Alberta
Finance Minister Nate Horner says Alberta on track to $2.4 billion surplus
Q1 update: Continued fiscal growth
Alberta’s strong fiscal management continues to secure Alberta’s future.
Alberta is on course to record a $2.4-billion surplus at the end of 2023-24, despite an unprecedented wildfire season and ongoing economic volatility. This is $94 million higher than forecast in Budget 2023.
Strong and prudent fiscal management will help Alberta remain the economic engine of Canada. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Alberta families now and for decades to come. Based on the first quarter update, Alberta plans to eliminate $2.6 billion in taxpayer-supported debt this fiscal year.
“Alberta’s finances remain strong, and thanks to our new fiscal framework, Alberta’s fiscal position is poised to become even stronger. Our continued priorities of paying down debt and saving for the future will ensure we have the capacity to meet Albertans’ needs both today and well into the future.”
After the required 50 per cent of projected available surplus cash is used to pay off maturing debt, remaining surplus cash will be allocated to the Alberta Fund, where it can be used for additional debt repayment, contributions to the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and one-time initiatives that do not lead to a permanent increase in government spending. A projected $2.6 billion will be set aside in the Alberta Fund in 2023-24.
Revenue
Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $71.1 billion, a $491-million increase from Budget 2023.
Alberta’s robust business environment is attracting investment and people from around the country, driving a projected $1.5-billion increase in corporate and personal income tax revenue.
The corporate income tax revenue forecast has increased by $889 million, following a record-high year in 2022-23. At eight per cent, Alberta’s general corporate income tax rate is the lowest in the country. Alberta’s low taxes remain one reason investors choose Alberta.
Keeping life affordable is a key priority for Alberta’s government, which is why it paused the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel in January. Extending the pause to the end of 2023 will save Albertans and Alberta businesses 13 cents per litre on gasoline and diesel for the rest of the calendar year. As a result, fuel tax revenue is forecast to be reduced by $532 million – money that is going directly back into the pockets of Albertans every time they fill up their vehicle.
Between April 1 and June 30, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil averaged US$74 per barrel. It is now forecast to average $US75 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, $4 lower than the Budget 2023 forecast. The resulting impact on Alberta’s revenue is being offset by a narrower light-heavy oil price differential, which is now forecast to average US$15 per barrel, $5 narrower than at budget.
Bitumen royalties are projected to increase by $515 million in 2023-24; however, overall resource revenue is projected to decrease by $694 million from the budget forecast. Lower natural gas royalties account for most of the projected decrease due to weaker prices, robust North American production and the impact of wildfires on production in Alberta.
Expense
Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.7 billion, a $397-million increase from Budget 2023. The expense increase before the forecast contingency allocation is $1.6 billion. Of this, $397 million is funded by dedicated revenue and $1.2 billion is set aside as a preliminary allocation from the contingency, leaving $323 million unallocated.
The unprecedented wildfire season in the province prompted Alberta’s government to act swiftly and responsibly to ensure the safety of Albertans in affected areas. To date, the government has allocated $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province this year, along with $175 million for uninsurable losses, $75 million of which is expected to be covered by the federal government, and $55 million, mainly for emergency evacuation payments. Alberta’s government will continue to support Albertans during difficult situations like natural disasters.
The operating expense forecast has increased by $179 million, mainly due to a $214-million increase in Health funding that is being fully offset by federal bilateral agreement revenue. Capital grant increases of $170 million are mainly for re-profiling projects from the 2022-23 fiscal year.
Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $245 million from budget, mainly due to higher interest rates – reiterating the importance of government’s commitment to paying down debt.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is Alberta’s long-term savings account, and the government remains committed to growing it. The fund performed well during the 2023-24 first quarter, earning a two per cent return with a net investment income of $739 million. Its fair value of net assets on June 30 was $21.6 billion, an increase from the $21.2 billion recorded at the end of the previous fiscal year.
Over five years, the fund returned 6.4 per cent, which is 0.6 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark.
Economic outlook
By continuing to grow and diversify Alberta’s economy, Alberta’s government is continuing to exceed expectations. Alberta’s real gross domestic product is now expected to rise three per cent in 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from Budget 2023. Projections by private forecasters show the province is expected to lead the country in economic growth this year.
Robust population growth is supporting Alberta’s labour market and generating demand and activity in Alberta’s economy, ultimately boosting the province’s economic outlook. Although risks and uncertainty persist due to rising interest rates, high consumer prices and other factors, Alberta’s economy remains well-positioned to withstand any challenges that arise.
Quick facts
- The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is calculated after several necessary cash adjustments are made.
- In 2023-24, the total amount available for allocation is forecast at $5.2 billion, which includes $5.1 billion carried over from the 2022-23 final results.
Alberta
With $15 a day flat rate, Alberta transitions to publicly funded child care
Introducing $15 a day child care for families
Alberta is introducing a flat monthly parent fee of $326.25 for full-time licensed child care, or roughly $15 a day.
