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In Taiwan’s election, voters refused to give in to Beijing’s relentless pressure

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From the MacDonald Laurier Institute

By J. Michael Cole

Beijing will no doubt regard the results of Saturday’s elections as a further affront to its nationalistic pride.

Amid unprecedented attention from the international community and rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the people of Taiwan headed to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president and legislature. After months of intense campaigning and intimidation by China, Taiwanese voters elected to give the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a third four-year term – the first time in the island nation’s democratic history that a party has remained in power for more than two consecutive terms.

Despite Beijing’s warning that a vote for the DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te, constituted a vote for “war,” the Taiwanese electorate chose continuity, with Mr. Lai vowing to continue the policies of President Tsai Ing-wen, who successfully navigated a difficult geopolitical environment over the past eight years. (Ms. Tsai will step down on May 20 after reaching her two-term limit.)

Wary of the Taiwan-centric DPP, Beijing has been relentless in its attempts to coerce Taiwan, both militarily and economically, and to isolate it from the international community while using various incentives to foster support for unification with the People’s Republic of China. Those efforts have been largely unsuccessful, and eight years on, Taiwan is arguably much more connected with the international community than it was under more Beijing-friendly governments.

Beijing will no doubt regard the results of Saturday’s elections as a further affront to its nationalistic pride, and we can therefore expect an intensification of its punitive measures at the economic and diplomatic level, as well as an intensification of its already highly destabilizing military activity around Taiwan. In response, the Lai administration will continue to strive to diversify its export destinations to further reduce its economic dependence in China, and, as one of the most vibrant democracies in the region, will remain an important partner to the U.S.-led community of democracies as it pushes back against resurgent authoritarianism. Under Ms. Tsai, Taiwan has played an important role as an example and promoter of liberal democracy, both within the region and abroad. Its government and vibrant civil society have expanded their footprint abroad, often helping other democracies, such as Canada, learn how to better balance their relationship with China so that trade and engagement does not come at the cost of corroded values and institutions.

While many domestic factors also weighed into who the Taiwanese decided to vote for in Saturday’s election, in which the DPP also lost its majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, their vote for Mr. Lai signalled a desire for Taiwan to continue to play a larger role on the international stage. While potentially reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait for some time, a victory by his two opponents would nevertheless have come at the cost of retrenchment on the international stage and greater focus on Taiwan’s relations with – and concessions to – China.

Still, despite ongoing efforts to modernize its military and develop a defence posture that is better suited to meet the challenge posed by the Chinese military, Taiwan’s ability to deter an invasion by the much more powerful People’s Liberation Army remains contingent on a U.S. commitment to its defence, as well as pressure from other countries making it clear to Beijing that any attempt to annex Taiwan by force and against the wishes of its 23.5 million people would come at an unacceptable cost.

Potential distractions caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the risks of a regional conflagration in the Middle East, an unpredictable North Korea and political instability in the U.S. could undermine American efforts to assist Taiwan and therefore embolden Beijing. The DPP’s loss of its majority in parliament could also complicate the new administration’s ability to secure the budgets it needs to fund defence modernization and foreign policy initiatives, which Beijing will no doubt seek to exploit.

There is every reason to believe that a Lai administration will build upon and continue to expand the course set by his predecessor. In the last eight years, Taiwan shone on the international stage, and consolidated its place as both a bastion of liberal-democratic values and an economic powerhouse whose technological prowess in fields such as semiconductors have positioned the country as an indispensable component of the global supply chain. And yet, this success story continues to be threatened by an authoritarian neighbour that rejects the reality that, whoever they vote for, the people of Taiwan categorically refuse to be ruled by Beijing. They cherish the freedom, democracy and way of life they have built over decades of arduous work. And they want their rightful place on the international stage.

