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Key energy agencies diverge as demand and oil prices climb

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Leaders of the world’s most consequential energy bodies gathered for a forum Wednesday to discuss the uncertain future of oil as demand rebounds and prices climb, all while a growing roster of nations pledge to transition to cleaner forms of energy.

The forum, which included speakers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the International Energy Agency and the International Energy Forum, presented varying forecasts for oil demand and discussed energy security and market stability.

Yet from the outset, the wider debate on how the world should best transition away from so-called dirty fuels and other sources of carbon emissions that pollute the air played out as speakers gave their remarks.

Major oil-producing nations, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have long argued that a rapid energy transition away from the fossil fuels that they continue to rely on for revenue will impact global economic growth and hurt the world’s poorest. Those backing a fast-tracked transition insist new investments in energy must go toward expanding existing wind and solar solutions and in funding innovative solutions if the world is to avoid catastrophic global warming levels. On both sides, however, there is agreement that the world is far from reaching sustainable targets as demand for energy grows.

“We are not on track. So how should policy makers respond to this dilemma? The reality is that 80% of the world’s energy needs continue to be met by fossil fuels,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the Saudi-based International Energy Forum that hosted the symposium. The IEF is the largest organization of energy ministers, with 71 member states, including the United States.

McMonigle said global energy demand has “roared back” to pre-pandemic levels, but that investments in oil and gas are not back to where they were before the COVID-19 crisis.

“Disinvestment in energy supply will not deliver a just and orderly transition and cannot be a response to the climate crisis,” he said, arguing that countries should invest in both greener forms of energy as well as fossil fuels.

The IEF has called for oil and gas investment to reach $525 billion through 2030 to ensure “market balance” despite a slowdown projected in how much demand for oil will grow. The group notes that investment in the oil and gas sector in 2021 stood at $341 billion. Without more financing, the IEF says demand could outstrip future supply within the next five to six years. They say it could also result in switching to more polluting energy sources such as wood and coal.

Others disagree. The International Energy Agency’s executive director has said the world does not need more investments in new oil, gas and coal projects.

From Paris, the IEA’s Fatih Birol did not directly address the comments made by McMonigle, but he echoed the sentiment that the energy transition must happen in an “orderly manner” so that climate targets are met and oil producing economies are seen as part of the solution.

To meet these targets, the world must reduce its consumption of fossil fuels, Birol said, before later adding: “We cannot drop oil and gas tomorrow.”

“The world will need oil and gas for several years to come. However, if we want to reach our climate targets we would need less oil and less coal and less gas than we use today in an unabated format.”

The IEA says that for the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, annual clean energy investment worldwide will need to more than triple by 2030 to around $4 trillion. It has also called out the energy sector as the source of around 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, a main driver in climate change.

The IEA estimates that world oil demand is set to expand by 3.2 million barrels per day this year, reaching 100.6 million barrels per day as restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus ease. Benchmark crude prices rose by more than 15% in January to cross the $90 per barrel threshold for the first time in more than seven years.

The rebound in demand for oil, combined with a shortfall in energy investments, rising prices and market uncertainty has led to varying energy outlook scenarios. The diverging outlooks by OPEC, the IEF, IEA and others have an impact on how governments choose to formulate their energy policies and decide on production levels as they commit to net-zero pledges.

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Follow Aya Batrawy on Twitter at www.twitter.com/ayaelb

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at http://apnews.com/hub/climate

Aya Batrawy, The Associated Press

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Bjorn Lomborg

The stupidity of Net Zero | Bjorn Lomborg on how climate alarmism leads to economic crisis

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From spiked on YouTube

Note: This interview is focused on Europe and the UK.  It very much applies to Canada. The 2025 Federal Election which will see Canadians choose between a more common sense approach, and spending the next 4 years continuing down the path of pursuing “The Stupidity of Net Zero”.

European industry is in freefall, and Net Zero is to blame.

Here, climate economist Bjorn Lomborg – author of Best Things First and False Alarm – explains how panic over climate change is doing far more damage than climate change itself.  Swapping cheap and dependable fossil fuels for unreliable and expensive renewables costs our economies trillions, but for little environmental gain, Lomborg says.

Plus, he tackles the myth of the ‘climate apocalypse’ and explains why there are more polar bears than ever.

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Business

Scott Bessent Says Trump’s Goal Was Always To Get Trading Partners To Table After Major Pause Announcement

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

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Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent told reporters Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s goal was to have major trading partners agree to negotiate after Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for many countries after dozens reached out to the administration.

Trump announced the pause via a Wednesday post on Truth Social that also announced substantial increases in tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, saying 75 countries had asked to talk. Bessent said during a press event held alongside White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt that Trump had obtained “maximum leverage” to get trading partners to negotiate with the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

“This was his strategy all along,” Bessent told reporters during an impromptu press conference at the White House. “And that, you know, you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position. They, they responded. They have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors. And, and we are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate. It wasn’t a hard message: Don’t retaliate, things will turn out well.”

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China imposed retaliatory tariffs on American exports to the communist country Wednesday, imposing an 84% tariff on U.S. goods after Trump responded to a 34% tariff by taking American tariffs to 104%.

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately,” Trump said. “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

“They kept escalating and escalating, and now they have 125% tariffs that will be effective immediately,” Bessent said during the press conference.

Bessent said that China’s actions would not harm the United States as much as it would their own economy.

“We will see what China does,” Bessent said. “But what I am certain of, what I’m certain of, is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours, because they have an export-driven, flood the world with cheap export model, and the rest of the world now understands.”

The Dow Jones Industrial average closed up 2,962.86 points Wednesday, with the NASDAQ climbing by 1,755.84 points and the S&P 500 rising 446.05 points, according to FoxBusiness.

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