Alberta
Here’s why the rest of Canada doesn’t want Alberta to leave the CPP
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill Associate Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute
Provincial and territorial finance ministers recently met with federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to discuss a hot topic—Alberta’s potential withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). According to Nova Scotia Finance Minister Allan MacMaster, “there was real consensus” from his peers that they want Alberta to stay in the CPP. This is unsurprising; while an Alberta pension plan would benefit Albertans, it would come at great cost to the rest of Canada.
Why might Albertans want to leave the CPP?
Albertans pay a basic CPP contribution rate of 9.9 per cent, typically deducted from their paycheques. According to a report commissioned by the Smith government, that rate would fall to 5.91 per cent for a new CPP-like provincial program for Albertans, which means each Albertan would save up to $2,850 in 2027 (the first year of the hypothetical Alberta plan) while maintaining the same retirement benefits. In sharp contrast, to keep the CPP afloat without Alberta, the basic contribution rate for the rest of Canada would increase to 10.36 per cent. In other words, smaller paycheques for the rest of Canada.
The report’s calculation is based on several assumptions, which some analysts have criticized, arguing that Alberta’s estimated share of CPP assets—$334 billion—is not fair or realistic. To be clear, this share (equal to 53 per cent of the CPP) is based on specific legislation that governs the withdrawal of any province from the CPP. But, even if the share of assets to Alberta were much lower, the province would benefit from reduced contribution rates with an Alberta pension plan.
For instance, if Alberta left the CPP and received merely 25 per cent of the CPP’s assets in 2025 ($150 billion), the contribution rate in Alberta would fall from 9.9 per cent to 7.8 per cent, which would mean $1,086 in savings annually per Albertan. Meanwhile, the contribution rate for the rest of Canada would have to increase. If you dropped Alberta’s share to 20 per cent ($120 billion in 2025), Alberta’s contribution rate would fall to 8.2 per cent, equivalent to approximately $836 in savings annually per Albertan.
Put differently, even if Alberta’s share of assets were less than half the report’s estimate, Albertans would benefit from lower contribution rates for the exact same benefits while the rest of Canada may pay higher contributions to maintain current benefits. Why does Alberta mean so much to the CPP? Because Alberta generally has higher employment rates and a comparatively younger population, which means more workers pay into the fund and less retirees take from it. Albertans also have higher average incomes, which means there’s a higher level of premiums paid into the fund. As such, Albertans have paid significantly more into the CPP than its retirees have received in return.
It’s not surprising that the rest of Canada doesn’t want Alberta to leave the CPP for an equivalent provincial plan because—even if Alberta’s share is less than $334 billion, Alberta’s withdrawal would come with big costs for other Canadians across the country.
Author:
Alberta
READ IT HERE – Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding – From the Prime Minister’s Office
Alberta
Falling resource revenue fuels Alberta government’s red ink
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to this week’s fiscal update, amid falling oil prices, the Alberta government will run a projected $6.4 billion budget deficit in 2025/26—higher than the $5.2 billion deficit projected earlier this year and a massive swing from the $8.3 billion surplus recorded in 2024/25.
Overall, that’s a $14.8 billion deterioration in Alberta’s budgetary balance year over year. Resource revenue, including oil and gas royalties, comprises 44.5 per cent of that decline, falling by a projected $6.6 billion.
Albertans shouldn’t be surprised—the good times never last forever. It’s all part of the boom-and-bust cycle where the Alberta government enjoys budget surpluses when resource revenue is high, but inevitably falls back into deficits when resource revenue declines. Indeed, if resource revenue was at the same level as last year, Alberta’s budget would be balanced.
Instead, the Alberta government will return to a period of debt accumulation with projected net debt (total debt minus financial assets) reaching $42.0 billion this fiscal year. That comes with real costs for Albertans in the form of high debt interest payments ($3.0 billion) and potentially higher taxes in the future. That’s why Albertans need a new path forward. The key? Saving during good times to prepare for the bad.
The Smith government has made some strides in this direction by saving a share of budget surpluses, recorded over the last few years, in the Heritage Fund (Alberta’s long-term savings fund). But long-term savings is different than a designated rainy-day account to deal with short-term volatility.
Here’s how it’d work. The provincial government should determine a stable amount of resource revenue to be included in the budget annually. Any resource revenue above that amount would be automatically deposited in the rainy-day account to be withdrawn to support the budget (i.e. maintain that stable amount) in years when resource revenue falls below that set amount.
It wouldn’t be Alberta’s first rainy-day account. Back in 2003, the province established the Alberta Sustainability Fund (ASF), which was intended to operate this way. Unfortunately, it was based in statutory law, which meant the Alberta government could unilaterally change the rules governing the fund. Consequently, by 2007 nearly all resource revenue was used for annual spending. The rainy-day account was eventually drained and eliminated entirely in 2013. This time, the government should make the fund’s rules constitutional, which would make them much more difficult to change or ignore in the future.
According to this week’s fiscal update, the Alberta government’s resource revenue rollercoaster has turned from boom to bust. A rainy-day account would improve predictability and stability in the future by mitigating the impact of volatile resource revenue on the budget.
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