J. Michael Cole is a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa and a senior adviser on countering foreign authoritarian influence with the International Republican Institute. He is also a former analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

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Daily Caller

Former FBI Asst Director Warns Terrorists Are ‘Well Embedded’ In US, Says Alert Should Be ‘Higher’

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Chris Swecker on “Anderson Cooper 360” discussing terror threat

 

From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By Hailey Gomez

Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker warned Friday on CNN that terrorists are “well embedded” within the United States, stating the threat level should be “higher” following an attack in Germany.

A 50-year-old Saudi doctor allegedly drove his car into a crowded Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany on Friday leaving at least two people dead and nearly 70 injured so far. On “Anderson Cooper 360,” Swecker was asked if he believes there is a potential “threat” to the U.S. as concerns have risen since the “fall of Afghanistan.” 

“I think so,” Swecker said. “I mean, we’ve heard FBI Director Chris Wray talk about this in conjunction with the relative ease of getting across the southern border. And, you know, there’s no question that terrorists have come across that border, whether they’re lone terrorists or terrorist cells. And they’re well embedded inside this country.”

WATCH:

“I’ve worked terrorist cases. Hezbollah has always had a presence here. They raise funds here, and they can always be called into action as an active terrorist cell,” Swecker added. “So I think the alert here, especially around Christmas time, is elevated. It probably ought to be higher than what it is right now, because I mentioned that complacency earlier. And I fear that complacency as someone who has a background in this field.”

Concerns over the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the U.S. southern border have raised questions over the vetting process of illegal immigrants entering the country.

On Tuesday United States Border Patrol (USPB) Chief Jason Owens announced in a social post that an unidentified South African national who was “suspected of terror”  was arrested in Brooklyn, N.Y. The illegal immigrant had originally been detained in Texas for criminal trespassing but was released due to the “information available at the time.”

In August an estimated 99 individuals on the U.S. terrorist watch list had been released into the country after crossing through the southern border, according to a congressional report. The report found that between fiscal years 2021 and 2023 USBP agents encountered more than 250 illegal migrants on the terrorist watchlist, with nearly 100 of those individuals being later released into the U.S. by the Department of Homeland Security.

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Alberta

Ford and Trudeau are playing checkers. Trump and Smith are playing chess

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CAE Logo

 

By Dan McTeague

 

Ford’s calls for national unity – “We need to stand united as Canadians!” – in context feels like an endorsement of fellow Electric Vehicle fanatic Trudeau. And you do wonder if that issue has something to do with it. After all, the two have worked together to pump billions in taxpayer dollars into the EV industry.

There’s no doubt about it: Donald Trump’s threat of a blanket 25% tariff on Canadian goods (to be established if the Canadian government fails to take sufficient action to combat drug trafficking and illegal crossings over our southern border) would be catastrophic for our nation’s economy. More than $3 billion in goods move between the U.S. and Canada on a daily basis. If enacted, the Trump tariff would likely result in a full-blown recession.

It falls upon Canada’s leaders to prevent that from happening. That’s why Justin Trudeau flew to Florida two weeks ago to point out to the president-elect that the trade relationship between our countries is mutually beneficial.

This is true, but Trudeau isn’t the best person to make that case to Trump, since he has been trashing the once and future president, and his supporters, both in public and private, for years. He did so again at an appearance just the other day, in which he implied that American voters were sexist for once again failing to elect the nation’s first female president, and said that Trump’s election amounted to an assault on women’s rights.

Consequently, the meeting with Trump didn’t go well.

But Trudeau isn’t Canada’s only politician, and in recent days we’ve seen some contrasting approaches to this serious matter from our provincial leaders.

First up was Doug Ford, who followed up a phone call with Trudeau earlier this week by saying that Canadians have to prepare for a trade war. “Folks, this is coming, it’s not ‘if,’ it is — it’s coming… and we need to be prepared.”

Ford said that he’s working with Liberal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to put together a retaliatory tariff list. Spokesmen for his government floated the idea of banning the LCBO from buying American alcohol, and restricting the export of critical minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries (I’m sure Trump is terrified about that last one).

