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Ignore Ottawa’s talking points—Canada is a highly indebted country

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss

Canada falls 21 positions in international rankings after switching from net debt to gross debt, the largest change by far of any country.

The Trudeau government has claimed that Canada “continues to have an enviable fiscal and debt position relative to international peers” because we have the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7. But this is misleading. In reality, Canada is actually a highly indebted country relative to our international peers.

The government’s claim originates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which notes that Canada has the lowest level of net debt (as a share of its economy) among G7 countries including Germany, Italy, Japan, France, the United Kingdom and the United States. But this specific measure of debt subtracts financial assets from total government debt.

Here’s why that’s a problem.

Again, when calculating net debt, you subtract financial assets because you assume those assets could be used to offset debt. The glaring problem here is that Canada’s financial assets include the assets of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Quebec Pension Plan (QPP), which substantially reduce Canada’s net debt. Indeed, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada, there were net assets of $716.7 billion in the combined CPP and QPP as of Dec. 31, 2023.

But the assets of the CPP and QPP are used for payments to existing and future retirees and can’t be used to offset government debt without compromising the ability of the CPP and QPP to provide benefits to retirees. So, Canada having the lowest net debt-to-GDP in the G7 doesn’t mean much when CPP and QPP assets are incorrectly used to make us look less indebted than we actually are.

Thankfully, there’s a much more accurate way to measure of Canada’s indebtedness—gross debt-to-GDP. Gross debt, according to the IMF, includes all “liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor.” And extending the analysis to include a broader group of advanced countries provides a more accurate assessment of Canada’s comparative indebtedness.

According to a new study, among 32 industrialized countries, Canada slides from the 5th-lowest debt ranking when net debt is measured to 26th when gross debt is used. Further, Canada’s gross debt exceeds the total size of the national economy by nearly 5 percentage points. In other words, Canada falls 21 positions in international rankings after switching from net debt to gross debt, the largest change by far of any country.

The consequences of fiscal imprudence are clear. Just like households, governments must pay interest on debt. In 2024, Canada’s federal debt interest costs are expected to eclipse $54.0 billion—equal to the entire amount of revenue the government collects from the Goods and Services Tax (GST). And debt must be repaid by future generations of Canadians through tax increases or reduction in services.

When the Trudeau government claims that Canada is in an enviable position relative to our peers on government indebtedness, it is misleading Canadians. The data clearly show that Canada is among the most indebted advanced economies in the world. That’s not something to boast about.

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CBC’s business model is trapped in a very dark place

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The Audit

 

 David Clinton

I Testified Before a Senate Committee About the CBC

I recently testified before the Senate Committee for Transport and Communications. You can view that session here. Even though the official topic was CBC’s local programming in Ontario, everyone quickly shifted the discussion to CBC’s big-picture problems and how their existential struggles were urgent and immediate. The idea that deep and fundamental changes within the corporation were unavoidable seemed to enjoy complete agreement.

I’ll use this post as background to some of the points I raised during the hearing.

You might recall how my recent post on CBC funding described a corporation shedding audience share like dandruff while spending hundreds of millions of dollars producing drama and comedy programming few Canadians consume. There are so few viewers left that I suspect they’re now identified by first name rather than as a percentage of the population.

Since then I’ve learned a lot more about CBC performance and about the broadcast industry in general.

For instance, it’ll surprise exactly no one to learn that fewer Canadians get their audio from traditional radio broadcasters. But how steep is the decline? According to the CRTC’s Annual Highlights of the Broadcasting Sector 2022-2023, since 2015, “hours spent listening to traditional broadcasting has decreased at a CAGR of 4.8 percent”. CAGR, by the way, stands for compound annual growth rate.

Dropping 4.8 percent each year means audience numbers aren’t just “falling”; they’re not even “falling off the edge of a cliff”; they’re already close enough to the bottom of the cliff to smell the trees. Looking for context? Between English and French-language radio, the CBC spends around $240 million each year.

Those listeners aren’t just disappearing without a trace. the CRTC also tells us that Canadians are increasingly migrating to Digital Media Broadcasting Units (DMBUs) – with numbers growing by more than nine percent annually since 2015.

The CBC’s problem here is that they’re not a serious player in the DMBU world, so they’re simply losing digital listeners. For example, of the top 200 Spotify podcasts ranked by popularity in Canada, only four are from the CBC.

Another interesting data point I ran into related to that billion dollar plus annual parliamentary allocation CBC enjoys. It turns out that that’s not the whole story. You may recall how the government added another $42 million in their most recent budget.

But wait! That’s not all! Between CBC and SRC, the Canada Media Fund (CMF) ponied up another $97 million for fiscal 2023-2024 to cover specific programming production budgets.

Technically, Canada Media Fund grants target individual projects planned by independent production companies. But those projects are usually associated with the “envelope” of one of the big broadcasters – of which CBC is by far the largest. 2023-2024 CMF funding totaled $786 million, and CBC’s take was nearly double that of their nearest competitor (Bell).

But there’s more! Back in 2016, the federal budget included an extra $150 million each year as a “new investment in Canadian arts and culture”. It’s entirely possible that no one turned off the tap and that extra government cheque is still showing up each year in the CBC’s mailbox. There was also a $93 million item for infrastructure and technological upgrades back in the 2017-2018 fiscal year. Who knows whether that one wasn’t also carried over.

So CBC’s share of government funding keeps growing while its share of Canadian media consumers shrinks. How do you suppose that’ll end?

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PBO report shows cost of bureaucracy up 73 per cent under Trudeau

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

By Franco Terrazzano

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on the federal government to rein in the bureaucracy following today’s Parliamentary Budget Officer report showing the bureaucracy costs taxpayers $69.5 billion.

“The cost of the federal bureaucracy increased by 73 per cent since 2016, but it’s a good bet most Canadians aren’t seeing anywhere close to 73 per cent better services from the government,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Taxpayers are getting soaked because the size and cost of the federal bureaucracy is out of control.”

Today’s PBO report estimates the federal bureaucracy cost taxpayers $69.5 billion in 2023-24. In 2016-17, the cost of the bureaucracy was $40.2 billion. That’s an increase of 72.9 per cent.

The most recent data shows the cost continues to rise quickly.

“Spending on personnel in the first five months of 2024-25 is up 8.0 per cent over the same period last year,” according to the PBO.

“I have noticed a marked increase in the number of public servants since 2016 and a proportional increase in spending,” said Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux. “But we haven’t seen similar improvements when it comes to service.”

The Trudeau government added 108,793 bureaucrats since 2016 – a 42 per cent increase. Canada’s population grew by 14 per cent during the same period. Had the bureaucracy only increased with population growth, there would be 72,491 fewer federal employees today.

The government awarded more than one million pay raises to bureaucrats in the last four years, according to access-to-information records obtained by the CTF. The government also rubberstamped $406 million in bonuses last year.

“The government added tens of thousands of extra bureaucrats, rubberstamped hundreds of millions in bonuses and awarded more than one million pay raises and all taxpayers seem to get out of it is higher taxes and more debt,” Terrazzano said. “For the government to balance the budget and provide tax relief, it will need to cut the size and cost of Ottawa’s bloated bureaucracy.”

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