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Energy Effect: Trump’s big win fuels talk of policy actions

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From The Center Square

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“Our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over because energy was on the ballot in 2024, and energy won”

Former President Donald Trump is on track to potentially receive 300 electoral votes or more. He won the national popular vote by about 5 million with votes still being counted. As a result, some analysts and Republicans say Trump and the GOP have a “mandate” to aggressively push forward with their agenda.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said in his speech early Wednesday morning, creating a refrain echoed by his supporters.

As of midday Wednesday, Trump secured 292 electoral votes after Michigan and its 15 votes were called – 270 were needed to win the race. He also leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Alaska, Arizona and Nevada.

If Trump holds in those states, he will have 312 electoral votes, propelled in large part due to a level of support from Black voters and Hispanic voters unusual for a Republican.

“The American people have sent a clear message through President Trump’s resounding victory,” U.S. Sen. Thom Thillis, R-N.C., wrote on X. “The mandate is clear: fix the economy, secure the border, keep America safe, and confirm more judges who follow the Constitution.”

At the same time Wednesday, House Republicans had won 198 House racers and Democrats had won 177 with the rest uncalled; 218 are needed to win a majority. In the Senate, Republicans won 52 seats and Democrats won 42 with six still to be called, flipping the upper chamber to GOP control.

“This is a mandate,” Scott Jennings, an alum of the George W. Bush administration and CNN analyst said on the air as results came in early Wednesday morning.

“He won the national popular vote for the first time for a Republican since 2004,” Jennings said. “This is a big deal. This isn’t backing into the office. This is a mandate to do what you said you were going to do. Get the economy working again for regular, working class Americans. Fix immigration. Try to get crime under control. Try to reduce the chaos in the world. This is a mandate from the American people to do that.”

On economic policy, Trump is expected to double down on domestic oil drilling to increase revenue for the U.S. and lower energy costs for Americans. Trump made inflation a focus of his campaign, pledging to use domestic oil to get costs down for Americans and even pay off debt with the tax revenue.

“Our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over because energy was on the ballot in 2024, and energy won,” said Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of energy worker advocacy group Power The Future. “On day one, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fired thousands of Keystone XL workers and thankfully starting in January it’s this administration that will be unemployed.”

Republicans have also vowed tax reform, something they prioritized after Trump came into office last time around. Experts said the market reacted favorably to Trump’s win.

“Trump’s election victory sparked a rally in the greenback last night as growth and inflation expectations rerated higher,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a statement. “Fed funds futures dialed back rate cut expectations from five to four 0.25% cuts by the end of next year. Yields surged higher, a move further exacerbated by deficit spending concerns, especially if Republicans secure the House.”

Trump also pledged to quickly negotiate an end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, something that earned him bipartisan support from many Americans, including Arab and Muslim Americans frustrated by the Biden-Harris handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Pop culture figure and Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy told his 3.3 million followers the win was a “ringing endorsement of Republicans” and “an indictment against the Democrats,” using a familiar message analysts across platforms online and on television.

That perception will be key for Republicans who likely have two years to push through a legislative agenda as reports indicate they will have a majority in the Senate and possibly the House.

Polls showed only 28% of Americans felt the country was headed in the right direction, something incumbent Harris could not overcome.

“I wanted Trump to win, but more than that, I wanted a decisive victory,” Newsweek Opinion Editor Batya Ungar-Sargon wrote on X. “If it’s true he’s won the popular vote, that is a mandate to lead. Calling Trump Hitler is now proven to be what it always was: an unforgivable smear of the majority of Americans. It’s time to embrace unity.”

While Harris delayed in recognizing Trump as the winner, still not conceding as of early Wednesday afternoon, his other fiercest opponents, like former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, recognized him on X but offered a warning.

“Our nation’s democratic system functioned last night and we have a new President-elect,” said Cheney, a Republican who campaigned with Democrat Harris on the trail. “All Americans are bound, whether we like the outcome or not, to accept the results of our elections. We now have a special responsibility, as citizens of the greatest nation on earth, to do everything we can to support and defend our Constitution, preserve the rule of law, and ensure that our institutions hold over these coming four years.”

