Agriculture
The China – Russia “Grain Entente” – what is at stake for Canada and its allies?
From the Macdonald Laurier Institute
By Serghey Sukhankin
Moscow – with China’s help, approval, and likely, guidance – intends to challenge the West by changing the rules of trade in foods critical to global buyers.
Throughout its entire history the Soviet Union faced one existential peril that was never solved until its collapse in 1991 – the prospect of food shortage and mass starvation. Its cumbersome, utterly ineffective, and artificially subsidized agricultural sector was a living testament to the erroneous nature of a planned command-administrative economic model.
The situation with food and staples became so dire that starting from 1963 the Soviet Bloc (the USSR, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia) started importing wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia. This practice continued until the demise of the Soviet Empire. Everything changed after the collapse of the USSR and introduction of market-oriented reforms in Russia in the 1990s, along with the growth of commodity prices and Russia’s inclusion in the global economic architecture.
By 2000, Russia had already doubled the amount of grain it produced, making it one of the world’s top producers of this strategic commodity. By the late 2010s to early 2020s, Russia emerged as a one of the world’s largest exporters of grain and agricultural products.
However, Russia quickly realized that commodities – especially food along with hydrocarbons – could become a very useful tool of coercion in geopolitical confrontations with its rivals. This became abundantly clear after the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, when both Russia’s top-tier politicians (such as Deputy Chairman of the Security Council and former President Dmitry Medvedev) and chief propagandists (such as Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled broadcaster RT) claimed “hunger” to be Russia’s natural ally, and threaten to cut supplies of food staples to “unfriendly countries.”
At the same time, Russia tried to spark a confrontation between Ukraine and Poland, Hungary, Slovakia over commodities and staples supplies. Ironically, rather than hurting the West, Russia’s actions had a worse impact on so-called “friendly countries” – especially those in the Global South, where access to inexpensive and available foodstuffs is a matter of life and death.
Russia’s strategy of intimidation was also ineffective due to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Its so-called “special military operation” was supposed to be quick and decisive. Two years later, the war has imposed massive pressure on the Russian budget, requiring a constant cash flow that mainly comes from exporting raw materials and commodities.
Forced to evolve its strategy, Russia seems to be abandoning its plan of threatening to starve its adversaries. Instead, Moscow – with China’s help, approval, and likely, guidance – intends to challenge the West by changing the rules of trade in foods critical to global buyers. This strategy is being implemented via pursuit of two interrelated initiatives: formation of a “Grain Entente” between Beijing and Moscow, and the use of the BRICS trading bloc (consisting of nine nations led by founding countries Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a critical vehicle of change.
The first major step in this direction was made in October 2023, when the Russian Food Export Trade LLC company and China Chengtong International Limited concluded the “grain deal of the century” – the largest contract of this type ever signed between the two countries – according to which the Russian side pledges to deliver 70 million tons of various types of grain (produced in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East) over the next twelve years for US$26.5 billion. As a result, already in the first quarter of 2024, Russia broke a historical record by supplying China with large volumes of oats (.7 times more than the previous year) and buckwheat (3.3 more than the previous year) receiving a staggering US$127 million. Yet, mounting grain sales is only the tip of the iceberg. The most critical development is China’s gradual overtaking of Russia’s logistical infrastructure, which could pave the way for China’s growing control over Eurasian logistics and trade routes.
In September 2023, officials from Russia and China met at the 8th Eastern Economic Summit in Vladivostok, where officials from Russia and China agreed to create a logistical hub – the “Grain Terminal Nizhneleninskoye–Tongjiang” in the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. The goal is to create the Russia’s first “land-based grain fleet.” Consisting of 22,000 containers transporting grain, it will be capable of moving up to 600,000 tons of grain with a maximum storage capacity of up to 8 million per year. The strategic significance of this move is clear. On one hand, it allows Russia to “safeguard” itself against sanctions pressure, which will likely make Russia’s behaviour in Europe (and elsewhere) even more aggressive and unpredictable. On the other hand, China – which will acquire de facto control over Russia’s grain – will see Beijing become the world’s largest grain hub, giving it enormous power to influence and set global food prices.
Russia’s next major move was to push for the creation of a BRICS grain exchange. Fully supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the proposed grain exchange would bring together some of the world’s biggest grain buyers and exporters, cumulatively accounting for more than 42 per cent of global grain production (at nearly 1.2 million ) and 40 per cent of global consumption. International observers and subject experts have already warned that Russia- and China- adverse exporters of grain and agricultural products such as the United States, Canada, and Australia “might face challenges in maintaining their market share and negotiating for favourable trade terms, while facing competition from cheaper Russian .” In effect, this may have “significant implications for global agricultural dynamics, ranging from geopolitical and geoeconomic realignments to increased competition in agricultural trade. For traditional exporters such as Australia and the US, it is a call to reassess their national policies and strategies to navigate the evolving landscape of international trade to maintain competitiveness.”
