Alberta
Finance Minister Nate Horner says Alberta on track to $2.4 billion surplus
Q1 update: Continued fiscal growth
Alberta’s strong fiscal management continues to secure Alberta’s future.
Alberta is on course to record a $2.4-billion surplus at the end of 2023-24, despite an unprecedented wildfire season and ongoing economic volatility. This is $94 million higher than forecast in Budget 2023.
Strong and prudent fiscal management will help Alberta remain the economic engine of Canada. The government’s new fiscal framework requires the government to use at least half of available surplus cash to pay down debt, freeing up money that can support the needs of Alberta families now and for decades to come. Based on the first quarter update, Alberta plans to eliminate $2.6 billion in taxpayer-supported debt this fiscal year.
“Alberta’s finances remain strong, and thanks to our new fiscal framework, Alberta’s fiscal position is poised to become even stronger. Our continued priorities of paying down debt and saving for the future will ensure we have the capacity to meet Albertans’ needs both today and well into the future.”
After the required 50 per cent of projected available surplus cash is used to pay off maturing debt, remaining surplus cash will be allocated to the Alberta Fund, where it can be used for additional debt repayment, contributions to the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and one-time initiatives that do not lead to a permanent increase in government spending. A projected $2.6 billion will be set aside in the Alberta Fund in 2023-24.
Revenue
Revenue for 2023-24 is forecast at $71.1 billion, a $491-million increase from Budget 2023.
Alberta’s robust business environment is attracting investment and people from around the country, driving a projected $1.5-billion increase in corporate and personal income tax revenue.
The corporate income tax revenue forecast has increased by $889 million, following a record-high year in 2022-23. At eight per cent, Alberta’s general corporate income tax rate is the lowest in the country. Alberta’s low taxes remain one reason investors choose Alberta.
Keeping life affordable is a key priority for Alberta’s government, which is why it paused the provincial fuel tax on gasoline and diesel in January. Extending the pause to the end of 2023 will save Albertans and Alberta businesses 13 cents per litre on gasoline and diesel for the rest of the calendar year. As a result, fuel tax revenue is forecast to be reduced by $532 million – money that is going directly back into the pockets of Albertans every time they fill up their vehicle.
Between April 1 and June 30, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil averaged US$74 per barrel. It is now forecast to average $US75 per barrel over the course of the fiscal year, $4 lower than the Budget 2023 forecast. The resulting impact on Alberta’s revenue is being offset by a narrower light-heavy oil price differential, which is now forecast to average US$15 per barrel, $5 narrower than at budget.
Bitumen royalties are projected to increase by $515 million in 2023-24; however, overall resource revenue is projected to decrease by $694 million from the budget forecast. Lower natural gas royalties account for most of the projected decrease due to weaker prices, robust North American production and the impact of wildfires on production in Alberta.
Expense
Expense for 2023-24 is forecast at $68.7 billion, a $397-million increase from Budget 2023. The expense increase before the forecast contingency allocation is $1.6 billion. Of this, $397 million is funded by dedicated revenue and $1.2 billion is set aside as a preliminary allocation from the contingency, leaving $323 million unallocated.
The unprecedented wildfire season in the province prompted Alberta’s government to act swiftly and responsibly to ensure the safety of Albertans in affected areas. To date, the government has allocated $750 million for fighting wildfires in the province this year, along with $175 million for uninsurable losses, $75 million of which is expected to be covered by the federal government, and $55 million, mainly for emergency evacuation payments. Alberta’s government will continue to support Albertans during difficult situations like natural disasters.
The operating expense forecast has increased by $179 million, mainly due to a $214-million increase in Health funding that is being fully offset by federal bilateral agreement revenue. Capital grant increases of $170 million are mainly for re-profiling projects from the 2022-23 fiscal year.
Debt servicing costs are forecast to increase $245 million from budget, mainly due to higher interest rates – reiterating the importance of government’s commitment to paying down debt.
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is Alberta’s long-term savings account, and the government remains committed to growing it. The fund performed well during the 2023-24 first quarter, earning a two per cent return with a net investment income of $739 million. Its fair value of net assets on June 30 was $21.6 billion, an increase from the $21.2 billion recorded at the end of the previous fiscal year.
Over five years, the fund returned 6.4 per cent, which is 0.6 per cent above the return of its passive benchmark.
Economic outlook
By continuing to grow and diversify Alberta’s economy, Alberta’s government is continuing to exceed expectations. Alberta’s real gross domestic product is now expected to rise three per cent in 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from Budget 2023. Projections by private forecasters show the province is expected to lead the country in economic growth this year.
Robust population growth is supporting Alberta’s labour market and generating demand and activity in Alberta’s economy, ultimately boosting the province’s economic outlook. Although risks and uncertainty persist due to rising interest rates, high consumer prices and other factors, Alberta’s economy remains well-positioned to withstand any challenges that arise.
Quick facts
- The amount of surplus cash available for debt repayment and the Alberta Fund is calculated after several necessary cash adjustments are made.
