Alberta
New COVID-19 modelling concludes the most likely scenario is much lower than former numbers
From the Province of Alberta
COVID-19 modelling data update
Revised data show protective measures and the efforts of Albertans are making a critical difference in our fight against COVID-19.
The Government of Alberta has introduced a new “low” modelling scenario estimating 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak. If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta.
Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May. However, the number of Albertans hospitalized at the peak of the virus is predicted to be lower than originally estimated. This reflects Alberta’s experience over the past few weeks and the proportion of cases actually entering hospital and intensive care units.
“The data show us that our efforts to lower the peak of the virus are working, but we must remain vigilant. We continue to refine our modelling in order to ensure our health-care system is prepared. While we are still a ways off from returning to our normal way of life, our government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy safely. It is essential Albertans continue to exercise common sense and follow public health guidance so we can get the economy moving again as quickly as possible.”
As a result of aggressive public health measures put in place, the probable scenario now estimates 596 people in Alberta will require hospitalization, with 190 requiring critical care on the days when the virus reaches its peak. With Alberta’s younger-than-average population and our aggressive testing measures, which are able to catch cases with less severe symptoms, Alberta Health’s new “low” scenario is fortunately becoming our most realistic.
Alberta Health has scaled up the capacity of the province’s health-care system in order to ensure it is prepared to support patients at the peak of the pandemic in any scenario.
Existing public health measures remain in place to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Quick facts
- The model uses several key assumptions, including:
- not all cases are detected
- transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
- there is no asymptomatic transmission
- people are infectious for five to 10 days
- all ICU patients require ventilation
- overall, nine per cent of cases are hospitalized and two per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age. The low scenario assumes 4.5 per cent of cases are hospitalized and one per cent require ICU, which aligns with actual results.
- The most important measure Albertans can take to prevent respiratory illnesses, including COVID-19, is to practise good hygiene.
- This includes cleaning your hands regularly for at least 20 seconds, avoiding touching your face, coughing or sneezing into your elbow or sleeve, and disposing of tissues appropriately.
- Any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19, including cough, fever, runny nose, sore throat or shortness of breath, is eligible for testing. People can access testing by completing the COVID-19 self-assessment online. A separate self-assessment tool is available for health-care and shelter workers, enforcement and first responders. After completing the form, there is no need to call 811.
#RedDeerStrong – Local business pivots from fire resistant workwear to antimicrobial face masks
Alberta
Early Success: 33 Nurse Practitioners already working independently across Alberta
Nurse practitioners expand primary care access |
The Alberta government’s Nurse Practitioner Primary Care program is showing early signs of success, with 33 nurse practitioners already practising independently in communities across the province.
Alberta’s government is committed to strengthening Alberta’s primary health care system, recognizing that innovative approaches are essential to improving access. To further this commitment, the Nurse Practitioner Primary Care Program was launched in April, allowing nurse practitioners to practise comprehensive patient care autonomously, either by operating their own practices or working independently within existing primary care settings.
Since being announced, the program has garnered a promising response. A total of 67 applications have been submitted, with 56 approved. Of those, 33 nurse practitioners are now practising autonomously in communities throughout Alberta, including in rural locations such as Beaverlodge, Coaldale, Cold Lake, Consort, Morley, Picture Butte, Three Hills, Two Hills, Vegreville and Vermilion.
“I am thrilled about the interest in this program, as nurse practitioners are a key part of the solution to provide Albertans with greater access to the primary health care services they need.”
To participate in the program, nurse practitioners are required to commit to providing a set number of hours of medically necessary primary care services, maintain a panel size of at least 900 patients, offer after-hours access on weekends, evenings or holidays, and accept walk-in appointments until a panel size reaches 900 patients.
With 33 nurse practitioners practising independently, about 30,000 more Albertans will have access to the primary health care they need. Once the remaining 23 approved applicants begin practising, primary health care access will expand to almost 21,000 more Albertans.
“Enabling nurse practitioners to practise independently is great news for rural Alberta. This is one more way our government is ensuring communities will have access to the care they need, closer to home.”
“Nurse practitioners are highly skilled health care professionals and an invaluable part of our health care system. The Nurse Practitioner Primary Care Program is the right step to ensuring all Albertans can receive care where and when they need it.”
“The NPAA wishes to thank the Alberta government for recognizing the vital role NPs play in the health care system. Nurse practitioners have long advocated to operate their own practices and are ready to meet the growing health care needs of Albertans. This initiative will ensure that more people receive the timely and comprehensive care they deserve.”