As part of the $3.8-billion Canada-Alberta Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreement, Alberta is supporting families to access affordable child care across the province with their choice in provider.
Starting Apr. 1, parents with children zero to kindergarten age attending full-time licensed daycare facilities and family day home programs across the province will be eligible for a flat parent fee of $326.25 per month, or roughly $15 a day. Parents requiring part-time care will pay $230 per month.
To support these changes and high-quality child care, about 85 per cent of licensed daycare providers will receive a funding increase once the new fee structure is in place on Apr. 1.
Every day, parents and families across Alberta rely on licensed child-care providers to support their children’s growth and development while going to work or school. Licensed child-care providers and early childhood educators play a crucial role in helping children build the skills they need to support their growth and overall health. As Alberta’s population grows, the need for high-quality, affordable and accessible licensed and regulated child care is increasing.
While Alberta already reduced parent fees to an average of $15 a day in January 2024, many families are still paying much more depending on where they live, the age of their child and the child-care provider they choose, which has led to inconsistency and confusion. Many families find it difficult to estimate their child-care fees if they move or switch providers, and providers have expressed concerns about the fairness and complexity of the current funding framework.
A flat monthly fee will provide transparency and predictability for families in every part of the province while also improving fairness to providers and increasing overall system efficiency. On behalf of families, Alberta’s government will cover about 80 per cent of child-care fees through grants to daycare facilities and family day homes.
This means a family using full-time daycare could save, on average, $11,000 per child per year. A flat monthly parent fee will ensure child care is affordable for everyone and that providers are compensated for the important services they offer.
As opposed to a flat monthly parent fee, Alberta’s government will reimburse preschools up to $100 per month per child on parents’ behalf, up from $75.
“Albertans deserve affordable child-care options, no matter where they are or which type of care works best for them. We are bringing in flat parent fees for families so they can all access high-quality child care for the same affordable, predictable fee.”
“Reducing child care fees makes life more affordable for families and gives them the freedom to make choices that work for them—whether that’s working, studying or growing their family. We’ll keep working to bring costs down, create more spots, and reduce waitlists for families in Alberta and across the country, while ensuring every child gets the best start in life.”
To make Alberta’s child-care system affordable for all families, the flat monthly parent fee is replacing the Child Care Subsidy Program for children zero to kindergarten age attending child care during regular school hours. The subsidy for children attending out-of-school care is not changing.
As the province transitions to the new flat parent fee, child-care providers will have flexibility to offer optional services for an additional supplemental parent fee. These optional services must be over and above the services that are provided to all children in individual child-care programs. Clear requirements will be in place for providers to prevent preferential child-care access for families choosing to pay for optional services.
Cutting red tape and supporting child-care providers
By moving to a flat monthly parent fee, Alberta’s government is continuing the transition to a primarily publicly funded child care system. To support high-quality child care, approximately 85 per cent of licensed daycare providers will receive a funding increase once the new structure is in place on Apr. 1.
The province is enhancing the system to streamline the child-care claims process used to reimburse licensed child-care providers on behalf of Alberta parents. Alberta’s government is also putting technological solutions in place to reduce administrative burden and red tape.
Looking ahead
Over the final year of the federal agreement, Alberta’s government is working to support the child-care system while preparing to negotiate the next term of the agreement, reflective of the needs of Albertans and providers. Alberta joins its provincial and territorial partners across the country in calling for a sustainable, adequately funded system that works for parents and providers long term.
Quick facts
- In line with requirements under the Canada-Alberta Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care Agreement, the flat monthly parent fee only applies to children zero to kindergarten age requiring care during regular school hours.
- Children attending 100 or more hours in a month are considered full-time and parents will pay $326.25 a month. Children attending between 50 and 99 hours are considered part-time and parents will pay $230 a month.
- Families with children attending preschool for up to four hours a day are eligible for up to $100 per month.
- There are no changes to the out-of-school care Child Care Subsidy Program for children requiring care outside of school hours in grades 1 to 6 and attending full-time kindergarten.
- Programs may choose to provide optional services for a supplemental fee. Examples may include transportation, field trips and food. Child-care programs are not required to charge parents additional supplemental fees.
Related information
Alberta
AMA challenged to debate Alberta COVID-19 Review
Justice Centre President sends an open letter to Dr. Shelley Duggan, President of the Alberta Medical Association
Dear Dr. Duggan,
I write in response to the AMA’s Statement regarding the Final Report of the Alberta Covid Pandemic Data Review Task Force. Although you did not sign your name to the AMA Statement, I assume that you approved of it, and that you agree with its contents.
I hereby request your response to my questions about your AMA Statement.
You assert that this Final Report “advances misinformation.” Can you provide me with one or two examples of this “misinformation”?
Why, specifically, do you see this Final Report as “anti–science and anti–evidence”? Can you provide an example or two?
Considering that you denounced the entire 269-page report as “anti–science and anti–evidence,” it should be very easy for you to choose from among dozens and dozens of examples.
