From the Fraser Institute

By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari

During a recent speech in Brazil, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “many sources”—including governments—must spend “no less than $3 trillion” each year for the world to achieve “net-zero” global carbon emissions by 2050. While Yellen was light on specifics, she said the money would pay for “clean energy technologies” and “pathways to sustainable and inclusive growth.”

But to achieve net zero, which means either eliminating fossil fuel generation or offsetting the emissions generated through activities such as planting trees, countries must phase out the world’s primary energy source (fossil fuels such as oil and gas), defying the global trend of increasing fossil fuel consumption.

Indeed, between 1997 (when the original Kyoto Protocol was ratified) and 2023, the share of total global energy represented by fossil fuels declined slightly from 85.7 per cent to 81.5 per cent. However, during that same period the actual use of fossil fuels has increased dramatically with global consumption of coal, gas and oil increasing by 56 per cent.

Here in Canada, despite billions spent and almost a decade of new taxes and regulations in the Trudeau government’s pursuit of net zero by 2050, the share of fossil fuels in our total energy consumption increased from 64.6 per cent in 2015 to 65.0 per cent in 2023. Clearly, the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, regulations and policies meant to phase out fossil fuels have not achieved this goal.

But this comes as no surprise. Massive energy transitions are slow and take centuries. Renowned scholar Vaclav Smil’s recent study explained that the first global energy transition—from traditional biomass fuels (including wood and charcoal) to fossil fuels—started more than two centuries ago and unfolded gradually. In fact, the transition away from biomass fuels remains incomplete. Nearly three billion people in the developing world still depend on charcoal, straw and dried dung for cooking and heating, accounting for about 7 per cent of the world’s energy supply (as of 2020).

According to Smil, coal only surpassed wood as the main energy source worldwide around the year 1900. It took more than 150 years from its first commercial extraction for oil to reach 25 per cent of all fossil fuels consumed worldwide, reaching this milestone in the 1950s. And natural gas reached this threshold at the end of the 20th century, after 130 years of the industry’s development.

So, let’s look at what net-zero advocates are proposing in a different way. For the world to reach net zero by 2050, the amount of energy humanity must replace with new sources (e.g. wind, solar) is 23 times greater than the amount of energy the world used when the previous transition started in the 19th century. And governments want to achieve this unprecedented transition in less than one-eighth of the time of the previous transition.

While politicians worldwide talk about a great energy transition, fossil fuel consumption has only grown. And it’s the same story here at home. Clearly, achieving net zero by 2050 is neither realistic nor feasible.