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Game changer: Trans Mountain pipeline expansion complete and starting to flow Canada’s oil to the world

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Workers complete the “golden weld” of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on April 11, 2024 in the Fraser Valley between Hope and Chilliwack, B.C. The project saw mechanical completion on April 30, 2024. Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

From the Canadian Energy Centre

By Will Gibson

‘We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil’

It is a game changer for Canada that will have ripple effects around the world.  

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is now complete. And for the first time, global customers can access large volumes of Canadian oil, with the benefits flowing to Canada’s economy and Indigenous communities.  

“We’re going to be moving into a market where buyers are going to be competing to buy Canadian oil,” BMO Capital Markets director Randy Ollenberger said recently, adding this is expected to result in a better price for Canadian oil relative to other global benchmarks. 

The long-awaited expansion nearly triples capacity on the Trans Mountain system from Edmonton to the West Coast to approximately 890,000 barrels per day. Customers for the first shipments include refiners in China,  California and India, according to media reports.  

Shippers include all six members of the Pathways Alliance, a group of companies representing 95 per cent of oil sands production that together plan to reduce emissions from operations by 22 megatonnes by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050.  

The first tanker shipment from Trans Mountain’s expanded Westridge Marine Terminal is expected later in May.

Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

 The new capacity on the Trans Mountain system comes as demand for Canadian oil from markets outside the United States is on the rise.  

According to the Canada Energy Regulator, exports to destinations beyond the U.S. have averaged a record 267,000 barrels per day so far this year, up from about 130,000 barrels per day in 2020 and 33,000 barrels per day in 2017. 

“Oil demand globally continues to go up,” said Phil Skolnick, New York-based oil market analyst with Eight Capital.  

“Both India and China are looking to add millions of barrels a day of refining capacity through 2030.” 

In India, refining demand will increase mainly for so-called medium and heavy oil like what is produced in Canada, he said. 

“That’s where TMX is the opportunity for Canada, because that’s the route to get to India.”  

Led by India and China, oil demand in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to increase from 36 million barrels per day in 2022 to 52 million barrels per day in 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

More oil coming from Canada will shake up markets for similar world oil streams including from Russia, Ecuador, and Iraq, according to analysts with Rystad Energy and Argus Media. 

Expanded exports are expected to improve pricing for Canadian heavy oil, which “have been depressed for many years” in part due to pipeline shortages, according to TD Economics.  

Photo courtesy Trans Mountain Corporation

 In recent years, the price for oil benchmark Western Canadian Select (WCS) has hovered between $18-$20 lower than West Texas Intermediate (WTI) “to reflect these hurdles,” analyst Marc Ercolao wrote in March 

“That spread should narrow as a result of the Trans Mountain completion,” he wrote. 

“Looking forward, WCS prices could conservatively close the spread by $3–4/barrel later this year, which will incentivize production and support industry profitability.”  

Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Office has said that an increase of US$5 per barrel for Canadian heavy oil would add $6 billion to Canada’s economy over the course of one year. 

The Trans Mountain Expansion will leave a lasting economic legacy, according to an impact assessment conducted by Ernst & Young in March 2023.  

In addition to $4.9 billion in contracts with Indigenous businesses during construction, the project leaves behind more than $650 million in benefit agreements and $1.2 billion in skills training with Indigenous communities.   

Ernst & Young found that between 2024 and 2043, the expanded Trans Mountain system will pay $3.7 billion in wages, generate $9.2 billion in GDP, and pay $2.8 billion in government taxes. 

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Alberta

Former Chief Judge of Manitoba Proincial Court will lead investigation into AHS procurement process

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Deputy Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Christopher McPherson has issued the following statement on an independent third-party investigation into procurement and contracting processes used by the Government of Alberta and Alberta Health Services (AHS):

Deputy Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade Christopher McPherson has issued the following statement on an independent third-party investigation into procurement and contracting processes used by the Government of Alberta and Alberta Health Services (AHS):

“While serving as Acting Deputy Minister of Executive Council, Premier Danielle Smith asked me to establish a credible, independent, third-party investigation into the procurement processes used by the Government of Alberta and AHS and their outcomes.

“I have informed Premier Smith that the Honourable Raymond E. Wyant, former Chief Judge of the Provincial Court of Manitoba, will lead this investigation. I asked Premier Smith to issue a ministerial order to facilitate his work and she has done so. Judge Wyant’s work on this matter begins immediately.

“Judge Wyant was appointed to the Manitoba bench in 1998 before becoming Chief Judge in 2002. Prior to his service on the bench, Judge Wyant worked as a criminal defence lawyer and Crown attorney and was acting deputy director of Manitoba prosecutions at the time of his appointment to the Bench. He has also taught law for many years at Robson Hall at the University of Manitoba.

