Energy
Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome
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From the Fraser Institute
By Vaclav Smil
The global goal to achieve “net-zero” carbon emissions by 2050 is impractical and unrealistic, finds a new study published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.
“The plan to eliminate fossil fuels and achieve a net-zero economy faces formidable economic, political and practical challenges,” said Vaclav Smil, professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and author of Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome.
Canada is now also committed to this goal. In 2021, the federal government passed legislation mandating that the country will achieve “net-zero” emissions—that is, will either emit no greenhouse gas emissions or offset its emissions through other activities (e.g. tree planting)—by 2050.
Yet, despite international agreements and significant spending and regulations by governments worldwide, global dependence on fossil fuels has steadily increased over the past three decades. By 2023, global fossil fuel consumption was 55 per cent higher than in 1997 (when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted). And the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only slightly decreased, dropping from 86 per cent in 1997 to 82 per cent in 2022 (the latest year of complete production data).
Widespread adoption of electric vehicles—also a key component of Ottawa’s net-zero plan—by 2040 will require more than 40 times more lithium and up to 25 times more cobalt, nickel and graphite worldwide (compared to 2020 levels). There are serious questions about the ability to achieve such increases in mineral and metal production.
Although the eventual cost of global decarbonization cannot be reliably quantified, achieving zero carbon by 2050 would require spending substantially higher than for any previous long-term peacetime commitments. Moreover, high-income countries (including Canada) are also expected to finance new energy infrastructure in low-income economies, further raising their decarbonization burdens.
Finally, achieving net-zero requires extensive and sustained global cooperation among countries—including China and India—that have varied levels of commitment to decarbonization.
“Policymakers must face reality—while ending our reliance on fossil fuels may be a desirable long-term goal, it cannot be accomplished quickly or inexpensively,” said Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute.
Summary
- This essay evaluates past carbon emission reduction and the feasibility of eliminating fossil fuels to achieve net-zero carbon by 2050.
- Despite international agreements, government spending and regulations, and technological advancements, global fossil fuel consumption surged by 55 percent between 1997 and 2023. And the share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption has only decreased from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to approximately 82 percent in 2022.
- The first global energy transition, from traditional biomass fuels such as wood and charcoal to fossil fuels, started more than two centuries ago and unfolded gradually. That transition remains incomplete, as billions of people still rely on traditional biomass energies for cooking and heating.
- The scale of today’s energy transition requires approximately 700 exajoules of new non-carbon energies by 2050, which needs about 38,000 projects the size of BC’s Site C or 39,000 equivalents of Muskrat Falls.
- Converting energy-intensive processes (e.g., iron smelting, cement, and plastics) to non-fossil alternatives requires solutions not yet available for largescale use.
- The energy transition imposes unprecedented demands for minerals including copper and lithium, which require substantial time to locate and develop mines.
- To achieve net-zero carbon, affluent countries will incur costs of at least 20 percent of their annual GDP.
- While global cooperation is essential to achieve decarbonization by 2050, major emitters such as the United States, China, and Russia have conflicting interests.
- To eliminate carbon emissions by 2050, governments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.
Author:
Daily Caller
Trump’s Energy Secretary Issues Dire Warning To Globalists About Green Energy Lunacy
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From the Daily Caller News Foundation
By David Blackmon
During a 12-minute video appearance at the 2025 Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) Conference held in London, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told the audience that “Net zero by 2050 “is a sinister goal.”
That is a bold statement, especially given that it was delivered to an audience sitting in the United Kingdom, where both major political parties that have traditionally governed the country – the Conservative “Tories” and the far-left Labour Party – have spent the past decade pushing their country to meet its net zero goals as if it were a matter of religious faith. Regardless of the obvious negative economic and social consequences that have been heaped upon UK citizens, and equally obvious futility of the entire effort, leaders of both parties have kept the country on this ruinous path.
As Wright went on to point out, net zero by 2050 is “both unachievable by any practical means, but the aggressive pursuit of it…has not delivered any benefits, but it’s delivered tremendous costs.” This is objectively true, the most painful example being the rapid deindustrialization of the formerly strong British economy and the accompanying rapacious condemnation of thousands of acres of arable lands to become home to huge wind and solar installations.
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As Wright points out, “no one’s going to make an energy-intensive product in the United Kingdom anymore.” A clear object lesson in that reality came in September when venerable steelmaker Tata Steel shut down the last existing steelmaking plant in the UK.
