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Former Premier Rachel Notley steps down as leader of the Alberta NDP

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News release from the Alberta NDP

Good morning everyone.

We’re gathered on the traditional territory of Treaty 6 and I also want to acknowledge the Metis people who share a deep connection to this land.

There’s been a great deal of speculation since the election as to my future. While politics to the south of us would suggest I have at least 20 years left in my political career, I think the advisability of that is debatable.

More to the point, having considered what I believe to be the best interests of our party, our caucus, as well as my own preferences, I am here today to announce that I will not be leading Alberta’s NDP into the next election.

I have informed both the senior officers of Alberta’s NDP as well as my caucus and staff that upon the selection of a new leader, I will be stepping down from that role.

This October will be 10 years since I was first given the honour of leading our party.

At the time we were the fourth party in the legislature with a massive caucus consisting of four MLAs. Less than seven months later we had a caucus of 54 MLAs, and Alberta’s first NDP government.

While many of those folks never expected to be elected…

…let alone find themselves in a government cabinet, we scrambled, quickly, to live up to the immense privilege the people of Alberta bestowed upon us.

We didn’t get everything right. But we governed with integrity, an ambitious agenda and an earnest desire to make life better for Albertans.

While this is not the place to go down into a policy rabbit hole, I will highlight just a few of the things that make me proud.

We approved and built the Calgary Cancer Centre – a decision that was at least a decade overdue.
We stood up for the rights of working people – improving their access to unions, increasing their holidays, protecting their safety in the workplace …

…And we were the first jurisdiction in North America to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour, making a real difference in the life of Alberta’s working poor and tens of thousands of young people and their families.

We secured Alberta’s first pipeline to tidewater in over 50 years, ensuring that the return to Albertans for the sale of resources we all own is permanently increased.

We eliminated coal-fired electricity in Alberta, thereby increasing the health of countless citizens, and at the same time kickstarting our renewable energy industry to be the fastest growing on the continent…

…all while significantly reducing our emissions in one fell swoop.

And, finally, in the midst of a recession caused by the international collapse in the price of oil (seriously folks, I did not cause that), we cut child poverty in half.

But, as I said, we didn’t get it all right. And Albertans told us so in April of 2019.

Now I thought about leaving then. And there are many reasons I did not. But the biggest is probably this: too many people were declaring that the Alberta NDP was done, and, more importantly, that Alberta was destined to revert back to being a one party conservative state.

And I knew that wasn’t true. And I also knew that it would be awful for Albertans if they came to believe that it was.

So four years later, last spring, we came so close to earning the right to lead Alberta again.

We received the highest percentage of the vote that the Alberta NDP ever has.

We won Edmonton,

We won the majority of seats in Calgary,

We increased our vote throughout the province and we elected the largest Official Opposition in the history of this province.

An opposition that is very very ready to take over the reins of government.

But it wasn’t enough. And that’s why it’s now time for me to leave.

But if there is any ONE accomplishment that I can leave behind me… it’s that we are NOT a one party province where Albertans have no real choice about how their province is run.

Albertans do not ever have to feel that elections and their opinions don’t matter.

It was that way when I started. It’s not that way anymore.

Not only do I leave Albertans with that electoral choice, I leave them with a caucus that is filled with expert, dedicated, diverse people, supported by the hardest working and most skilled political staff in the country.

Our NDP team will not stop fighting to make life better for all Albertans.

We will fight to protect and improve our healthcare, to stand up for our children’s right to a world-class education, to fix the housing crisis, to keep Albertan’s CPP safe, and to confront the reality of climate change.

Roughly ten years ago today, I talked to my kids about how they’d feel if I decided to run for the leadership of the Alberta NDP.

Roughly 15, 12 and 10 years ago, I listened to my husband tell me he thought I should run for the leadership of the Alberta NDP.

In all cases, my family got a bit more than they’d bargained for. It’s been a crazy ride, but I could not have done it without them.

I was raised by both my father and my mother to believe that public service is something one should strive for throughout your life.

I wish they could have been here to see some of what we’ve accomplished.

Either way it would not have happened without the examples they both set – demonstrating daily the value of hard work, compassion for our neighbours and the importance of their social democratic convictions.

To all the volunteers, activists, donors, canvassers, past current and future in Alberta’s NDP — Thank you.

There would be no success without you. You are the strength and the foundation of our movement and I will be forever humbled by your selfless dedication to our province.

Short of having, raising, and debating with my family, the opportunity to serve this party and this province has been the honour of my life.

Over the last decade, Albertans have given me a tremendous opportunity to serve in this role and I am so grateful.

The people of our province are bold, friendly, open, caring and adventurous. I’ve learned so much from them. And the land we share is the most beautiful — and sometimes the coldest — place on earth.

I also want to thank the people of Edmonton Strathcona who have supported me since 2008. We live in and are part of a fabulous community that I am so proud to call home.

Thank you to all the Albertans I’ve met along the way – those who advised me, supported me, disagreed with me, and, yes, even campaigned against me.

We all love this province.