You assert that the Final Report “speaks against the broadest, and most diligent, international scientific collaboration and consensus in history.”
As a medical doctor, you are no doubt aware of the “consensus” whereby medical authorities in Canada and around the world approved the use of thalidomide for pregnant women in the 1950s and 1960s, resulting in miscarriages and deformed babies. No doubt you are aware that for many centuries the “consensus” amongst scientists was that physicians need not wash their hands before delivering babies, resulting in high death rates among women after giving birth. This “international scientific consensus” was disrupted in the 1850s by a true scientist, Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who advocated for hand-washing.
As a medical doctor, you should know that science is not consensus, and that consensus is not science.
It is unfortunate that your AMA Statement appeals to consensus rather than to science. In fact, your AMA Statement is devoid of science, and appeals to nothing other than consensus. A scientific Statement from the AMA would challenge specific assertions in the Final Report, point to inadequate evidence, debunk flawed methodologies, and expose incorrect conclusions. Your Statement does none of the foregoing.
You assert that “science and evidence brought us through [Covid] and saved millions of lives.” Considering your use of the word “millions,” I assume this statement refers to the lockdowns and vaccine mandates imposed by governments and medical establishments around the world, and not the response of the Alberta government alone.
What evidence do you rely on for your assertion that lockdowns saved lives? You are no doubt aware that lockdowns did not stop Covid from spreading to every city, town, village and hamlet, and that lockdowns did not stop Covid from spreading into nursing homes (long-term care facilities) where Covid claimed about 80% of its victims. How, then, did lockdowns save lives? If your assertion about “saving millions of lives” is true, it should be very easy for you to explain how lockdowns saved lives, rather than merely asserting that they did.
Seeing as you are confident that the governments’ response to Covid saved “millions” of lives, have you balanced that vague number against the number of people who died as a result of lockdowns? Have you studied or even considered what harms lockdowns inflicted on people?
If you are confident that lockdowns did more good than harm, on what is your confidence based? Can you provide data to support your position?
As a medical doctor, you are no doubt aware that the mRNA vaccine, introduced and then made mandatory in 2021, did not stop the transmission of Covid. Nor did the mRNA vaccine prevent people from getting sick with Covid, or dying from Covid. Why would it not have sufficed in 2021 to let each individual make her or his own choice about getting injected with the mRNA vaccine? Do you still believe today that mandatory vaccination policies had an actual scientific basis? If yes, what was that basis?
You assert that the Final Report “sows distrust” and “criticizes proven preventive public health measures while advancing fringe approaches.”
When the AMA Statement mentions “proven preventive public health measures,” I assume you are referring to lockdowns. If my assumption is correct, can you explain when, where and how lockdowns were “proven” to be effective, prior to 2020? Or would you agree with me that locking down billions of healthy people across the globe in 2020 was a brand new experiment, never tried before in human history? If it was a brand new experiment, how could it have been previously “proven” effective prior to 2020? Alternatively, if you are asserting that lockdowns and vaccine passports were “proven” effective in the years 2020-2022, what is your evidentiary basis for that assertion?
Your reference to “fringe approaches” is particularly troubling, because it suggests that the majority must be right just because it’s the majority, which is the antithesis of science.
Remember that the first doctors to advocate against the use of thalidomide by pregnant women, along with Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis advocating for hand-washing, were also viewed as “advancing fringe approaches” by those in authority. It would not be difficult to provide dozens, and likely hundreds, of other examples showing that true science is a process of open-minded discovery and honest debate, not a process of dismissing as “fringe” the individuals who challenge the reigning “consensus.”
The AMA Statement asserts that the Final Report “makes recommendations for the future that have real potential to cause harm.” Specifically, which of the Final Report’s recommendations have a real potential to cause harm? Can you provide even one example of such a recommendation, and explain the nature of the harm you have in mind?
The AMA Statement asserts that “many colleagues and experts have commented eloquently on the deficiencies and biases [the Final Report] presents.” Could you provide some examples of these eloquent comments? Did any of your colleagues and “experts” point to specific deficiencies in the Final Report, or provide specific examples of bias? Or were these “eloquent” comments limited to innuendo and generalized assertions like those contained in the AMA Statement?
In closing, I invite you to a public, livestreamed debate on the merits of Alberta’s lockdowns and vaccine passports. I would argue for the following: “Be it resolved that lockdowns and vaccine passports imposed on Albertans from 2020 to 2022 did more harm than good,” and you would argue against this resolution.
Seeing as you are a medical doctor who has a much greater knowledge and a much deeper understanding of these issues than I do, I’m sure you will have an easy time defending the Alberta government’s response to Covid.
If you are not available, I would be happy to debate one of your colleagues, or any AMA member.
I request your answers to the questions I have asked of you in this letter.
Further, please let me know if you are willing to debate publicly the merits of lockdowns and vaccine passports, or if one of your colleagues is available to do so.
Yours sincerely,
John Carpay, B.A., LL.B.
President
Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms
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