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Government laws designed to rescue Canadian media have done the opposite

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From the MacDonald-Laurier Institute

This article first appeared as the cover story to our September 2023 issue of Inside Policy. You can download the full issue here.

By Peter MenziesOctober 4, 2023

The federal government has made a regulatory mess with wrongheaded legislation targeting digital media content.

Few things are more fundamental to a nation’s economic prosperity and social cohesion than a robust communications framework.

Canada has its challenges in terms of rural and northern internet and mobile connectivity, but the nation’s overall communications mainframe is, by most international measures, in good shape. The rest of the story involving what gets carried on the mainframe (i.e., the actual content) isn’t as pretty. In fact, two recent communications policy initiatives proposed by the federal government have put tens of thousands of jobs at risk in the creative and news industries.

Money goes where it is likely to generate profit, and if some key arteries aren’t unclogged quickly, the flow of communications investment dollars in Canada could seize up. Worse, the future of what has been a thriving creative economy, driven by independent content creators, is now uncertain.

Meanwhile, the news industry is on the cusp of becoming permanently reliant on government subsidies – a dependency that’s certain to undermine the public’s already wavering trust in its independence.

But first, the good news. While measures vary by source and date, Canada consistently ranks among the world’s top 20 nations when it comes to fixed broadband connectivity, and as high as No. 1 in the world when it comes to mobile internet capacity. Given that most of nations in the top ten for broadband connectivity are smaller in landmass than Prince Edward Island, this is a considerable achievement for a country the size of Canada. This connectivity, however, has come at a premium – consumer in this country are historically among those paying the highest rates anywhere in the world, particularly when it comes to mobile plans. Costs to consumers remain high but have been trending downward in recent years as carriers shift strategic priorities from acquiring new consumers to retaining existing ones.

Far more challenging is a regulatory environment that is less than friendly when it comes to attracting private investment. The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) has been risk-averse in its dealings with Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) and smaller Internet Service Providers (ISPs) looking for competitive access rates to incumbent networks. Still, competition is one area that appears to be a priority for the CRTC. The regulator’s new chair, Vicky Eatrides, has a background in competition policy; a new vice chair, Adam Scott, is thoroughly familiar with the Telecom industrial framework; and the new Ontario Regional Commissioner, Bram Abramson, has experience as a regulatory officer for a smaller telco. (Abramson’s former employer, TekSavvy Solutions, recently waved the white flag in its efforts to compete in the Canadian market and put itself up for sale.)

Now the bad news – and, fair warning, there’s a lot of it.

Canada is aggressively regulating the internet – not in priority areas such as privacy, algorithms and data collection, but in terms of its content and its users’ freedom of navigation. The Online Streaming Act (Bill C-11) came into force in the spring, amending the Broadcasting Act to define the internet’s audio and video content as “broadcasting” and, as such, placing all this content under the authority of the CRTC. The goals remain the same as they did during the broadcast radio and cable television world of the early 1990s: the funding of certified TV and film properties, ensuring Canadian content (CanCon) gets priority over foreign programming and ensuring designated groups – BIPOC and LGBTQ2S, among other acronyms – and official language minorities are represented. How exactly the CRTC intends to achieve this without disrupting what has been a booming decade for film and television production in a freewheeling global market remains to be seen. As does how it will give its supply-managed content priority without imposing economic harm on the 100,000 Canadians who earn a living in the unlicensed, uncertified world of YouTube and other major streaming platforms.

While the CRTC has promised to provide at least preliminary answers to these questions by the end of next year, years of regulatory haggling and court challenges await and the regulator’s reputation for the timely resolution of matters is spotty at best. As of September 22, for instance, it still hadn’t dealt with a cabinet order to review its CBC licensing decision; a decision which, itself, which took 18 months for the regulator to reach (following a January 2021 hearing that was held three years after the term of the CBC’s previous license had expired). Regulatory sloth of this nature on a routine matter does not inspire much optimism for the expedient handling of the far more complex issue of online streaming.

Indeed, the burden of the Online Streaming Act has already overwhelmed the CRTC’s administrative capacities. In August, it autorenewed the licenses of 343 television channels, discretionary services, and cable and satellite services for two to three years each. It subsequently announced it wouldn’t be dealing with any radio matters at all for “at least” two years. It even nervously punted a demand for the cancellation of Fox News’ Canadian carriage into the future by declaring it necessary to re-do the entire framework involving cable carriage of foreign television channels. It has clearly signaled that it plans to manage nothing other than telecom and Online Streaming Act issues for years to come. Everything else is on hold until such time comes to initiate a catch-up process that, in turn, will itself take years to clear the logjam. All this at a time of significant disruption that demands corporate and regulatory nimbleness.

