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Automotive
Electric vehicle sales mandates doomed to fail
From the Fraser Institute
By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari
Nearly 30 per cent of EV owners worldwide intend to switch back to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
According to new data released this week, electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe plummeted by 36 per cent in Europe including a 69 per cent drop in Germany, the continent’s largest auto market. And according to a recent survey by McKinsey & Company, nearly 30 per cent of EV owners worldwide intend to switch back to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Clearly, in light of growing consumer hesitation and a global slowdown in EV sales, the ambitious timelines set by governments for the EV transition are increasingly at odds with market realities.
In Canada, the Trudeau government has mandated that all new passenger vehicles and light trucks must be zero-emission by 2035, with interim targets of 20 per cent by 2026 and 60 per cent by 2030. But only 8.1 per cent (139,521) of the 1.7 million new vehicles sold in Canada in 2023 were electric, according to Statistics Canada. And it takes an average of 55 days to sell an EV in Canada—33 days longer than in 2023 and four days more than a gasoline-powered car. To achieve the Trudeau government’s 2026 target, EV sales would need to more than double in just two years and increase more than sevenfold by 2030 (assuming no change in total vehicle sales). Such rapid growth within a short timeframe is questionable at best.
It’s a similar story in the United States where the Biden administration has mandated that nearly 60 per cent of new vehicles sold must be electric by 2032 even though demand in 2024 has been lighter than expected and nearly half of American EV owners say they’re likely to switch back to ICEs. In Europe, the United Kingdom and the European Union plan to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2035 yet, as previously noted, EV sales are plummeting.
Some automakers have already responded to the realities of the EV market. In April, Tesla laid off 10 per cent of its global workforce. Ford announced it will cancel the production of an electric SUV, delay the production of an electric pickup truck, and postpone the start of EV production at its Oakville, Ontario plant by two years. General Motors abandoned its goal of producing 400,000 EVs by mid-2024 due to lower-than-expected sales and revealed in August it would delay the start of production at its battery plant in Indiana by about one year, pushing the timeline to 2027.
The EV transition also faces another major hurdle—a shortage of minerals for EV batteries that can only be addressed by opening a massive number of new mines in record time. According to a 2023 study, to meet international EV adoption mandates by 2030, the world would need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines, 17 new cobalt mines, 50 new mines for cathode production, 40 new mines for anode materials, 90 new mines for minerals needed to produce battery cells, and 81 new mines for the body and motors of the EVs themselves, for a total of 388 new mines worldwide. For context, in 2021 there were only 340 metal mines operating in Canada and the U.S. combined.
Identifying, planning and constructing a mine is a slow process. For instance, lithium production timelines range from six to nine years and for nickel 13 to 18 years—both of these elements remain critical for EV batteries. Clearly, today’s aggressive government timelines for EV adoption clash with the realities of mineral mining.
The facts are undeniable. Governments can’t dictate consumer choices via mandate. The fantastic EV adoption timelines of the Trudeau government and other governments in the western world are increasingly out of touch with the realities of production and market demand. These governments have overestimated their ability to shape the auto industry, which is why EV mandates will fail.
Authors:
Agriculture
Trump Floats Massive Tariffs On John Deere If Manufacturing Shifts To Mexico
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
Former President Donald Trump issued a warning Monday about imposing 200% tariffs on John Deere products if the company relocates its manufacturing operations to Mexico.
Trump engaged with local farmers and manufacturers during an event in Smithton, Pennsylvania, about the impact of China’s economic policies on the U.S. economy, according to the Associated Press. The former president highlighted his economic strategy against Vice President Kamala Harris by pointing out the potential benefits of tariffs and increased energy production, which he argued could help lower costs and protect local industries.
Trump highlighted John Deere’s recent decision to move some manufacturing to Mexico, and he threatened a 200% tariff on the company should it proceed with its plans under his potential administration, the AP reported.
JUST IN: Donald Trump points at the tractors behind him, tells John Deere that if they move their business to Mexico he is going to put a 200% tariff on them.
🔥🔥🔥
The comments came while Trump was speaking to farmers in Pennsylvania.
“I will tell you that I just noticed… pic.twitter.com/5wpEAuTEo4
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 23, 2024
“I just noticed behind me John Deere tractors, I know a lot about John Deere. I love the company, but as you know, they announced a few days ago that they’re gonna move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico,” Trump said, according to a video posted on X. “I’m just notifying John Deere right now. If you do that, we’re putting a 200% tariff on everything that you wanna sell into the United States. So that if I win, John Deere is gonna be paying 200%.”
John Deere previously announced that it will lay off roughly 610 employees across three of its plants in Illinois and Iowa. The company announced on May 31 that it will relocate skid steer and compact track loader production from Dubuque, Iowa, to Mexico by the end of 2026 as part of a broader strategy to enhance efficiency and manage rising manufacturing costs amidst changing business conditions.
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