The emergence of the BRICS grain exchange – which will undoubtedly increase Russia’s (and most likely China’s) geoeconomic role – is only a part of a much bigger strategic challenge. If the BRICS grain exchange is successful, it will have a spillover effect on another critical product – the fertilizers required by both developed and developing nations. Russia already has a competitive advantage in fertilizer production, and post-2022, has tried to use its fertilizers as geopolitical tools pressuring international organizations (such as the United Nations) to lobby for the end of sanctions imposed on Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
– If the Russia-China grain alliance proliferates and BRICS becomes a major player in the global flow of grains and other foodstuffs, it could prompt even greater changes to the established world market. Analysis of Russian-language sources and publications indicates that the next step would be the creation of an alternative to the “West-dominated” financial architecture, and ultimately, the transformation of global trade.
Russia’s plans (undoubtedly supported by China) pose a very serious challenge to Canada, its allies, and other liberal democracies.
They will likely suffer economic losses of grain exports due to the cheapness of Russian grain, and that country’s current occupation of a large part of Ukraine’s most fertile black-earth areas. If unchecked, Russia could assume control of more than 30 percent of global grain supplies.
Currently, the Indo-Pacific region is Canada’s largest export destination, with agriculture and food exports totaling $9.4 billion in 2022. If China gains unfettered access to Russian grain, it could seriously undercut Canada’s trade.
Making matters worse for Canada, its relationship with New Delhi is arguably at an all-time low, making it challenging to pivot sales of its agricultural products toward India or other countries without significant economic losses.
Looking at the bigger picture, there are a host of other potential threats to the global foods market, from the ongoing war in Ukraine to droughts and adverse climate conditions in the US, Argentina, and Australia. Amid growing uncertainty and upheaval, it’s possible that the global foods market will be carved up and dominated by Russia and other undemocratic, aggressive nations. Given Russia’s strategic goal of weakening the European Union, and ultimately causing its disintegration, it will continue to use artificially created food shortages in Africa and the Greater Middle East as a geopolitical weapon against the EU. The Kremlin hopes to replicate the crisis that occurred in 2015, when hundreds of thousands (now, potentially millions) of illegal migrants and asylum seekers poured into the EU – wreaking havoc, fostering intra-EU conflict, and assisting the rise of far-right (and left) populists.
The first step in Russia’s grand strategy is the de facto establishment of the Russo-Chinese “Grain Entente.” The next move will be the creation of a BRICS grain exchange and inclusion of other strategic commodities under the umbrella of BRICS operations. This is clearly a wakeup call for the West. We need to heed it, or else risk more dire, far-reaching consequences.
Dr. Sergey Sukhankin is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation (Washington, DC) and a Fellow at the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN). His project discussing the activities of Russian PMCs, “War by Other Means,” informed the United Nations General Assembly report entitled “Use of Mercenaries as a Means of Violating Human Rights and Impeding the Exercise of the Right of Peoples to Self-Determination.”
This article was published with support from Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Canada.
This article supplied by Troy Media.
And you may never find out if Health Canada gets its way
Cloned-animal foods could soon enter Canada’s food supply with no labels identifying them as cloned and no warning to consumers—a move that risks public trust.
According to Health Canada’s own consultation documents, Ottawa intends to remove foods derived from cloned animals from its “novel foods” list, the process that requires a pre-market safety review and public disclosure. Health Canada defines “novel
foods” as products that haven’t been commonly consumed before or that use new production processes requiring extra safety checks.
From a regulatory standpoint, this looks like an efficiency measure. From a consumer-trust standpoint, it’s a miscalculation.
Health Canada argues that cloned animals and their offspring are indistinguishable from conventional ones, so they should be treated the same. The problem isn’t the science—it’s the silence. Canadians are not being told that the rules for a controversial technology are about to change. No press release, no public statement, just a quiet update on a government website most citizens will never read.
Cloning in agriculture means producing an exact genetic copy of an animal, usually for breeding purposes. The clones themselves rarely end up on dinner plates, but their offspring do, showing up in everyday products such as beef, milk or pork. The benefits are indirect: steadier production, fewer losses from disease or more uniform quality.
But consumers see no gain at checkout. Cloning is expensive and brings no visible improvement in taste, nutrition or price.
Shoppers could one day buy steak from the offspring of a cloned cow without any way of knowing, and still pay the same, if not more, for it.
Without labels identifying cloned origin, potential efficiencies stay hidden upstream. When products born from new technologies are mixed with conventional ones, consumers lose their ability to differentiate, reward innovation or make an informed choice. In the end, the industry keeps the savings while shoppers see none.