But even what appears to be catastrophic regulatory arrest pales in comparison to the impact of the federal government’s second significant piece of new internet legislation: the Online News Act. Rarely has legislation designed to assist a sector – news production – been so poorly constructed that it has managed to make everything worse for everyone involved.

Based on the unproven premise that Big Tech companies were profiting from “stealing” content from news organizations, the Act was designed to force Meta (Facebook’s parent company) and Google to redistribute their considerable advertising revenue to those who used to receive the lion’s share of this revenue – newspapers and broadcasters. From the beginning, Meta indicated that the premise and the cost of the legislation, unless amended, would force it to cease the carriage of links to news stories and suspend its existing support programs for Canadian journalism.

The government and the news industry lobbyists who backed the bill grossly overestimated their economic value to Meta and insisted the tech giant was bluffing. Last week, however, Brian Myles, Director of Le Devoir, told an online panel hosted by the Canadian Journalism Foundation that it was clear Meta wasn’t bluffing and, going forward, news organizations would have to adapt to its exit from the market and the considerable financial impact it will have on their industry. He nevertheless held out hope that a rapprochement of some kind might still be possible with Google.

Like Meta, Google has indicated that it, too, will suspend both news linkage and its current partnerships with Canadian news organizations, unless the federal government can provide more economically acceptable options than what it has heretofore offered. As much financial harm as Meta’s departure will cause, there is consensus that Google’s departure – if it occurs – would be a disaster on a nuclear scale.

Even if a deal is reached, the best the news industry can hope for is that Google’s financial concessions will offset a portion of the losses suffered from losing access to Facebook, Instagram and Threads (among other Meta properties). Any money that can be squeezed out of an agreement with Google would be meaningful but a far cry from the hundreds of millions the industry was dreaming of a year ago. The largest recipients of any such windfall, of course, will be those who least need it – namely CBC and Bellmedia.

The bottom line is that, following passage the Online News Act, there will be less revenue for Canadian news organizations than there was just a few months ago. As a result, publishers are pleading for “temporary” measures such as the Journalism Labour Tax Credit and Local Journalism Initiative to be not just extended but enhanced. Up to 35 percent of legacy newsrooms costs would be covered by the federal government while, without Facebook, it will be near impossible for local news innovators outside of the legacy bubble to build audiences.

Next up is an anticipated Online Harms Act, designed to control “lawful but awful” speech through a government-appointed Digital Safety Commissioner. Expect more policy mayhem in the months to come.

Peter Menzies is a senior fellow at MLI and a former vice-chair of the CRTC.

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2025 Energy Outlook: Steering Through Recovery and Policy Shifts

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From EnergyNow.ca

By Leonard Herchen & Yuchen Wang of GLJ

Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

The energy markets in 2025 are undergoing transformative structural changes, highlighted by the operational launch of key infrastructure projects such as LNG Canada. This development significantly enhances Canada’s ability to meet rising global LNG demand while alleviating long-standing supply bottlenecks. At the same time, economic recovery across major markets remains uneven, shaping varied trends in energy demand and production activity.

Geopolitical dynamics are poised to redefine the competitive landscape, with the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introducing potential shifts in trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and relationships with leading energy-producing nations. These changes, coupled with climate policy advancements and an accelerated global transition toward renewable energy, present additional complexities for the oil and gas sector.

Amid these uncertainties, GLJ’s analysts express confidence in the resilience of market fundamentals. Their long-term real price forecast projects WTI at USD $74.00 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas at USD $4.00 per MMBtu in 2025 dollars, signaling expectations of market stabilization and sustained global demand.

Oil Prices

The oil market in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between supply and demand. During Q4 2024, WTI prices remained stable, fluctuating between $69 and $73 per barrel. This stability highlights the market’s resilience, even in the face of a slower global economic recovery and geopolitical challenges, including weaker demand in regions like China and increased production in North America.

Geopolitical risks remain pivotal, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on oil-exporting nations such as Iran and Venezuela threatening supply disruptions. While OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide vital support to prices by tightening global supply, these efforts are partially offset by the rising output of non-OPEC producers, notably in the U.S. and Canada.

The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project is reshaping the pricing dynamics of WCS crude relative to WTI. By increasing export capacity to the West Coast, TMX has created conditions for a sustained narrowing of the WCS-WTI differential, moving away from seasonal fluctuations.

The return of a Trump-led U.S. administration introduces additional challenges. Deregulation policies aimed at boosting domestic oil production may exert downward pressure on prices, while potential trade tariffs and revised international agreements could further complicate global oil flows.

In this dynamic environment, GLJ forecasts WTI to average $71.25 per barrel and Brent $75.25 per barrel in 2025. These projections reflect robust long-term fundamentals, including sustained global demand and ongoing efforts to manage supply dynamics, emphasizing the market’s resilience despite near-term uncertainties.

