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Federal government’s turbo-charged immigration helping drive housing demand

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

Unusually brisk population growth is putting considerable strain on public services and infrastructure, in part because the federal government did essentially nothing to plan or prepare for the dramatic surge in immigration that its own policies sanctioned.

According to a recent Statistics Canada report, Canada’s population has just hit the level it was previously expected to reach in 2028. That startling finding underscores the extraordinary growth of the country’s population since the pandemic, driven by record inflows of both permanent and “temporary” immigrants.

A rapidly expanding population can bring some benefits, notably by stimulating overall economic activity and providing additional workers. But it’s not an alloyed good. The number of Canadian residents is increasing faster than economic output (gross domestic product), which has translated into an unprecedented series of declines in per-person GDP over the last several quarters. Productivity is stagnant, as newcomers struggle to find their way in the economy and job market. In addition, a significant share of new immigrants don’t seek or obtain employment, dampening immigration’s contribution to the growth of economic output.

Meanwhile, unusually brisk population growth is putting considerable strain on public services and infrastructure, in part because the federal government did essentially nothing to plan or prepare for the dramatic surge in immigration that its own policies sanctioned. The “downstream” challenge of managing the pressures flowing from turbo-charged immigration falls mainly to provinces and municipalities, not faraway Ottawa.

All of this has implications for the hottest issue in Canadian politics today—housing affordability and supply. Like the rest of us, newcomers need a place to live. Immigration is the predominant source of incremental housing demand in much of the country, particularly big cities. Demand for housing also comes from the existing Canadian population, as young adults establish separate households, marriages dissolve, and people move to other communities or neighbourhoods for work, education or to retire.

Unfortunately, homebuilding has been running far behind what’s necessary to accommodate immigration, let alone meet the demand from household formation among current residents. In 1972, when the population stood at 22 million, roughly 220,000 new homes were added to the Canadian housing stock. In 2023, with a population of 40 million, housing starts were only a little higher than half a century ago.

This brings us to the Trudeau government’s multi-faceted housing plan, rolled out over the past year and finalized with great fanfare in the 2024 federal budget. The government has pledged to somehow build 3.9 million new homes by 2031—just seven years from now. This is equivalent to 550,00 housing starts per year. It’s an aspirational target, but also a patently unrealistic one.

The federal government has little control over what happens in the towns, cities and provinces where most of the policy and regulatory decisions affecting homebuilding and community development are made. Moreover, the Canadian construction sector doesn’t have the spare human resources or organizational capacity to quickly double housing starts. Even today, the construction sector’s “job vacancy rate” is higher than the all-industry average.

The year 2021 marked an all-time record for Canadian housing starts at 270,000. Starts fell over 2022-23, amid higher interest rates. This year, RBC Economics projects housing starts of 251,000, rising to 273,000 in 2025. To put it mildly, these figures are inconsistent with Ottawa’s ambitious plan to deliver 550,00 new homes per year.

We’ll likely see more and faster homebuilding over the next few years, as governments at all levels direct more money and political attention to housing. But a doubling of housing starts simply won’t occur within the Trudeau government’s politically manufactured timeline. One thing seems certain—Canada’s housing “crisis” will continue to fester.

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Economy

Returning Trump To The White House Would Reverse Biden’s ‘Energy Ideocracy

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By DAVID BLACKMON

With a second term for former President Donald Trump suddenly seeming far more likely in the wake of President Joe Biden’s shocking debate performance, the decision by a Louisiana federal judge Monday to place a hold on the Biden Energy Department’s bizarre “pause” on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) permitting highlights a clear example of how energy policy would shift with a Trump win in November.

In rendering his decision, Federal District Judge James Cain, Jr. called the justifications for the paus offered by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and DOE staff “completely without reason or logic and is perhaps the epiphany of ideocracy.”

Oof. Of course, that is pretty much what I wrote here about it back in February after the policy was put in place, though I did leave out the part about “ideocracy.”

Simply put, a second Trump presidency would put a quick end to interventionist efforts by the federal government to pick winners and losers in the energy space. Such ideocratic efforts have throughout history most often created unintended consequences that do great damage to impacted industries and the overall economy.

Indeed, Biden’s ideocratic efforts to force adoption of electric vehicles on an increasingly reluctant American public are already doing great damage to the domestic auto industry.

Last month, Fisker became the latest in a succession of pure-play EV makers to go into bankruptcy. Peer company Rivian was teetering on the brink of having to make a similar move before it was bailed out by angel investor Volkswagen’s pledge to pour $5 billion of new capital into its operations in the coming years.

Ford Motor Company has struggled in its own efforts to mount a successful line of EVs, reporting billions of dollars in losses in the process. Investor pressures became so intense after the company lost $132,000 on every unit sold in Q1 2024 that management announced a move to delay and cancel billions in planned additional EV investments in favor of shifting focus to hybrid cars instead.

