Alberta
Nutrien to slightly delay potash production ramp-up as global sales slump
CALGARY — Nutrien Ltd. will slightly delay the timing of its plan to ramp up potash production, due to slumping sales.
The Saskatoon-based company, which is the largest fertilizer producer in the world, announced disappointing fourth-quarter financial results Wednesday evening.
Nutrien Ltd. came in below Wall Street estimates, earning $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, down seven per cent from the same quarter a year earlier.
On a conference call with analysts Thursday, CEO Ken Seitz said Nutrien will slightly delay its previously announced plan to increase its annual potash production capability to 18 million tonnes by 2025, and will instead reach that milestone by 2026 instead.
However, Seitz said long-term fundamentals for potash remain strong, and Nutrien simply wants to be flexible and adjust its plans to match the pace of demand recovery.
“The outlook for our business is strong as we expect global supply issues to persist and demand for crop inputs to increase in 2023,” Seitz said.
It has been a volatile period for Nutrien, which achieved record earnings in 2021 and then saw fertilizer prices spike in March of 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war shook up global agricultural markets and reduced supplies of fertilizer from Eastern Europe.
To meet increased global demand, Nutrien announced its potash ramp-up plan, which represents an increase of more than five million tonnes, or 40 per cent, compared to 2020 production levels.
The company has said it will achieve this by investing in expansions at its existing Saskatchewan mines, including the hiring of approximately 350 more people.
However, in the second half of 2022, the company suffered what it calls a “historic” decline in the pace of its potash shipments. In North America and Brazil in particular, farmers appeared to be postponing fertilizer purchases in the face of high prices. Last year’s cool wet spring in North America also compressed the planting season and led to less fertilizer going into the ground.
Seitz said the company has seen improved potash demand so far in 2023, but added Nutrien’s estimate for global potash shipments this year is 63 to 67 million tonnes, which is still constrained compared to the historical trend demand of around 70 million tonnes.
In spite of the dramatic decline in potash demands in the second half of 2022, the first six months of the year were so strong that Nutrien’s earnings for the full financial year were $7.7 billion, 142 per cent higher than in 2021.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 16, 2023.
Companies in this story: (TSX:TKTK)
Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press
From the Fraser Institute
On Monday, the Smith government announced that beginning next year it will change the way it funds surgeries in Alberta. This is a big step towards unlocking the ability of Alberta’s health-care system to provide more, better and faster services for the same or possibly fewer dollars.
To understand the significance of this change, you must understand the consequences of the current (and outdated) approach.
Currently, the Alberta government pays a lump sum of money to hospitals each year. Consequently, hospitals perceive patients as a drain on their budgets. From the hospital’s perspective, there’s little financial incentive to serve more patients, operate more efficiently and provide superior quality services.
Consider what would happen if your local grocery store received a giant bag of money each year to feed people. The number of items would quickly decline to whatever was most convenient for the store to provide. (Have a favourite cereal? Too bad.) Store hours would become less convenient for customers, alongside a general decline in overall service. This type of grocery store, like an Alberta hospital, is actually financially better off (that is, it saves money) if you go elsewhere.
The Smith government plans to flip this entire system on its head, to the benefit of patients and taxpayers. Instead of handing out bags of money each year to providers, the new system—known as “activity-based funding”—will pay health-care providers for each patient they treat, based on the patient’s particular condition and important factors that may add complexity or cost to their care.
This turns patients from a drain on budgets into a source of additional revenue. The result, as has been demonstrated in other universal health-care systems worldwide, is more services delivered using existing health-care infrastructure, lower wait times, improved quality of care, improved access to medical technologies, and less waste.
In other words, Albertans will receive far better value from their health-care system, which is currently among the most expensive in the world. And relief can’t come soon enough—for example, last year in Alberta the median wait time for orthopedic surgeries including hip and knee replacements was 66.8 weeks.
The naysayers argue this approach will undermine the province’s universal system and hurt patients. But by allowing a spectrum of providers to compete for the delivery of quality care, Alberta will follow the lead of other more successful universal health-care systems in countries such as Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland and create greater accountability for hospitals and other health-care providers. Taxpayers will get a much better picture of what they’re paying for and how much they pay.
Again, Alberta is not exploring an untested policy. Almost every other developed country with universal health care uses some form of “activity-based funding” for hospital and surgical care. And remember, we already spend more on health care than our counterparts in nearly all of these countries yet endure longer wait times and poorer access to services generally, in part because of how we pay for surgical care.
While the devil is always in the details, and while it’s still possible for the Alberta government to get this wrong, Monday’s announcement is a big step in the right direction. A funding model that puts patients first will get Albertans more of the high-quality health care they already pay for in a timelier fashion. And provide to other provinces an example of bold health-care reform.
Nadeem Esmail
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
From the Montreal Economic Institute
Alberta’s move to fund acute care services through activity-based funding follows best practices internationally, points out an MEI researcher following an announcement made by Premier Danielle Smith earlier today.
“For too long, the way hospitals were funded in Alberta incentivized treating fewer patients, contributing to our long wait times,” explains Krystle Wittevrongel, director of research at the MEI. “International experience has shown that, with the proper funding models in place, health systems become more efficient to the benefit of patients.”
Currently, Alberta’s hospitals are financed under a system called “global budgeting.” This involves allocating a pre-set amount of funding to pay for a specific number of services based on previous years’ budgets.
Under the government’s newly proposed funding system, hospitals receive a fixed payment for each treatment delivered.
An Economic Note published by the MEI last year showed that Quebec’s gradual adoption of activity-based funding led to higher productivity and lower costs in the province’s health system.
Notably, the province observed that the per-procedure cost of MRIs fell by four per cent as the number of procedures performed increased by 22 per cent.
In the radiology and oncology sector, it observed productivity increases of 26 per cent while procedure costs decreased by seven per cent.
“Being able to perform more surgeries, at lower costs, and within shorter timelines is exactly what Alberta’s patients need, and Premier Smith understands that,” continued Mrs. Wittevrongel. “Today’s announcement is a good first step, and we look forward to seeing a successful roll-out once appropriate funding levels per procedure are set.”
The governments expects to roll-out this new funding model for select procedures starting in 2026.
* * *
The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.
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