“Judge Wyant will review the relevant legislation, regulations and policies related to procurement typically used by Government of Alberta departments and agencies, specifically AHS, and their application to the procurement of pharmaceuticals and to services offered by chartered surgical facilities. Questions that Judge Wyant will consider are outlined in the attached terms of reference, and include whether or not any elected official, Government of Alberta or AHS employee, or other individuals, acted improperly during the procurement processes. Judge Wyant will make recommendations to the government for improvement or further action as appropriate.

“Appointed under the Government Organization Act, Judge Wyant will operate independently of government. The Government of Alberta will provide Judge Wyant with access to all relevant documents held by its departments and AHS, as well as facilitate interviews with relevant individuals.

“Judge Wyant has been given a budget of $500,000 to undertake this important work, including to retain legal and audit assistance at his discretion. He is being paid $31,900 per month, which is the same remuneration rate as the Chief Justice of the Alberta Court of Justice.

“To ensure additional independence, Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction will hold the budget for this third-party investigation.

“Judge Wyant will deliver an interim written report by May 30, 2025. A final written report and recommendations will be delivered by June 30, 2025, and it will be posted on alberta.ca.”

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Alberta

Province announces funding for interim cardiac catheterization lab at the Red Deer Regional Hospital

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Alberta’s government is partnering with the Red Deer Regional Health Foundation to expedite the delivery of life-saving cardiac services to central Alberta residents.

Alberta’s government is partnering with the Red Deer Regional Health Foundation to expedite the delivery of life-saving cardiac services to central Alberta residents.

Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring that Albertans have access to the health care they need, including life-saving cardiac care and lab services, no matter where they live. For those in central Alberta, the Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre plays a critical role in providing that care, which is why the $1.8-billion Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre redevelopment project includes two state-of-the-art cardiac catheterization labs.

While the project is expected to be completed by 2031, the government recognizes the urgent need for cardiac services for the 450,000 Albertans from Red Deer and surrounding rural communities. If passed, Budget 2025 will provide $3 million in startup funding and ongoing funding to cover the operational costs for an interim cardiac catheterization lab at the Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre.

“Every Albertan should have access to the health care services they need close to home. Albertans living in the Red Deer area have long advocated for a cardiac catheterization lab and I am pleased to support a project that we know will help save lives.”

Adriana LaGrange, Minister of Health

A cardiac catheterization lab is a dedicated space where specialized teams can carry out diagnostic tests that examine and evaluate heart function to aid in the diagnosis of cardiac health concerns and treatment of coronary artery disease. The lab will be equipped with specialized imaging equipment to allow for cardiac procedures primarily including ablation, angiogram and angioplasty.

The interim cardiac catheterization lab will be located within the existing Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre in a space currently being used as a physician’s lounge. Preliminary design plans are already in place and construction is expected to begin by fall 2025.

The Red Deer Regional Health Foundation has committed to funding the capital cost of the project, which is expected to be about $22 million.

In October 2024, the foundation announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Alberta Health Services to fast-track the opening of a cardiac catheterization lab at Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre.

“We are incredibly grateful for the generosity of the Donald and Lacey families, whose support is bringing life-saving cardiac care closer to home for the benefit of all central Albertans. Together with all our health care partners, their commitment to advancing health care will make a lasting impact on countless lives for years to come.”

Manon Therriault, chief executive officer, Red Deer Regional Health Foundation

The foundation’s work is made possible by the generosity of donors, supporters and champions across the region. To support the development of the interim cardiac catheterization lab, the foundation announced a $10-million donation from the John Donald family.

“I am pleased to support the development of cardiac services in central Alberta, something we’ve long advocated for. This initiative will provide essential care to our community and ensure that more lives are saved closer to home.”

John Donald, Red Deer Regional Health Foundation donor

By prioritizing the development of an interim cardiac catheterization lab, patients will have access to critical services about three years earlier than expected. The interim cardiac catheterization lab is expected to be operational in early 2027.

“Developing this lab will allow us to treat more cardiac patients closer to home and support them in their recovery. Enhancing our cardiac services will also support our efforts to recruit and retain the talented professionals needed to care for our region’s patients.”

Janice Stewart, chief zone officer, Alberta Health Services Central Zone

Being able to meet the needs of the province’s rapidly growing population is a top priority for Alberta’s government.

Quick facts

  • The $1.8-billion Red Deer Regional Hospital Centre redevelopment project will upgrade several services throughout the hospital site, including:
    • an additional patient tower
    • six new operating rooms
    • a new medical device reprocessing department
    • two new cardiac catheterization labs
    • renovations to various areas within the main building
    • a newly renovated and expanded emergency department
    • a new ambulatory clinic building to be located adjacent to the surface parkade

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