Biden’s and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland’s similarly ideocratic efforts to subsidize massive wind developments off the North Atlantic shores of New England have predictably produced similarly damaging results. A parade of planned projects by major wind developers like Equinor, Orsted, and BP have been cancelled as Biden-induced inflation caused their costs to mushroom. A few have been renewed, but with renegotiated power supply rates that will cause utility customers’ bills to explode. Add to that the fact that at least 98 marine mammals — some listed as endangered species — have washed up dead on the beaches of New Jersey alone as wind development has ramped up. You can also add ecological disaster to the economic damage related to this ideocratic pursuit.

Economic and other displacements related to Biden’s ideocratic subsidies for wind and solar industrial installations onshore have become so noticeable and impactful that they are now being opposed in local communities all over the country, with many being rejected outright. Energy Analyst Robert Bryce keeps an excellent comprehensive database of these rejections at his own website.

Even with the local pushback, though, many more proposed wind and solar sites have been approved and developed while benefitting from an array of federal and state subsidies and tax incentives. Unfortunately, the flooding of power grids in Texas and across the rest of the country with unpredictable intermittent generation has had the ideocratic impact of dramatically reducing the stability and reliability of electricity service across the country.

The simple truth is that, in describing the Biden/Granholm LNG permitting pause as “perhaps the epiphany of ideocracy,” Judge Cain could have just as well have been describing the entirety of the administration’s energy policies.

I am asked every day by friends, family and readers alike what changes a second Trump administration would bring to energy policy. It is a question I have always struggled to answer in 50 words or less.

But now, thanks to Judge Cain, I will have a ready answer: “Trump would reverse Biden’s energy ideocracy.”

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Featured Image Credit: Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

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Economy

European Voters Are Taking Sledgehammer To Continent’s Radical Open Borders And Climate Agenda

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From the Daily Caller News Foundation

By RICHARD HOLT

 

The results from both the recent European Parliamentary elections and France’s snap legislative elections have surprised our socialist friends across the ocean.

Despite the consistent rejection of climate activism in national elections, the ultra-left European Union Parliament has continued to loom darkly on its subjugated member states with failing “climate” and “open border” policies. The election results are more than just a passing trend: they are a clear repudiation of the left-wing policies on immigration and climate that have dominated the EU’s agenda in recent years.

Voters across Europe have expressed their dissatisfaction with these policies, which they perceive as economically burdensome and socially disruptive. In Germany, for example, center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) secured 30.2% of the vote, while the conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 16%, a significant increase from their previous performance​​. This rise in support for the AfD is a direct response to the German government’s aggressive climate policies and its handling of immigration.

The German government’s climate agenda — particularly the Energiewende, has placed a heavy financial burden on households and businesses. Within the framework is a policy called “Marginal Pricing.” This means that the price of electricity at any given time is set by the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand at that moment. The overall transition to renewable energy has led to some of the highest electricity prices in Europe, with German households paying significantly more than the European average​​. These high costs have not only strained family budgets but have also impacted the competitiveness of German industries, leading to job losses and economic uncertainty.

Moreover, the decision to phase out coal and nuclear energy without adequate alternatives has left the country reliant on costly and inconsistent renewable sources. This dual energy system has created inefficiencies and further driven up costs​​. The frustration over these economic pressures has been a significant factor in the rise of conservative parties, who promise to alleviate these burdens by rolling back stringent climate regulations.

Immigration policies have also played a crucial role in the electorate’s shift to the right. Germany, and indeed much of Europe, has experienced a significant influx of asylum seekers over the past decade. The public’s growing concern over immigration, coupled with the perceived inability of left-wing parties to manage this influx effectively, has driven voters toward conservative alternatives. The AfD, for instance, has capitalized on these concerns, positioning itself as the defender of national borders and cultural identity​​.

This trend is not confined to Germany. In France, the legislative elections held this weekend show a significant shift to the right there as well. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally garnered over 33% of the vote, a dramatic win reflecting public dissatisfaction with Macron’s failed policies. Macron’s policies in regards to taxes, pensions and immigration coupled with long-term protests has eroded support for his centrist alliance, which only received about 21% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front, including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, trailed with around 28% of the vote. This rightward shift is part of a broader European trend where voters are increasingly turning to conservative parties in response to economic strain and immigration concerns​.

The success of these parties underscores a growing demand for policies that prioritize national sovereignty and economic pragmatism over ideological commitments to climate activism and open borders. Voters are increasingly skeptical of policies that they perceive as detached from the realities of everyday life. The economic strain of high energy costs, combined with the social challenges of integrating large numbers of immigrants, has fueled a backlash against the left-wing establishment.

The rightward shift in the elections for the European Parliament is a powerful statement against the dubious feel-good policies from a failed left-wing activism on climate and immigration. It is a demand for a more market-centered approach that considers the economic and social realities faced by regular Europeans. The rise of conservative parties across the continent is not just a political realignment but a profound demand for sanity.

Richard Holt is an ambassador for Project 21, an initiative of The National Center for Public Policy Research to promote the views of African-Americans whose entrepreneurial spirit, dedication to family and commitment to individual responsibility have not traditionally been echoed by the nation’s civil rights establishmentHe is also a political consultant at Sirius Campaigns with over two decades of experience working on campaigns for local, state and federal offices across the country.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Featured image credit: Marine Le Pen (Screen Capture/CSPAN)

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