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Energy

Global fossil fuel use rising despite UN proclamations

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From the Fraser Institute

By Julio Mejía and Elmira Aliakbari

Major energy transitions are slow and take centuries, not decades… the first global energy transition—from traditional biomass fuels (including wood and charcoal) to fossil fuels—started more than two centuries ago and remains incomplete. Nearly three billion people in the developing world still depend on charcoal, straw and dried dung for cooking and heating, accounting for about 7 per cent of the world’s energy supply (as of 2020).

At the Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Azerbaijan, António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, last week called for a global net-zero carbon footprint by 2050, which requires a “fossil fuel phase-out” and “deep decarbonization across the entire value chain.”

Yet despite the trillions of dollars already spent globally pursuing this target—and the additional trillions projected as necessary to “end the era of fossil fuels”—the world’s dependence on fossil fuels has remained largely unchanged.

So, how realistic is a “net-zero” emissions world—which means either eliminating fossil fuel generation or offsetting carbon emissions with activities such as planting trees—by 2050?

The journey began in 1995 when the UN hosted the first COP conference in Berlin, launching a global effort to drive energy transition and decarbonization. That year, global investment in renewable energy reached US$7 billion, according to some estimates. Since then, an extraordinary amount of money and resources have been allocated to the transition away from fossil fuels.

According to the International Energy Agency, between 2015 and 2023 alone, governments and industry worldwide spent US$12.3 trillion (inflation-adjusted) on clean energy. For context, that’s over six times the value of the entire Canadian economy in 2023.

Despite this spending, between 1995 and 2023, global fossil fuel consumption increased by 62 per cent, with oil consumption rising by 38 per cent, coal by 66 per cent and natural gas by 90 per cent.

And during that same 28-year period, despite the trillions spent on energy alternatives, the share of global energy provided by fossil fuels declined by only four percentage points, from 85.6 per cent to 81.5 per cent.

This should come as no surprise. Major energy transitions are slow and take centuries, not decades. According to a recent study by renowned scholar Vaclav Smil, the first global energy transition—from traditional biomass fuels (including wood and charcoal) to fossil fuels—started more than two centuries ago and remains incomplete. Nearly three billion people in the developing world still depend on charcoal, straw and dried dung for cooking and heating, accounting for about 7 per cent of the world’s energy supply (as of 2020).

Moreover, coal only surpassed wood as the main energy source worldwide around 1900. It took more than 150 years from oil’s first commercial extraction for oil to reach 25 per cent of all fossil fuels consumed worldwide. Natural gas didn’t reach this threshold until the end of the 20th century, after 130 years of industry development.

Now, consider the current push by governments to force an energy transition via regulation and spending. In Canada, the Trudeau government has set a target to fully decarbonize electricity generation by 2035 so all electricity is derived from renewable power sources such as wind and solar. But merely replacing Canada’s existing fossil fuel-based electricity with clean energy sources within the next decade would require building the equivalent of 23 major hydro projects (like British Columbia’s Site C) or 2.3 large-scale nuclear power plants (like Ontario’s Bruce Power). The planning and construction of significant electricity generation infrastructure in Canada is a complex and time-consuming process, often plagued by delays, regulatory hurdles and substantial cost overruns.

The Site C project took around 43 years from initial feasibility studies in 1971 to securing environmental certification in 2014. Construction began on the Peace River in northern B.C. in 2015, with completion expected in 2025 at a cost of at least $16 billion. Similarly, Ontario’s Bruce Power plant took nearly two decades to complete, with billions in cost overruns. Given these immense practical, financial and regulatory challenges, achieving the government’s 2035 target is highly improbable.

As politicians gather at high-profile conferences and set ambitious targets for a swift energy transition, global reliance on fossil fuels has continued to increase. As things stand, achieving net-zero by 2050 appears neither realistic nor feasible.

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Energy

What does a Trump presidency means for Canadian energy?

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From Resource Works

Heather-Exner Pirot of the Business Council of Canada and the Macdonald-Laurier Institute spoke with Resource Works about the transition to Donald Trump’s energy policy, hopes for Keystone XL’s revival, EVs, and more. 

Do you think it is accurate to say that Trump’s energy policy will be the complete opposite of Joe Biden’s? Or will it be more nuanced than that?

