From the Macdonald-Laurier Institute

By Alex Dalziel and Jamie Ferrill

In this episode of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Inside Policy Talks podcast, Senior Fellow and National Security Project Lead Alex Dalziel explores the underreported issue of trade-based money laundering (TBML) with Dr. Jamie Ferrill, the head of financial crime studies at Charles Sturt University in Canberra, Australia and a former Canada Border Services Agency officer.

The discussion focuses on how organized crime groups use global trade transactions to disguise illicit proceeds and the threat this presents to the Canada’s trade relationship with the US and beyond.

Definition of TBML: Trade-based money laundering disguises criminal proceeds by moving value through trade transactions instead of transferring physical cash. Criminals (usually) exploit international trade by  manipulating trade documents, engaging in phantom shipping, and altering invoices to disguise illicit funds as legitimate commerce, bypassing conventional financial scrutiny. As Dr. Ferrill explains, “we have dirty money that’s been generated through things like drug trafficking, human trafficking, arms trafficking, sex trafficking, and that money needs to be cleaned in one way or another. Trade is one of the ways that that’s done.”

A Pervasive Problem: TBML is challenging to detect due to the vast scale and complexity of global trade, making it an attractive channel for organized crime groups. Although global estimates are imprecise, the Financial Action Task Force and The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) suggests 2-5% of GDP could be tied to money laundering, representing trillions of dollars annually. In Canada, this could mean over $70 billion in potentially laundered funds each year. Despite the scope of TBML, Canada has seen no successful prosecutions for criminal money laundering through trade, highlighting significant gaps in identifying, investigating and prosecuting these complex cases.

Canada’s Vulnerabilities: Along with the sheer volume and complexity of global trade, Canada’s vulnerabilities stem from gaps in anti-money laundering regulation, particularly in high-risk sectors like real estate, luxury goods, and legal services, where criminals exploit weak oversight. Global trade exemplifies the vulnerabilities in oversight, where gaps and limited controls create substantial opportunities for money laundering. A lack of comprehensive export controls also limits Canada’s ability to monitor goods leaving the country effectively. Dr. Ferrill notes that “If we’re seen as this weak link in the process, that’s going to have significant implications on trade partnerships,” underscoring the potential political risks to bilateral trade if Canada fails to address these issues.

International and Private Sector Cooperation: Combating TBML effectively requires strong international cooperation, particularly between Canada and key trade partners like the U.S. The private sector—including freight forwarders, customs brokers, and financial institutions—plays a crucial role in spotting suspicious activities along the supply chain. As Dr. Ferrill emphasizes, “Canada and the U.S. can definitely work together more efficiently and effectively to share and then come up with some better strategies,” pointing to the need for increased collaboration to strengthen oversight and disrupt these transnational crime networks.

Looking to further understand the threat of transnational organized crime to Canada’s borders?

Check out Inside Policy Talks recent podcasts with Christian Leuprecht, Todd Hataley  and Alan Bersin.

To learn more about Dr. Ferrill’s research on TBML, check out her chapter in Dirty Money: Financial Crime in Canada.

From the Daily Caller News Foundation 

By Jake Smith

Following President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in the U.S. presidential elections on Tuesday, several leaders from countries around the world offered their responses — some more congratulatory in nature than others.

Trump made a historical comeback from his loss in 2020 and swept the electoral vote by at least a 277-224 margin, while also taking the popular vote by nearly five million votes, according to multiple reports. World leaders were closely watching the election — as Harris’ and Trump’s approach to foreign policy varies widely — and offered compliments on his victory, while other nations typically considered American adversaries seemed to take a more muted and cautionary tone.

“Italy and the United States are ‘sister’ nations, linked by an unshakable alliance, common values, and a historic friendship,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a statement on Wednesday. “It is a strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even further.”

“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday.

“The future of the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance and America will shine brighter. Look forward to working closely with you,” South Korean Prime Minister Toon Suk Yeol said on Wednesday.

Other world leaders that Trump differs from vastly on politics — including Canada and the U.K. — also offered compliments to Trump on his win, even as Trump has publicly criticized their left-wing policies.

“I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday.

Most European Union (EU) nations applauded Trump’s victory, though some countries signaled that Europe needs to be ready to rely more closely on itself. Trump’s “America First” approach has been popular among swaths of the American electorate but has left some European countries nervous that Trump may take a different approach than President Joe Biden’s seemingly no-holds-barred relationship with Europe in recent years.

During his first term, Trump had a sometimes tense relationship with some European countries, as he felt that they contributed to the U.S.’ global trade imbalance and weren’t paying enough to be part of the NATO alliance. Trump on multiple occasions has threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO unless European countries pay their agreed share.

Trump’s threat was successful — a higher number of NATO allies met their defense spending goals at the end of his term than at the beginning.

“The European Union must stand close together and act in a united manner,” Scholz told reporters on Wednesday, noting that he and Macron were working closely with other European partners.

China offered few remarks on Trump’s win, while other adversaries such as Iran and North Korea have yet to publicly comment on the matter, although Tehran has made it clear it does not want another Trump term. Chinese officials have reportedly feared the policies of another Trump term compared to a Harris presidency and actively interfered in this year’s elections.

“We respect the choice of the American people and congratulate Mr. Trump on being elected as president of the United States,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday.

Russia’s message on the election appeared more veiled and hostile. Russian President Vladimir Putin does apparently not plan to offer any congratulations to Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters on Wednesday, arguing that the U.S. is “an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state.”

“We have repeatedly said that the U.S. is able to contribute to the end of this conflict. This cannot be done overnight, but… the U.S. is capable of changing the trajectory of its foreign policy. Will this happen, and if so, how … we will see after (the U.S. president’s inauguration in) January,” Peskov said.

Russia has waged war against Ukraine since 2022 and has dragged the U.S. and Europe deeper and deeper into the conflict. Biden has failed to significantly alter the course of the war; Trump has vowed that he could strike a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine by the time he reaches office in January.

Similarly, Trump has promised that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East — which was borne out of Hamas’ invasion on Oct. 7, 2023 — by the time he takes office in January, warning that he will treat Iran far more harshly than Biden has and will impose sanctions to ensure Tehran cannot build its funding reserves. Trump spoke to Netanyahu in July and reportedly told him that the war in Gaza needs to end by January, potentially in a bid to reestablish some norms between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

On China, Trump has promised fair competition but warned that he will impose stricter tariffs in a bid to balance the trade deficit, encourage Americans to buy more domestic goods and compel China to import more American products.