Alberta
Federal Election Response: One Albertan’s Thoughts
The wholly predictable results of yesterday’s election are tantamount to a deafening sucker punch to Alberta and the West – and things are not about to get better for us under this minority Liberal government, because Justin Trudeau is effectually tone deaf to our deep and growing alienation.
Or worse, perhaps he just doesn’t care. He says he will support Alberta, but he also said he would balance the federal budget by 2019 and told an Ontario town hall gathering two years ago that: “We can’t shut down the oilsands tomorrow. We need to phase them out.” So how supported do Albertans feel right now? Not very.
Bills C-48 and C-69 speak loudly his intentions with respect to Alberta and the West. The fact that his minority government will now have to rely on NDP or Bloc support in the House almost certainly means no social license for Alberta’s “dirty oil” going forward – notwithstanding we have the cleanest, most ethically produced, environmentally sensitive, human & employee rights protected oil and gas industry in the world.
It’s truly a sad day for Albertans and the West generally. As a proud, hard-working, industrious people, we must now rally together and send a clear message to the federal government and the rest of Canada that we will not concede to second-class citizen status any longer.
We cannot continue to generate net billions in transfer payments (even through the most painfully protracted recession in collective memory), while the main industry responsible for that wealth is under targeted attack on several fronts, and while provinces like Quebec (and Ontario between 2009 and 2018) continue to reap the benefits of collecting net billions: $11.7 and $13.1 billion transferred to Quebec in 2018 and 2019 fiscal years respectively – in a time of fiscal surplus for Quebec to the tune of 2.5 to 3 billion dollars.
Meanwhile in July 2017, the Fraser Institute reported that Alberta contributed 221.4 billion more in revenue than it received in federal transfer payments and grants between the years 2007 and 2015 – contributing more money to the federal purse than any other province in Canada. Last year alone, Alberta paid net 21.8 billion more in taxes to the federal government than we got back in grants – notwithstanding our economy is still mired in recession with shuttered businesses on every corner – and we’ve not received a federal transfer payment since 1965.
Premier Jason Kenney noted that “Since equalization was created [in 1957], Alberta has received 0.02% of all payments, the last of which was in 1964-1965. In contrast, Quebec has received equalization money every year of the program, totalling 221 billion dollars or 51 per cent of all payments.”
Part of the injustice of this program stems from the systemic inequity in how provincial revenue capacity is calculated under the federal equalization formula. Here’s a quick case study:
Between 2005 and 2010, Quebec received 42.5 billion in equalization payments. Had transfer payment rules treated Quebec’s hydro-electric revenue the same as they treat Alberta’s oil and gas revenue in the calculation of revenue capacity, those payments would have been reduced to 28.1 billion over that same period – meaning that Quebec was overpaid by 14.4 billion dollars (or 34 per cent) during that time, because the rules are designed to favour Quebec in the calculation of provincial revenue under the federal formula.
In the wake of yesterday’s federal election, it’s hard to see a path where Premier Kenney won’t be putting the question of equalization equity to Albertans by way of an upcoming referendum, since he promised that:
“If the federal government continues its attacks through the National Energy Board (NEB) and the federal carbon tax, then Alberta should take a common-sense approach and hold a referendum demanding the removal of non-renewable resource revenues from the equalization formula … [to] massively reduce Alberta’s contribution to equalization.”
Moreover, Section 88 of the Supreme Court’s decision in Reference re Secession of Quebec, [1998] 2 S.C.R. 217 seems to pave a clear path for the democratic will of any province to express itself, by referendum or otherwise, to the rest of the country by renegotiating the terms of its participation:
“The clear repudiation by the people of [Alberta] of the existing constitutional order would confer legitimacy on demands for [fiscal equity], and place an obligation on the other provinces and the federal government to acknowledge and respect that expression of democratic will by entering into negotiations and conducting them in accordance with the underlying constitutional principles already discussed.” [Edited from the original text: people of Quebec and demands for secession to reflect Alberta’s aspirations for equity].
Finally, no substantive review of this Albertan’s response to yesterday’s election would be complete without reference to the submission published in the National Post on January 24, 2001, headlined “An open letter to Ralph Klein” wherein we read:
“… We believe the time has come for Albertans to take greater charge of our own future. This means resuming control of the powers that we possess under the constitution of Canada but that we have allowed the federal government to exercise. Intelligent use of these powers will help Alberta build a prosperous future in spite of a misguided and increasingly hostile government in Ottawa. …
All of these steps can be taken using the constitutional powers that Alberta now possesses. In addition, we believe it is imperative for you to take all possible political and legal measures to reduce the financial drain on Alberta caused by Canada’s tax-and-transfer system. …
Starting to act now will secure the future for all Albertans. It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta, to limit the extent to which an aggressive and hostile federal government can encroach upon legitimate provincial jurisdiction. …
The precondition for the success of this Alberta Agenda is the exercise of all our legitimate provincial jurisdictions under the constitution of Canada.”
Elements of this Alberta Agenda identified in the now famous “Firewall” letter include:
- Withdraw from Canada Pension Plan to create an Alberta Pension Plan.
- Collect our own revenue from personal income tax.
- Create our own Alberta Provincial Police Force.
- Resume Provincial responsibility for health care policy.
- Advocate for meaningful senate reform.
- Reduce the drain on Alberta caused by transfer payments.
Whether by a Firewall, Wexit arrangement, or otherwise, Alberta and the West now need to circle the wagons, so to speak, and formulate a strategy that makes the rest of Canada stand up and take notice. And by take notice, I mean effect meaningful change to level the playing field of Confederation.
It’s been so shamefully, undemocratically, inexcusably unlevel for so long, that the West can no longer abide our current configuration in Canada. We can no longer stand to be second-class citizens of this great nation. Some iteration of change is inexorably forthcoming, because the West deserves – and must demand – justice.