- In 2023-24, the total amount available for allocation is forecast at $5.2 billion, which includes $5.1 billion carried over from the 2022-23 final results.
Grande Prairie. Getty Images photo
From the Canadian Energy Centre
Federal cash grab driving costs for local governments, driving up property taxes
New data shows the painful economic impact of the federal carbon tax on municipalities.
Municipalities in Alberta paid out more than $37 million in federal carbon taxes in 2023, based on a recent survey commissioned by Alberta Municipal Affairs, with data provided to the Canadian Energy Centre.
About $760,000 of that came from the City of Grande Prairie. In a statement, Mayor Jackie Clayton said “if the carbon tax were removed, City property taxes could be reduced by 0.6 per cent, providing direct financial relief to residents and businesses in Grande Prairie.”
Conducted in October, the survey asked municipal districts, towns and cities in Alberta to disclose the amount of carbon tax paid out for the heating and electrifying of municipal assets and fuel for fleet vehicles.
With these funds, Alberta municipalities could have hired 7,789 high school students at $15 per hour last year with the amount paid to Ottawa.
The cost on municipalities includes:
Lloydminster: $422,248
Calgary: $1,230,300 (estimate)
Medicine Hat: $876,237
Lethbridge: $1,398,000 (estimate)
Grande Prairie: $757,562
Crowsnest Pass: $71,100
Red Deer: $1,495,945
Bonnyville: $19,484
Hinton: $66,829
Several municipalities also noted substantial indirect costs from the carbon tax, including higher rates from vendors that serve the municipality – like gravel truck drivers and road repair providers – passing increased fuel prices onto local governments.
The rising price for materials and goods like traffic lights, steel, lumber and cement, due to higher transportation costs are also hitting the bottom line for local governments.
The City of Grande Prairie paid out $89 million in goods and services in 2023, and the indirect costs of the carbon tax “have had an inflationary impact on those expenses” in addition to the direct costs of the tax.
In her press conference announcing Alberta’s challenge to the federal carbon tax on Oct. 29, 2024, Premier Danielle Smith addressed the pressures the carbon tax places on municipal bottom lines.
“In 2023 alone, the City of Calgary could have hired an additional 112 police officers or firefighters for the amount they sent to Ottawa for the carbon tax,” she said.
In a statement issued on Oct. 7, 2024, Ontario Conservative MP Ryan Williams, shadow minister for international trade, said this issue is nationwide.
“In Belleville, Ontario, the impact of the carbon tax is particularly notable. The city faces an extra $410,000 annually in costs – a burden that directly translates to an increase of 0.37 per cent on residents’ property tax bills.”
There is no rebate yet provided on retail carbon pricing for towns, cities and counties.
In October, the council in Belleville passed a motion asking the federal government to return in full all carbon taxes paid by municipalities in Canada.
The unaltered reproduction of this content is free of charge with attribution to the Canadian Energy Centre.
Alberta’s government is launching a public engagement to gather input about legislation and policies around assisted suicide, also referred to as medical assistance in dying (MAID).
Medical assistance in dying is a process that allows an eligible person to receive assistance from a medical practitioner in ending their life. To be found eligible, a person must be suffering from a serious and permanent medical condition.
Alberta’s government is reviewing how MAID is regulated to ensure there is a consistent process as well as oversight that protects vulnerable Albertans, specifically those living with disabilities or suffering from mental health challenges. An online survey is now open for Albertans to share their views and experiences with MAID until Dec. 20.
“We recognize that medical assistance in dying is a very complex and often personal issue and is an important, sensitive and emotional matter for patients and their families. It is important to ensure this process has the necessary supports to protect the most vulnerable. I encourage Albertans who have experience with and opinions on MAID to take this survey.”
In addition to the online survey, Alberta’s government will also be engaging directly with academics, medical associations, public bodies, religious organizations, regulatory bodies, advocacy groups and others that have an interest in and/or working relationship to the MAID process, health care, disabilities and mental health care.
Feedback gathered through this process will help inform the Alberta government’s planning and policy decision making, including potential legislative changes regarding MAID in Alberta.
“Our government has been clear that we do not support the provision of medically assisted suicide for vulnerable Albertans facing mental illness as their primary purpose for seeking their own death. Instead, our goal is to build a continuum of care where vulnerable Albertans can live in long-term health and fulfilment. We look forward to the feedback of Albertans as we proceed with this important issue.”
“As MAID is a federally legislated and regulated program that touches the lives of many Albertans, our priority is to ensure we have robust safeguards to protect vulnerable individuals. Albertans’ insights will be essential in developing thoughtful policies on this complex issue.”
The federal Criminal Code sets out the MAID eligibility criteria, procedural safeguards and reporting obligations. The federal government has paused MAID eligibility for individuals with a mental illness as their sole underlying medical condition until March 2027 to ensure the provincial health care systems have processes and supports in place. Alberta’s government does not support expanding MAID eligibility to include those facing depression or mental illness and continues to call on the federal government to end this policy altogether.
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