But Ford’s most dramatic threat was his announcement that Ontario is prepared to shut down energy exports to the U.S., specifically to Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, if Trump follows through with his plan. “We’re sending a message to the U.S. You come and attack Ontario, you attack the livelihoods of Ontario and Canadians, we’re going to use every tool in our toolbox to defend Ontarians and Canadians across the border,” Ford said.

Now, unfortunately, all of this chest-thumping rings hollow. Ontario does almost $500 billion per year in trade with the U.S., and the province’s supply chains are highly integrated with America’s. The idea of just cutting off the power, as if you could just flip a switch, is actually impossible. It’s a bluff, and Trump has already called him on it. When told about Ford’s threat by a reporter this week, Trump replied “That’s okay if he does that. That’s fine.”

And Ford’s calls for national unity – “We need to stand united as Canadians!” – in context feels like an endorsement of fellow Electric Vehicle fanatic Trudeau. And you do wonder if that issue has something to do with it. After all, the two have worked together to pump billions in taxpayer dollars into the EV industry. Just over the past year Ford and Trudeau have been seen side by side announcing their $5 billion commitment to Honda, or their $28.2 billion in subsidies for new Stellantis and Volkswagen electric vehicle battery plants.

Their assumption was that the U.S. would be a major market for Canadian EVs. Remember that “vehicles are the second largest Canadian export by value, at $51 billion in 2023 of which 93% was exported to the U.S.,”according to the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, and “Auto is Ontario’s top export at 28.9% of all exports (2023).”

But Trump ran on abolishing the Biden administration’s de facto EV mandate. Now that he’s back in the White House, the market for those EVs that Trudeau and Ford invested in so heavily is going to be much softer. Perhaps they’d like to be able to blame Trump’s tariffs for the coming downturn rather than their own misjudgment.

In any event, Ford’s tactic stands in stark contrast to the response from Alberta, Canada’s true energy superpower. Premier Danielle Smith made it clear that her province “will not support cutting off our Alberta energy exports to the U.S., nor will we support a tariff war with our largest trading partner and closest ally.”

Smith spoke about this topic at length at an event announcing a new $29-million border patrol team charged with combatting drug trafficking, at which said that Trudeau’s criticisms of the president-elect were, “not helpful.” Her deputy premier Mike Ellis was quoted as saying, “The concerns that president-elect Trump has expressed regarding fentanyl are, quite frankly, the same concerns that I and the premier have had.” Smith and Ellis also criticized Ottawa’s progressively lenient approach to drug crimes.

(For what it’s worth, a recent Léger poll found that “Just 29 per cent of [Canadians] believe Trump’s concerns about illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Canada to the U.S. are unwarranted.” Perhaps that’s why some recent polls have found that Trudeau is currently less popular in Canada than Trump at the moment.)

Smith said that Trudeau’s criticisms of the president-elect were, “not helpful.” And on X/Twitter she said, “Now is the time to… reach out to our friends and allies in the U.S. to remind them just how much Americans and Canadians mutually benefit from our trade relationship – and what we can do to grow that partnership further,” adding, “Tariffs just hurt Americans and Canadians on both sides of the border. Let’s make sure they don’t happen.”

This is exactly the right approach. Smith knows there is a lot at stake in this fight, and is not willing to step into the ring in a fight that Canada simply can’t win, and will cause a great deal of hardship for all involved along the way.

While Trudeau indulges in virtue signaling and Ford in sabre rattling, Danielle Smith is engaging in true statesmanship. That’s something that is in short supply in our country these days.

As I’ve written before, Trump is playing chess while Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford are playing checkers. They should take note of Smith’s strategy. Honey will attract more than vinegar, and if the long history of our two countries tell us anything, it’s that diplomacy is more effective than idle threats.

Dan McTeague is President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

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