I love this province and I know that our best days are still ahead.

Thank you.

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Alberta

Low oil prices could have big consequences for Alberta’s finances

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill

Amid the tariff war, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil—a common benchmark—recently dropped below US$60 per barrel. Given every $1 drop in oil prices is an estimated $750 million hit to provincial revenues, if oil prices remain low for long, there could be big implications for Alberta’s budget.

The Smith government already projects a $5.2 billion budget deficit in 2025/26 with continued deficits over the following two years. This year’s deficit is based on oil prices averaging US$68.00 per barrel. While the budget does include a $4 billion “contingency” for unforeseen events, given the economic and fiscal impact of Trump’s tariffs, it could quickly be eaten up.

Budget deficits come with costs for Albertans, who will already pay a projected $600 each in provincial government debt interest in 2025/26. That’s money that could have gone towards health care and education, or even tax relief.

Unfortunately, this is all part of the resource revenue rollercoaster that’s are all too familiar to Albertans.

Resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is inherently volatile. In the last 10 years alone, it has been as high as $25.2 billion in 2022/23 and as low as $2.8 billion in 2015/16. The provincial government typically enjoys budget surpluses—and increases government spending—when oil prices and resource revenue is relatively high, but is thrown into deficits when resource revenues inevitably fall.

Fortunately, the Smith government can mitigate this volatility.

The key is limiting the level of resource revenue included in the budget to a set stable amount. Any resource revenue above that stable amount is automatically saved in a rainy-day fund to be withdrawn to maintain that stable amount in the budget during years of relatively low resource revenue. The logic is simple: save during the good times so you can weather the storm during bad times.

Indeed, if the Smith government had created a rainy-day account in 2023, for example, it could have already built up a sizeable fund to help stabilize the budget when resource revenue declines. While the Smith government has deposited some money in the Heritage Fund in recent years, it has not created a dedicated rainy-day account or introduced a similar mechanism to help stabilize provincial finances.

Limiting the amount of resource revenue in the budget, particularly during times of relatively high resource revenue, also tempers demand for higher spending, which is only fiscally sustainable with permanently high resource revenues. In other words, if the government creates a rainy-day account, spending would become more closely align with stable ongoing levels of revenue.

And it’s not too late. To end the boom-bust cycle and finally help stabilize provincial finances, the Smith government should create a rainy-day account.

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Alberta

Governments in Alberta should spur homebuilding amid population explosion

Published on

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill and Austin Thompson

In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Alberta has long been viewed as an oasis in Canada’s overheated housing market—a refuge for Canadians priced out of high-cost centres such as Vancouver and Toronto. But the oasis is starting to dry up. House prices and rents in the province have spiked by about one-third since the start of the pandemic. According to a recent Maru poll, more than 70 per cent of Calgarians and Edmontonians doubt they will ever be able to afford a home in their city. Which raises the question: how much longer can this go on?

Alberta’s housing affordability problem reflects a simple reality—not enough homes have been built to accommodate the province’s growing population. The result? More Albertans competing for the same homes and rental units, pushing prices higher.

Population growth has always been volatile in Alberta, but the recent surge, fuelled by record levels of immigration, is unprecedented. Alberta has set new population growth records every year since 2022, culminating in the largest-ever increase of 186,704 new residents in 2024—nearly 70 per cent more than the largest pre-pandemic increase in 2013.

Homebuilding has increased, but not enough to keep pace with the rise in population. In 2024, construction started on 47,827 housing units—the most since 48,336 units in 2007 when population growth was less than half of what it was in 2024.

Moreover, from 1972 to 2019, Alberta added 2.1 new residents (on average) for every housing unit started compared to 3.9 new residents for every housing unit started in 2024. Put differently, today nearly twice as many new residents are potentially competing for each new home compared to historical norms.

While Alberta attracts more Canadians from other provinces than any other province, federal immigration and residency policies drive Alberta’s population growth. So while the provincial government has little control over its population growth, provincial and municipal governments can affect the pace of homebuilding.

For example, recent provincial amendments to the city charters in Calgary and Edmonton have helped standardize building codes, which should minimize cost and complexity for builders who operate across different jurisdictions. Municipal zoning reforms in CalgaryEdmonton and Red Deer have made it easier to build higher-density housing, and Lethbridge and Medicine Hat may soon follow suit. These changes should make it easier and faster to build homes, helping Alberta maintain some of the least restrictive building rules and quickest approval timelines in Canada.

There is, however, room for improvement. Policymakers at both the provincial and municipal level should streamline rules for building, reduce regulatory uncertainty and development costs, and shorten timelines for permit approvals. Calgary, for instance, imposes fees on developers to fund a wide array of public infrastructure—including roads, sewers, libraries, even buses—while Edmonton currently only imposes fees to fund the construction of new firehalls.

It’s difficult to say how long Alberta’s housing affordability woes will endure, but the situation is unlikely to improve unless homebuilding increases, spurred by government policies that facilitate more development.

Tegan Hill

Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser Institute

Austin Thompson

Senior Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute
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