9 per cent. Ironically, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean had posted on LinkedIn on Oct. 20, “Did you know Alberta is home to Canada’s largest solar farm? Once we set clear rules around land use, reclamation and transmission, we’ll get back to work leading Canada and the world on renewable electricity. I’m proud of our energy workers. Check out this incredible clip 👇”
That 22 second video clip was originally posted by the Canadian Energy Centre, the Alberta government’s “war room,” whose mission is to set the record straight, as it were. “The Canadian Energy Centre’s mandate is to promote Canada as the supplier of choice for the world’s growing demand for responsibly produced energy,” says the Centre’s mandate.
Wind peters out
And wind power production was having an even worse day, with wind power plummeting as the morning turned into afternoon. By that time, wind was generating just 67 megawatts out of an installed based of 3,853 megawatts. That’s just 1.7 per cent of nameplate capacity.
So at that moment, combined wind and solar were producing 219 megawatts out of a nameplate capacity of 5,145, or 4.3 per cent of capacity.
Alberta’s final remaining coal-fired power facility was producing 802 of 820 megawatts of nameplate capacity, or 97.8 per cent. And its power output was 3.7 times the total output of all grid-scale wind and solar across Alberta, from 36 solar farms and 38 wind facilities, composed of hundreds of turbines and costing billions of dollars. As noted above, Travers, alone, cost $700 million and covers 3,330 acres with 1.3 million solar panels.
That last remaining coal plant, the Genesee Power Station, will soon be converted to natural gas, meaning an end to coal-fired power generation in Alberta – a province whose coal reserves run from Edmonton southwest to the BC and US borders.
The wind situation stayed much the same throughout the afternoon, and by 4:18, solar had dropped to 69 megawatts and wind was just 83 megawatts.
Wind generation in Alberta at 11:53 a.m. on Oct. 22. Twenty-four of 38 wind farms were producing exactly zero power at that moment. All numbers are in megawatts, MC is maximum capacity, and TNG is total net to grid. Alberta Electric System Operator
And near the supper hour, X bot account @ReliableAB noted AESO data showing wind was producing 86 megawatts and solar was producing 28 megawatts. At that moment, fossil fuels, principally natural gas, accounted 94.3 per cent of Alberta’s electricity. Alberta was getting 345 megawatts of power from imports, and batteries were contributing zero megawatts.
At this moment 94.3% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 2.2% of capacity and producing 0.9% of total generation, while solar is at 2.2% of capacity and producing 0.29% of total generation. At the same time we are importing 345 MW or 3% pic.twitter.com/3gCrbqKvaI
— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) October 22, 2023
That 94.3 per cent is significant, because the federal government’s clean electricity regulations will require “unabated” fossil fuel power generation to shut down by 2035, with the exception that unabated natural gas generation could be used for up to 450 hours per year, per generator. As Premier Danielle Smith has pointed out, those hours would have been used up by the end of January in the calendar year of 2023, meaning by this time of year, Alberta’s grid, if those regulations were followed to the letter, would effectively be in almost total blackout. And to compound the situation, not only does the federal government expect provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan to replace all that power generation in 11 years, two months and nine days, but also be on the path of increasing total power generation by a factor of 2.5x in 26 years, two months and nine days.
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance
Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.
After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.
Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.
“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”
“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”
Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.
Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.
Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.
In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.
Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.
By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.
“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”
Quick facts
- Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
- A 2023 report by MNP shows
Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.
Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.
The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.
Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.
“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”
Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:
- $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
- $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
- $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
- $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
- $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
- $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
- $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
- $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
- $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.
Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.
After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.
Revenue
Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:
- $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
- $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.
Expense
Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.
Surplus cash
After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.
- $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
- The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.
Contingency
Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.
- The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.
Debt
Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.
- Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.
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