Alberta
Here are the people who will set the tone for Alberta’s financial future
Premier Kenney and Finance Minister Travis Toews with members of Alberta’s Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances.
From The Province of Alberta
Blue Ribbon Panel to assess Alberta’s finances
The Alberta government has appointed an independent panel of experts as a key first step in getting the province’s budget back to balance.
The Blue Ribbon Panel on Alberta’s Finances has been directed to do a deep dive into Alberta’s finances and economy. The focus will be on identifying areas to eliminate waste, duplication and non-essential spending to create the space to fund government’s key priorities.
“Albertans elected a government committed to getting our fiscal house in order, and reversing the province’s dive into debt. This exceptional panel will offer great experience and expertise to give us an honest read of the province’s finances, and a road map for fiscal responsibility.”
The panel will provide advice in a number of areas to get government’s budget back on track, including on:
- Government’s fiscal outlook and department and agency expenditure trends and cost drivers.
- A plan to balance the budget by 2022-23 without raising taxes, and a new fiscal framework that includes requirements for future balanced budgets and a plan to retire the province’s accumulated debt.
- Government’s budgeting, fiscal planning and public reporting processes and systems for operating and capital.
- The business investment climate in Canada and its impact on the Alberta economy.
“By identifying inefficiencies in Alberta’s current fiscal situation, we can begin making plans to bring balance to the province’s finances. We will do this while remaining committed to ensuring the future of high-quality, frontline services for Albertans.”
The Blue Ribbon Panel members:
Janice MacKinnon, chair: MacKinnon is chair of the board of Investment Saskatchewan, chair of the board of directors of the Institute for Research on Public Policy and a former finance minister with the Government of Saskatchewan.
Mike Percy, vice-chair – Percy was previously an Alberta MLA and former Stanley A. Milner professor and dean of the Alberta School of Business at the University of Alberta. Percy was also the chief of staff to Premier Jim Prentice.
Kim Henderson, member – Henderson is a principal at Sproat Advising. Her previous roles include deputy minister to the Premier, cabinet secretary and head of the Public Service, Province of British Columbia and deputy minister of finance with the Province of British Columbia.
Bev Dahlby, member – Dhalby is a Distinguished Fellow and research director, School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.
Dave Mowat, member – Mowat is the former president and CEO, ATB Financial.
Jay Ramotar, member – Ramotar has held many deputy minister postings with the Alberta Public Service, including Service Alberta, Solicitor General and Public Security, Health and Wellness, Infrastructure and Transportation and Treasury Board.
Premier Danielle Smith issued the following statement on the April 2, 2025 U.S. tariff announcement:
“Today was an important win for Canada and Alberta, as it appears the United States has decided to uphold the majority of the free trade agreement (CUSMA) between our two nations. It also appears this will continue to be the case until after the Canadian federal election has concluded and the newly elected Canadian government is able to renegotiate CUSMA with the U.S. administration.
“This is precisely what I have been advocating for from the U.S. administration for months.
“It means that the majority of goods sold into the United States from Canada will have no tariffs applied to them, including zero per cent tariffs on energy, minerals, agricultural products, uranium, seafood, potash and host of other Canadian goods.
“There is still work to be done, of course. Unfortunately, tariffs previously announced by the United States on Canadian automobiles, steel and aluminum have not been removed. The efforts of premiers and the federal government should therefore shift towards removing or significantly reducing these remaining tariffs as we go forward and ensuring affected workers across Canada are generously supported until the situation is resolved.
“I again call on all involved in our national advocacy efforts to focus on diplomacy and persuasion while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Clearly, this strategy has been the most effective to this point.
“As it appears the worst of this tariff dispute is behind us (though there is still work to be done), it is my sincere hope that we, as Canadians, can abandon the disastrous policies that have made Canada vulnerable to and overly dependent on the United States, fast-track national resource corridors, get out of the way of provincial resource development and turn our country into an independent economic juggernaut and energy superpower.”
From the Fraser Institute
By any measure, Alberta is an energy powerhouse—within Canada, but also on a global scale. In 2023, it produced 85 per cent of Canada’s oil and three-fifths of the country’s natural gas. Most of Canada’s oil reserves are in Alberta, along with a majority of natural gas reserves. Alberta is the beating heart of the Canadian energy economy. And energy, in turn, accounts for one-quarter of Canada’s international exports.
Consider some key facts about the province’s energy landscape, as noted in the Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER) 2023 annual report. Oil and natural gas production continued to rise (on a volume basis) in 2023, on the heels of steady increases over the preceding half decade. However, the dollar value of Alberta’s oil and gas production fell in 2023, as the surging prices recorded in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine retreated. Capital spending in the province’s energy sector reached $30 billion in 2023, making it the leading driver of private-sector investment. And completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project has opened new offshore export avenues for Canada’s oil industry and should boost Alberta’s energy production and exports going forward.
In a world striving to address climate change, Alberta’s hydrocarbon-heavy energy sector faces challenges. At some point, the world may start to consume less oil and, later, less natural gas (in absolute terms). But such “peak” consumption hasn’t arrived yet, nor does it appear imminent. While the demand for certain refined petroleum products is trending down in some advanced economies, particularly in Europe, we should take a broader global perspective when assessing energy demand and supply trends.
Looking at the worldwide picture, Goldman Sachs’ 2024 global energy forecast predicts that “oil usage will increase through 2034” thanks to strong demand in emerging markets and growing production of petrochemicals that depend on oil as the principal feedstock. Global demand for natural gas (including LNG) will also continue to increase, particularly since natural gas is the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel and more of it is being traded in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for Alberta’s energy sector, particularly if the federal government dials back some of the economically destructive energy and climate policies adopted by the last government. According to the AER’s “base case” forecast, overall energy output will expand over the next 10 years. Oilsands output is projected to grow modestly; natural gas production will also rise, in part due to greater demand for Alberta’s upstream gas from LNG operators in British Columbia.
The AER’s forecast also points to a positive trajectory for capital spending across the province’s energy sector. The agency sees annual investment rising from almost $30 billion to $40 billion by 2033. Most of this takes place in the oil and gas industry, but “emerging” energy resources and projects aimed at climate mitigation are expected to represent a bigger slice of energy-related capital spending going forward.
Like many other oil and gas producing jurisdictions, Alberta must navigate the bumpy journey to a lower-carbon future. But the world is set to remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come. This suggests the energy sector will continue to underpin not only the Alberta economy but also Canada’s export portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Jock Finlayson
Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute
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