Alberta
Alberta’s fiscal update projects budget surplus, but fiscal fortunes could quickly turn
From the Fraser Institute
By Tegan Hill
According to the recent mid-year update tabled Thursday, the Smith government projects a $4.6 billion surplus in 2024/25, up from the $2.9 billion surplus projected just a few months ago. Despite the good news, Premier Smith must reduce spending to avoid budget deficits.
The fiscal update projects resource revenue of $20.3 billion in 2024/25. Today’s relatively high—but very volatile—resource revenue (including oil and gas royalties) is helping finance today’s spending and maintain a balanced budget. But it will not last forever.
For perspective, in just the last decade the Alberta government’s annual resource revenue has been as low as $2.8 billion (2015/16) and as high as $25.2 billion (2022/23).
And while the resource revenue rollercoaster is currently in Alberta’s favor, Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledges that “risks are on the rise” as oil prices have dropped considerably and forecasters are projecting downward pressure on prices—all of which impacts resource revenue.
In fact, the government’s own estimates show a $1 change in oil prices results in an estimated $630 million revenue swing. So while the Smith government plans to maintain a surplus in 2024/25, a small change in oil prices could quickly plunge Alberta back into deficit. Premier Smith has warned that her government may fall into a budget deficit this fiscal year.
This should come as no surprise. Alberta’s been on the resource revenue rollercoaster for decades. Successive governments have increased spending during the good times of high resource revenue, but failed to rein in spending when resource revenues fell.
Previous research has shown that, in Alberta, a $1 increase in resource revenue is associated with an estimated 56-cent increase in program spending the following fiscal year (on a per-person, inflation-adjusted basis). However, a decline in resource revenue is not similarly associated with a reduction in program spending. This pattern has led to historically high levels of government spending—and budget deficits—even in more recent years.
Consider this: If this fiscal year the Smith government received an average level of resource revenue (based on levels over the last 10 years), it would receive approximately $13,000 per Albertan. Yet the government plans to spend nearly $15,000 per Albertan this fiscal year (after adjusting for inflation). That’s a huge gap of roughly $2,000—and it means the government is continuing to take big risks with the provincial budget.
Of course, if the government falls back into deficit there are implications for everyday Albertans.
When the government runs a deficit, it accumulates debt, which Albertans must pay to service. In 2024/25, the government’s debt interest payments will cost each Albertan nearly $650. That’s largely because, despite running surpluses over the last few years, Albertans are still paying for debt accumulated during the most recent string of deficits from 2008/09 to 2020/21 (excluding 2014/15), which only ended when the government enjoyed an unexpected windfall in resource revenue in 2021/22.
According to Thursday’s mid-year fiscal update, Alberta’s finances continue to be at risk. To avoid deficits, the Smith government should meaningfully reduce spending so that it’s aligned with more reliable, stable levels of revenue.
Author:
Alberta
Premier Smith says Auto Insurance reforms may still result in a publicly owned system
Better, faster, more affordable auto insurance
Alberta’s government is introducing a new auto insurance system that will provide better and faster services to Albertans while reducing auto insurance premiums.
After hearing from more than 16,000 Albertans through an online survey about their priorities for auto insurance policies, Alberta’s government is introducing a new privately delivered, care-focused auto insurance system.
Right now, insurance in the province is not affordable or care focused. Despite high premiums, Albertans injured in collisions do not get the timely medical care and income support they need in a system that is complex to navigate. When fully implemented, Alberta’s new auto insurance system will deliver better and faster care for those involved in collisions, and Albertans will see cost savings up to $400 per year.
“Albertans have been clear they need an auto insurance system that provides better, faster care and is more affordable. When it’s implemented, our new privately delivered, care-centred insurance system will put the focus on Albertans’ recovery, providing more effective support and will deliver lower rates.”
“High auto insurance rates put strain on Albertans. By shifting to a system that offers improved benefits and support, we are providing better and faster care to Albertans, with lower costs.”
Albertans who suffer injuries due to a collision currently wait months for a simple claim to be resolved and can wait years for claims related to more serious and life-changing injuries to addressed. Additionally, the medical and financial benefits they receive often expire before they’re fully recovered.
Under the new system, Albertans who suffer catastrophic injuries will receive treatment and care for the rest of their lives. Those who sustain serious injuries will receive treatment until they are fully recovered. These changes mirror and build upon the Saskatchewan insurance model, where at-fault drivers can be sued for pain and suffering damages if they are convicted of a criminal offence, such as impaired driving or dangerous driving, or conviction of certain offenses under the Traffic Safety Act.
Work on this new auto insurance system will require legislation in the spring of 2025. In order to reconfigure auto insurance policies for 3.4 million Albertans, auto insurance companies need time to create and implement the new system. Alberta’s government expects the new system to be fully implemented by January 2027.
In the interim, starting in January 2025, the good driver rate cap will be adjusted to a 7.5% increase due to high legal costs, increasing vehicle damage repair costs and natural disaster costs. This protects good drivers from significant rate increases while ensuring that auto insurance providers remain financially viable in Alberta.
Albertans have been clear that they still want premiums to be based on risk. Bad drivers will continue to pay higher premiums than good drivers.
By providing significantly enhanced medical, rehabilitation and income support benefits, this system supports Albertans injured in collisions while reducing the impact of litigation costs on the amount that Albertans pay for their insurance.
“Keeping more money in Albertans’ pockets is one of the best ways to address the rising cost of living. This shift to a care-first automobile insurance system will do just that by helping lower premiums for people across the province.”
Quick facts
- Alberta’s government commissioned two auto insurance reports, which showed that legal fees and litigation costs tied to the province’s current system significantly increase premiums.
- A 2023 report by MNP shows
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