Climate zealots in both major parties celebrated that event, but we must ask what there really is to celebrate? Sure, the Labour politicos get to virtue signal about the elimination of X tons of carbon dioxide emissions, but in a global sense, that’s meaningless. The UK still needs steel – the only difference now is that the steel that used to be made by highly-paid workers in domestic mills will now be imported steel made by poverty waged workers in Pakistan, China and other mainly Asian countries.
Meanwhile, the emissions created by making the steel in those other countries with lower environmental regulations will be far larger than from steel that used to be made in the UK. As Wright pointed out at the ARC conference, “This is not energy transition. This is lunacy.”
He isn’t wrong.
On Feb. 13, the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) published a report showing that construction of new coal-fired power plants in China reached a ten-year high in 2024. CREA finds that “China approved 66.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with approvals picking up in the second half after a slower start to the year.” It all belies the favored narrative on the political left that China is leading the world in converting its power systems to renewables. In reality, the expansion of its coal sector may actually be accelerating again.
That renewed Chinese focus on expanding its coal power fleet is driven in large part by the zealous focus by globalist leaders in the UK and other western countries – Germany is another great example – on deindustrializing their own economies to satisfy their obsession over atmospheric plant food.
The making of steel and other heavy industrial processes requires reliable, affordable power generation that runs 24 hours every day, 7 days every week. Whether politicians like it or not, coal is the fuel that most reliably and consistently meets all those tests.
Thus, if China and other Asian nations are destined to inherit all the heavy industries being killed off by virtue signaling Western nations, they will need many more coal power plants to power them. This really isn’t complicated.
Meanwhile, the UK can no longer manufacture its own steel or myriad other industrial products that are essential to modern human existence. If the Labour government continues its policy of condemning vast swaths of British farmland to house more and more wind and solar sites, the kingdom will soon no longer be able to even feed its people.
All to satisfy this odd religious dogma based on an obsession over plant food. Lunacy, indeed.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
Alberta
New children’s book demonstrates how the everyday world is connected to natural resources
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From the Canadian Energy Centre
‘Today’s youth have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges’
After a 24-year career in oil sands land reclamation, author Tanya Richens is sharing her knowledge with young minds.
Her new book, From the Earth to Us: Discovering the Origins of Everyday Things, explores the relationship between natural resources and the things we use in everyday life, from computers and water bottles to batteries and solar panels.
“There is a gap in society’s understanding of where things come from. We are a society driven by consumerism and immediate gratification. We order something online, and it arrives on our doorstep the next day. We don’t stop to think about where it really came from or how it was made,” Richens says.
“There’s an ever-increasing societal position that mining is bad, and oil is even worse… But there’s a simple hypocrisy in those beliefs, since so many things in our lives are made from the raw materials that come from mining and oil and natural gas,” she says.
The book, illustrated by reclamation artist Shannon Carla King, follows young Hennessy Rose and her Cavalier King Charles Spaniel Riley on a trip to a children’s summer camp.
Hennessy’s mom is a guest speaker on the origin of everyday items and the relationship between humans and the earth. Through detailed explanations of items surrounding her, Hennessy’s mom teaches the kids how rocks, minerals, oil and gas from the earth are used to power and aid our lives, creating items such as building supplies, food and hair products, camping and sports equipment, and cell phones.
Author Tanya Richens poses with her two books for children about natural resources. Photo for Canadian Energy Centre
“I thought a simple and fun book explaining the raw materials needed to make everyday items would be valuable for all ages,” Richens says.
“When people feel personally connected to natural resources, they are more likely to promote sustainable practices. Today’s youth will have the opportunity to lead us into the future with innovative solutions for environmental challenges.”
Richens‘ career began with Alberta Environment, where she was a coordinator of reclamation approvals in the oil sands. She oversaw technical reviews of oil sands reclamation applications, communicated with statement of concern filers, coordinated public hearings and provided support for legislative changes.
She moved from government to Suncor Energy, ensuring the company’s compliance on reclamation projects and led initiatives to obtain reclamation certificates. She now works as an independent consultant.
Drawing on her wealth of experience in the field, Richens’ first book, Adventures in Land Reclamation: Exploring Jobs for a Greener Future, seeks to excite kids aged 9-12 years about jobs related to the environment and land reclamation.
Hoping to get From the Earth to Us into the hands of teachers, Richens is heading to the Edmonton Teachers Convention in late February. She says the book supports multiple learning outcomes in Alberta’s new science curriculum for grades 3, 4, 5 and 6.
“Ultimately, I’d like people to understand and acknowledge their individual part in the need for mining and oil and natural gas development. Until the naivety and hypocrisy in the world is addressed, I’m not sure that real environmental change is possible.”
Richens’ books can be purchased on her website at tcrenvironmental.com.
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