The Nurse Practitioner Primary Care program not only expands access to primary care services across the province but also enables nurse practitioners to practise to their full scope, providing another vital access point for Albertans to receive timely, high-quality care when and where they need it most.
Quick facts
- Through the Nurse Practitioner Primary Care Program, nurse practitioners receive about 80 per cent of the compensation that fee-for-service family physicians earn for providing comprehensive primary care.
- Compensation for nurse practitioners is determined based on panel size (the number of patients under their care) and the number of patient care hours provided.
- Nurse practitioners have completed graduate studies and are regulated by the College of Registered Nurses of Alberta.
- For the second consecutive year, a record number of registrants renewed their permits with the College of Registered Nurses of Alberta (CRNA) to continue practising nursing in Alberta.
- There were more than 44,798 registrants and a 15 per cent increase in nurse practitioners.
- Data from the Nurse Practitioner Primary Care Program show:
- Nine applicants plan to work on First Nations reserves or Metis Settlements.
- Parts of the province where nurse practitioners are practising: Calgary (12), Edmonton (five), central (six), north (three) and south (seven).
- Participating nurse practitioners who practise in eligible communities for the Rural, Remote and Northern Program will be provided funding as an incentive to practise in rural or remote areas.
- Participating nurse practitioners are also eligible for the Panel Management Support Program, which helps offset costs for physicians and nurse practitioners to provide comprehensive care as their patient panels grow.
Related information
Alberta
Province considering new Red Deer River reservoir east of Red Deer
Central Alberta reservoir study underway
Alberta’s government is moving forward a study to assess the feasibility of building a new reservoir on the Red Deer River to help support growing communities.
Demand for water from communities and businesses is increasing as more families, businesses and industries choose to live and work in central Alberta. The Red Deer River supplies water to hundreds of thousands of Albertans across the region and expanding water storage capacity could help reduce the risk of future droughts and meet the growing water demands.
Alberta’s government has now begun assessing the feasibility of building a potential new reservoir east of Red Deer near Ardley. A two-phase, multi-year study will explore the costs and value of constructing and operating the reservoir, and its impact on downstream communities, farmers and ranchers, and businesses.
“Central Alberta is a growing and thriving, and we are ensuring that it has the water it needs. This study will help us determine if an Ardley reservoir is effective and how it can be built and operated successfully to help us manage and maximize water storage for years to come.”
Reservoirs play a vital role in irrigation, drought management, water security and flood protection. Budget 2024 allocated $4.5 million to explore creating a new reservoir on the Red Deer River, at a damsite about 40 kilometres east of the City of Red Deer.
Work will begin on the scoping phase of the study as soon as possible. This will include reviewing available geotechnical and hydrotechnical information and exploring conceptual dam options. The scoping phase also includes meetings with municipalities and water users in the area to hear their views. This work is expected to be completed by December 2025.
“Reliable water infrastructure is essential for Alberta’s growing communities and industries. The Ardley reservoir feasibility study is a vital step toward ensuring long-term water security for central Alberta. As we assess this project’s potential, we’re supporting the sustainability of our economic corridors, agricultural operations and rural economy.”
“Water is essential to the agriculture industry and if the past few years are any indication, we need to prepare for dry conditions. A potential dam near Ardley could enhance water security and help farmers and ranchers continue to thrive in Alberta’s unpredictable conditions.”
Once that is complete, the feasibility study will then shift into a second phase, looking more closely at whether an effective new dam near Ardley can be safely designed and constructed, and the impact it may have on communities and the environment. Geotechnical and hydrotechnical investigations, cost-benefit analyses and an assessment of environmental and regulatory requirements will occur. The feasibility phase will also include gathering feedback directly from Albertans through public engagement. This work is expected to be completed by March 31, 2026.
Quick facts
- The Ardley dam scoping and feasibility study will be undertaken by Hatch Ltd., a Canadian multi-disciplinary professional services firm.
- Once the feasibility study is complete, government will assess the results and determine whether to pursue this project and proceed with detailed engineering and design work and regulatory approvals.
- Alberta’s government owns and operates several large reservoirs in the South Saskatchewan River Basin that help ensure sufficient water supply to meet demand from communities, irrigators and businesses, while also maintaining a healthy aquatic environment.
- Water stored at Gleniffer Lake, the reservoir created by Dickson Dam, helps supplement low winter flows along the Red Deer River and helps ensure an adequate water supply for Red Deer and Drumheller.
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