And it isn’t only shoppers left in the dark. Exporters could soon pay the price too. Canada exports billions in beef and pork annually, including to the EU. If cloned origin products enter the supply chain without labelling, Canadian exporters could face additional scrutiny or restrictions in markets where cloning is not accepted. A regulatory shortcut at home could quickly become a market barrier abroad.
This debate comes at a time when public trust in Canada’s food system is already fragile. A 2023 survey by the Canadian Centre for Food Integrity found that only 36 per cent of Canadians believe the food industry is “heading in the right direction,” and fewer than half trust government regulators to be transparent.
Inserting cloned foods quietly into the supply without disclosure would only deepen that skepticism.
This is exactly how Canada became trapped in the endless genetically modified organism (GMO) debate. Two decades ago, regulators and companies quietly introduced a complex technology without giving consumers the chance to understand it. By denying transparency, they also denied trust. The result was years of confusion, suspicion and polarization that persist today.
Transparency shouldn’t be optional in a democracy that prides itself on science based regulation. Even if the food is safe, and current evidence suggests it is, Canadians deserve to know how what they eat is produced.
The irony is that this change could have been handled responsibly. Small gestures like a brief notice, an explanatory Q&A or a commitment to review labelling once international consensus emerges would have shown respect for the public and preserved confidence in our food system.
Instead, Ottawa risks repeating an old mistake: mistaking regulatory efficiency for good governance. At a time when consumer trust in food pricing, corporate ethics and government oversight is already fragile, the last thing Canada needs is another quiet policy that feels like a secret.
Cloning may not change the look or taste of what’s on your plate, but how it gets there should still matter.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.
Troy Media empowers Canadian community news outlets by providing independent, insightful analysis and commentary. Our mission is to support local media in helping Canadians stay informed and engaged by delivering reliable content that strengthens community connections and deepens understanding across the country.
Former Minister of Agriculture Gerry Ritz wonders who’s really in control
Canadians have been watching with increasing anger and outrage. The world has been watching with disbelief that a once great democracy could have become a petty dictatorship where the rule of law is ignored by a government agency – and hence, by the federal government itself – that believes it has impunity from the law and is above that law.
I have been writing about the disaster unfolding in Edgewood, BC for six months now. The problems began almost a year ago at Universal Ostrich Farms with an outbreak of what was believed to be avian flu. The crisis erupted when the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) and the RCMP invaded and occupied the farm almost four weeks ago. The death squad came to kill 399 ostriches. They expected no opposition. They got plenty. Then the Supreme Court of Canada agreed to consider the farm’s appeal of a recent decision by the federal court to allow the “cull” to continue despite there being absolutely no reason for doing so. As has been noted, the CFIA steadfastly refuses to test the ostriches for avian flu.
The court ordered a stay of execution.
The CFIA has brazenly but systematically taken over this farm and is doing everything to impair the health and end the lives of the remaining birds.
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It made perfect sense since the birds are healthy and have been for well over 260 days.
But the CFIA has ignored the court’s order and continued with an unofficial, piecemeal execution of the ostriches. The herd has diminished by perhaps 100 birds since the CFIA was given “custody” of the birds and the farm owners have not been allowed to feed or care for their ostriches and have instead had to trust the CFIA to do that. It was obvious from the start that these bureaucratic goons were doing anything but and in fact were cruelly mistreating the birds because, after all, they think this court order is just a temporary setback. So not only is the evidence of cruelty mounting, it is becoming obvious that the CFIA is continuing to kill the birds and remove their carcasses from the farm in dumpsters.
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Former Minister of Agriculture Gerry Ritz was also an ostrich farmer at one time in his busy life. He was also minister for eight years during the administration of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and he knows how the CFIA works – and doesn’t work. He has been following the saga at Universal Ostrich Farms very closely.
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“I think it’s become a debacle. The world is watching, and there’s no accountability for anything that’s being done out there. There’s a stay before the Supreme Court, but while that stay is in place, the CFIA has moved ahead with impunity to do whatever they think they’re going to need to do in the end. And I think that’s just morally and ethically wrong … They’ve gone way beyond any kind of budget capacity. They’re outspending anything I’ve ever seen them try to do,” said Ritz
“They’ve gone sideways again, and no one is calling them to task. There’s a number of people on social media. No one in the mainstream, other than, you know, “This Hour Has 22 minutes” that did a skit the other day, which I found was completely tasteless and offside. Well, that’s what they do, but at the end of the day this is a science-based organization, and I don’t see any science here. They have an opportunity to test the birds, and they refuse to do that.”