It’s more nuanced than that. US oil and gas production did grow under Biden, as it did under Obama. It’s actually at record levels right now. The US is producing the most oil and gas per day that any nation has ever produced in the history of the world.

That said, the federal government in the US has imposed relatively little control over production. In the absence of restrictive emissions and climate policies that we have in Canada, most of the oil production decisions have been made based on market forces. With prices where they’re at currently, there’s not a lot of shareholder appetite to grow that significantly.

The few areas you can expect change: leasing more federal lands and off shore areas for oil and gas development; rescinding the pause in LNG export permits; eliminating the new methane fee; and removing Biden’s ambitious vehicle fuel efficiency standards, which would subsequently maintain gas demand.

I would say on nuclear energy, there won’t be a reversal, as that file has earned bipartisan support. If anything, a Trump Admin would push regulators to approve SMRs models and projects faster. They want more of all kinds of energy.

Is Keystone XL a dead letter, or is there enough planning and infrastructure still in-place to restart that project?

I haven’t heard any appetite in the private sector to restart that in the short term. I know Alberta is pushing it. I do think it makes sense for North American energy security – energy dominance, as the Trump Admin calls – and I believe there is a market for more Canadian oil in the USA; it makes economic sense. But it’s still looked at as too politically risky for investors.

To have it move forward I think you would need some government support to derisk it. A TMX model, even. And clear evidence of social license and bipartisan support so it can survive the next election on both sides of the border.

Frankly, Northern Gateway is the better project for Canada to restart, under a Conservative government.

Keystone XL was cancelled by Biden prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Do you think that the reshoring/friendshoring of the energy supply is a far bigger priority now?

It absolutely is a bigger priority. But it’s also a smaller threat. You need to appreciate that North America has become much more energy independent and secure than it has ever been. Both US and Canada are producing at record levels. Combined, we now produce more than the Middle East (41 million boe/d vs 38 million boe/d). And Canada has taken a growing share of US imports (now 60%) even as their import levels have declined.

But there are two risks on the horizon: the first is that oil is a non renewable resource and the US is expected to reach a peak in shale oil production in the next few years. No one wants to go back to the days when OPEC + had dominant market power. I think there will be a lot of demand for Canadian oil to fill the gap left by any decline in US oil production. And Norway’s production is expected to peak imminently as well.

The second is the need from our allies for LNG. Europe is still dependent on Russia for natural gas, energy demand is growing in Asia, and high industrial energy costs are weighing on both. More and cheaper LNG from North America is highly important for the energy security of our allies, and thus the western alliance as it faces a challenge from Russia, China and Iran.

Canada has little choice but to follow the US lead on many issues such as EVs and tariffs on China. Regarding energy policy, does Canada’s relative strength in the oil and gas sector give it a stronger hand when it comes to having an independent energy policy?

I don’t think we want an independent energy policy. I would argue we both benefit from alignment and interdependence. And we’ve built up that interdependence on the infrastructure side over decades: pipelines, refineries, transmission, everything.

That interdependence gives us a stronger hand in other areas of the economy. Any tariffs on Canadian energy would absolutely not be in American’s interests in terms of their energy dominance agenda. Trump wants to drop energy costs, not hike them.

I think we can leverage tariff exemptions in energy to other sectors, such as manufacturing, which is more vulnerable. But you have to make the case for why that makes sense for US, not just Canada. And that’s because we need as much industrial capacity in the west as we can muster to counter China and Russia. America First is fine, but this is not the time for America Alone.

Do you see provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan being more on-side with the US than the federal government when it comes to energy?

Of course. The North American capital that is threatening their economic interests is not Washington DC; it’s Ottawa.

I think you are seeing some recognition – much belated and fast on the heels of an emissions cap that could shut in over 2 million boe of production! – that what makes Canada important to the United States and in the world is our oil and gas and uranium and critical minerals and agricultural products.

We’ve spent almost a decade constraining those sectors. There is no doubt a Trump Admin will be complicated, but at the very least it’s clarified how important those sectors are to our soft and hard power.

It’s not too late for Canada to flex its muscles on the world stage and use its resources to advance our national interests, and our allies’ interests. In fact, it’s absolutely critical that we do so.

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