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Federal government clearly misstates its economic record

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From the Fraser Institute

By Jock Finlayson

“since 2015 Canada has posted some of the weakest economic growth numbers, measured on a per-person basis, in half a century”

“Denominator blindness” refers to situations where people fail to put what seem to be big numbers into proper context. The affliction is especially common among governments seeking to justify their spending and other policy decisions. In Canada, denominator blindness has become a central feature of the narratives peddled by many politicians.

For example, the Trudeau government’s recent economic update, which includes a forward by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland where she notes that the International Monetary Fund expects Canada to have “the strongest economic growth in the G7 next year.” She also insists her government is fostering economic growth that “creates middle class jobs, raises incomes, and makes middle class communities more prosperous.”

Both claims lack context and misstate the government’s economic record.

Prosperity is measured using both a numerator, typically the amount of output the economy produces in a year, and a denominator, the size of the population. A larger population means the economic pie must be divided into more slices to estimate how much “output” is available to the average resident. With a rapidly expanding population, the economy must generate a lot more output merely to stop the individual pie slices from shrinking.

Minister Freeland is correct that Canada’s economy has been growing, both since the worst of the COVID shock in late-2020/early-2021 and over the period when the Trudeau government has been in power. But she ignores the bigger picture, which shows two important things.

First, since 2015 Canada has posted some of the weakest economic growth numbers, measured on a per-person basis, in half a century. The pattern of feeble economic growth was evident before the onset of COVID.

Second, Canada is among the few advanced economies where output or gross domestic product (GDP) per person in 2023 has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels. In part, this reflects surging population growth, which affects the denominator that helps determine whether economic growth is producing gains in average incomes and living standards. In Canada’s case, modest economic growth combined with a skyrocketing population has resulted in a multi-year decline in per-person income and erosion of overall prosperity. Adjusted for inflation, GDP per person is still 2 per cent lower than in 2019.

Denominator blindness also characterizes recent attempts by the federal, Ontario and Quebec governments to explain why they’re allocating up to $50 billion in subsidies and tax incentives to lure a handful of electric vehicle battery manufacturers to Canada. The politicians making these decisions point to the several thousand jobs the EV manufacturing facilities will support once they are fully operational. But they won’t discuss how this fits within the larger job market.

Total employment in Canada is 20.1 million, with almost 1.8 million jobs in manufacturing. The vast sums being thrown at EV battery manufacturers will have essentially no impact on the aggregate job numbers and barely make a ripple, even in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, not all the promised EV jobs will be “new” positions—many workers attracted to the EV industry will likely be drawn from other businesses, worsening skill shortages that are plaguing Canadian manufacturers.

Perhaps aspiring politicians should be required to study the basic arithmetic of fractions before they run for office.

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Trump considers $5K bonus for moms to increase birthrate

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President Trump voiced support Tuesday for a $5,000 cash bonus for new mothers, as his administration weighs policies to counter the country’s declining birthrate. The idea is part of a broader push to promote family growth and revive the American family structure.

Key Details:

  • Trump said a reported “baby bonus” plan “sounds like a good idea to me” during an Oval Office interview.
  • Proposals under consideration include a $5,000 birth bonus, prioritizing Fulbright scholarships for parents, and fertility education programs.
  • U.S. birthrates hit a 44-year low in 2023, with fewer than 3.6 million babies born.

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump signaled his support Tuesday for offering financial incentives to new mothers, including a potential $5,000 cash bonus for each child born, as part of an effort to reverse America’s falling birthrate. “Sounds like a good idea to me,” Trump told The New York Post in response to reports his administration is exploring such measures.

The discussions highlight growing concern among Trump administration officials and allies about the long-term implications of declining fertility and family formation in the United States. According to the report, administration aides have been consulting with pro-family advocates and policy experts to brainstorm solutions aimed at encouraging larger families.

Among the proposals: a $5,000 direct payment to new mothers, allocating 30% of all Fulbright scholarships to married applicants or those with children, and launching federally supported fertility education programs for women. One such program would educate women on their ovulation cycles to help them better understand their reproductive health and increase their chances of conceiving.

The concern stems from sharp demographic shifts. The number of babies born in the U.S. fell to just under 3.6 million in 2023—down 76,000 from 2022 and the lowest figure since 1979. The average American family now has fewer than two children, a dramatic drop from the once-common “2.5 children” norm.

Though the birthrate briefly rose from 2021 to 2022, that bump appears to have been temporary. Additionally, the age of motherhood is trending older, with fewer teens and young women having children, while more women in their 30s and 40s are giving birth.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt underscored the administration’s commitment to families, saying, “The President wants America to be a country where all children can safely grow up and achieve the American dream.” Leavitt, herself a mother, added, “I am proud to work for a president who is taking significant action to leave a better country for the next generation.”

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Trump: China’s tariffs to “come down substantially” after negotiations with Xi

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President Trump said the 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports will drop significantly once a deal is struck with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing confidence that a new agreement is on the horizon.

Key Details:

  • Trump said the current 145% tariff rate on China “won’t be anywhere near that high” after negotiations.
  • He pointed to his relationship with Xi Jinping as a reason for optimism.
  • The White House said it is preparing the groundwork for a deal, and Treasury officials expect a “de-escalation” of the trade war.

Diving Deeper:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday told reporters that the steep tariff rate currently imposed on Chinese imports will come down substantially after his administration finalizes a new trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. While the current level stands at 145%, Trump made clear that number was temporary and would be adjusted following talks with Beijing.

“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump said from the Oval Office, signaling a shift once a bilateral agreement is reached. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”

The tariff, which Trump previously described as “reciprocal,” was maintained on China even after he delayed similar penalties on other trading partners. Those were cut to 10% and paused for 90 days to allow room for further negotiation.

“We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, reinforcing his view that the U.S. holds the leverage.

Trump’s remarks come as markets remain wary of ongoing trade tensions, though the White House signaled progress, saying it is “setting the stage for a deal with China.” The president cited his personal rapport with Xi Jinping as a key factor in his confidence that an agreement can be reached.

“China was taking us for a ride, and it’s not going to happen,” Trump said. “They would make billions a year off us and build up their military with our money. That’s over. But we’ll still be good to China, and I think we’ll work together.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said Tuesday that he expects a cooling of trade hostilities between the two nations, according to several reports from a private meeting with investors.

As the 90-day pause on other reciprocal tariffs nears its end, Trump emphasized that his team is prepared to finalize deals quickly. “We’ve been in talks with many, many world leaders,” he said, expressing confidence that talks will “go pretty quickly.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added that the administration has received 18 formal proposals from other countries engaged in trade negotiations, another sign that momentum is building behind Trump’s broader push to restructure global trade in favor of American workers and businesses.

(Li Xueren/Xinhua via AP)

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