“I think it’s become a debacle. The world is watching, and there’s no accountability for anything that’s being done out there,” said Gerry Ritz
The video evidence of the neglect, maltreatment and cruelty is abundant. The CFIA has not only banned the family farm of Dave Bilinksy, Karen Espersen and her daughter Katie Pasitney from feeding the ostriches, these thugs are reluctant to do that task for them and the birds are clearly not just hungry but starving. The CFIA should have been charged weeks ago for violating basic animal cruelty laws. They should also be held accountable for treating an order from the Supreme Court of Canada with the same seriousness as an order at a fastfood restaurant.
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The CFIA has even occupied an adjacent farm simply because they wanted to build a road that would allow them to bypass the protesters on the farm and continue to do their work in secret. They have established an execution pen of hay bales inside a fenced-off area of the farm that the farm owners cannot enter. Katie and her family have lost control of their livestock, their farm and their livelihood. The CFIA is conducting its clandestine and dirty work with complete impunity. No one has been charged with cruelty, they operate above the law and control the scope of work performed by the police.
So, while the farm waits to discover the decision of the Supreme Court, time is potentially running out for the ostriches. When we learned that the court would not be responding for at least two weeks after Thanksgiving, it seemed like a good omen. Two weeks to continue to consolidate public opinion against the slaughter. Two weeks to demonstrate that this form of government overreach was not just directed at one farm or one herd of ostriches but against all farmers, all property owners, anyone who has a dog or a cat at home. The CFIA has brazenly but systematically taken over this farm and is doing everything to impair the health and end the lives of the remaining birds.
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There may not be a single ostrich left by the time the Supreme Court decides whether to hear the case or not. It may be a moot point and a decision without any purpose because the CFIA might have already disposed of all the ostriches, without any fear of legal consequences.
This story would be sufficiently tragic if it were only about the invasion and occupation of a family farm and the completely irrational and unnecessary decision to kill almost 400 ostriches. But it is about much more than that. It is about the Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney having no respect for private property or the livelihood of farmers.
Ritz says it’s a toss-up between whether the CFIA has become a rogue agency or an agency following the orders of rogue federal government. “ think a little bit of both. Human nature tends to let you run wild if no one’s looking over your shoulder.”
“I cannot, for the like me, understand why SPCA aren’t screaming, you know, a lot more pushback than we’re seeing. Certainly they’re continuing to move ahead full steam, even while the Supreme Court decides whether they have this. [They’ve] decided to hear it, I understand, but at the end of the day, there’ll be nothing left to hear by the time they get there.”
This story would be sufficiently tragic if it were only about the invasion and occupation of a family farm and the completely irrational and unnecessary decision to kill almost 400 ostriches. But it is about much more than that. It is about the Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney having no respect for private property or the livelihood of farmers. It is about a sanguinary government agency that has virtually nothing to do with public health but everything to do with killing animals. It is about the absolute refusal to the CFIA to test the birds for avian flu because the CFIA does not want to be caught in a lie or admit that herd immunity is far more effective than the vaccines that big pharma wants to sell and the Liberal government is clearly benefitting from.
This story is about your family farm, your house and backyard being occupied by the government with a trumped-up “warrant to search.” It is about your farmyard animals or your dog and cat being seized and killed by the CFIA because they say it is necessary. It is about a ravenous federal government not just “stamping out” healthy ostriches but stamping out basic liberties in Canada.
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Combined with the Carney government’s obsession to censor social media, confiscate a myriad of firearms from law-abiding gun owners who are largely farmers and establish a digital ID, the tragedy at the ostrich farm is about how a country that used to respect the rule of law and democratic protocol has slid into authoritarian rule that far too few Canadians tried to stop. We know the Carney government is heavily invested in avain flu vaccines that were purchased from the UK’s GSK. Is Mark Carney personally invested?
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Sources: https://x.com/TIME/status/
Does Ritz think this is all about doing the bidding of big pharma?
“Well, I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I mean, when the chips start to fall on one side of the table, you really have to be conscious of where they’re piling up. And in this case, there’s a lot of unanswered questions. I just don’t understand how this has gotten as far as it has without some of those things being addressed,” he said asking, “Why are they refusing to test these birds?”
He noted that the cost of testing was about $100,000 when there were 399 birds still alive. “Now there are fewer. Why that would be an impediment when they’re probably spending that per day with everything they’re doing? Would that not be the ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card for the CFIA and the RCMP to back away and say, ‘Hey, we’ve tested them. Now everything’s fine. We’re good,’” Ritz continued.
“So why they won’t test baffles the crap out of me, and that’s where, as minister, Heath MacDonald should step in and say, ‘Just get it done.’ It takes a few minutes per bird. They’ve already got the system to line them up and run them through. So why aren’t they doing that? I just can’t believe that they’re passing up this opportunity to build the science unless there’s someone calling the shots behind them who doesn’t want the science revealed.”
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