Natural Gas Prices

In 2025, GLJ’s forecast suggests Henry Hub prices will average $3.20 per MMBtu, supported by steady domestic demand, seasonal winter peaks, and robust LNG exports. U.S. natural gas continues to play a critical role globally, ensuring supply security for key markets in Europe and Asia. The combination of growing industrial use, power generation demand, and stable production levels provides a solid foundation for price stability.

For the Canadian market, GLJ projects AECO natural gas prices to average $2.05 per MMBtu in 2025, representing a recovery from the lows of 2024. This improvement is attributed to easing regional oversupply and stabilizing demand. However, challenges persist, as production continues to outpace infrastructure expansion, prompting a downward adjustment of GLJ’s long-term AECO price forecast by $0.40 per MMBtu. The ramp-up of LNG Canada’s operations is expected to progressively enhance market dynamics and address these challenges.

On a global scale, LNG benchmarks such as NBP, TTF, and JKM have remained relatively stable, supported by high storage levels in Europe and balanced supply-demand conditions. European suppliers have effectively managed storage drawdowns, ensuring sufficient reserves for winter. Nevertheless, these benchmarks remain susceptible to market volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties.

The CAD/USD Exchange Rate

The Canadian dollar experienced sharp depreciation during the last quarter of 2024, with the CAD/USD exchange rate falling below 0.70 USD. Economists have attributed this decline to the strength of the U.S. economy and its currency, the widening gap between the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s lending rates, as well as tariff threats and a political crisis in Ottawa. These factors have created a favorable environment for the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Looking ahead to 2025, GLJ forecasts a CAD/USD exchange rate averaging 0.705 USD, underpinned by steady oil and gas revenues and enhanced export capacity from major projects such as LNG Canada and the TMX and eventual resolution of internal political issues and return to normalcy in US tariff policy.

Nevertheless, the outlook for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain, shaped by global economic recovery—particularly in China—and U.S. policy decisions under the Trump administration. While near-term challenges persist, Canada’s resource-driven economy and strategic energy export position provide a degree of resilience. In the absence of significant economic or geopolitical disruptions, GLJ projects the CAD/USD exchange rate to stabilize around 0.75 USD over the long term.

In 2025, GLJ expanded its database to include forecasts for Colombia Vasconia and Castilla Crude, as well as lithium prices, reflecting the increasing focus on diverse energy and resource markets. The addition of lithium forecasts aligns with the growing global emphasis on energy transition minerals critical for electric vehicles and battery storage solutions. A separate blog, set to be published next week on the GLJ website, will explore the lithium price forecast in greater depth, offering a detailed analysis and strategic implications for the energy sector.


GLJ’s forecast values for key benchmarks is as follows:

 

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Liberal Leadership Candidates should scrap the carbon tax

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From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation

By Kris Sims

As Liberal leadership campaigns are preparing to launch, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is calling on all Liberal leadership candidates to commit to scrapping the carbon tax, especially with the next carbon tax hike coming on April 1.

“This was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s costly failure and the carbon tax should go out the door with him,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Why would the next Liberal leader want to keep this political millstone and continue to punish taxpayers whenever they fill up at the gas station or pay their home-heating bill?”

The new leader of the Liberal Party will face a rapidly approaching deadline for a key carbon tax decision.

Parliament resumes on March 24 and opposition parties have all promised to immediately bring down the government and trigger an election.

The carbon tax is set to increase April 1.

“A carbon tax hike in the first days of an election will absolutely infuriate taxpayers,” said Sims. “And pausing that hike would be a half measure that taxpayers would view as a silly pre-election gimmick.

“The next Liberal leader is facing a stark choice: kick off the election by hiking the carbon tax or scrap the failed scheme completely.”

Prior to the carbon tax hike last spring, a Leger poll showed 69 per cent of Canadians opposed the increase.

After the April increase, the carbon tax will cost 21 cents per litre of gasoline, 25 cents per litre of diesel and 18 cents per cubic metre of natural gas.

At those rates, the carbon tax will cost about $15 extra to fill a minivan, about $27 extra to fill a pickup truck and about $250 extra to fill a big rig truck. The average Canadian household will need to pay about $390 extra on their home heating bills for natural gas.

The Canadian Trucking Alliance reports the carbon tax cost the long haul trucking industry $2 billion in 2024.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer reports the carbon tax will cost Canadian farmers $1 billion over the next five years.

The PBO also confirmed, again, that the carbon tax costs the average Canadian family more money than they get back in rebates.

“The carbon tax makes Canadians pay more for everything, from fuel to food,” said Sims. “Continuing to punish Canadians with the pointless carbon tax would be political suicide so taxpayers expect anyone hoping to become prime minister to immediately commit to scrapping the carbon tax.”

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