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With our economy becalmed, Good Ship Canada needs a new captain

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From the MacDonald Laurier Institute

By Jack M. Mintz

Output has been stagnant for five years now. Canada is ‘as idle as a painted ship upon a painted ocean’

One of my favourite poems is Samuel Coleridge’s “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner.” It describes a ship driven by storms towards the South Pole. An albatross saves the ship and crew but the Ancient Mariner kills it, an act of cruelty for which he is later punished, including by having to repeat the story to strangers for the rest of his life.

It is the verse “Day after day, day after day,/ We stuck, nor breath nor motion;/ As idle as a painted ship/ Upon a painted ocean” that became one of my favourites. It comes back to me periodically when life seems stalled.

Which is the case with Canada these days. Our economy is at a standstill. Interest rates are up and inflation, though trending down, remains stubbornly high. Real GDP growth these past four quarters (August 2022 to August 2023) was a feeble 0.9 per cent. Any growth we do have is from a policy-driven population expansion of close to three per cent. But per capita GDP actually fell 2.1 per cent over that period, which means Canadians are poorer today than they were a year ago.

And it’s not just this year. Canada has been a “painted ship on a painted ocean” for some time.  From January 2018 to June of this year, our GDP per capita was flat, according to OECD data released this week. Add in July and August and Canada’s per capita real GDP has declined slightly — from $52,300 in January 2018 to $51,900 in August (in 2012 dollars).

With the pandemic and surging inflation after 2020, you might think other countries’ economies are also becalmed. But they aren’t. U.S. per capita real GDP is up 2.4 per cent over the past year and up 9.3 per cent since January 2018, from US$61,500 to US$67,200 (again in 2012 dollars). At today’s exchange rate, Canada’s per capita GDP is now just 56 per cent of America’s — ouch!

Nor is it just the U.S. we’re slipping behind. Compared to our own slight decline in real per capita GDP since 2018, the OECD average is up 5.6 per cent, though there’s considerable variation across countries. For example, resource-rich Australia’s real per capita GDP was up only 4.8 per cent — which was still better than here — but superstar Ireland’s was up fully 31.0 per cent.

Let’s face it: Sir Wilfrid Laurier’s famous 1904 prediction that “For the next 100 years, Canada shall be the star towards which all men who love progress and freedom shall come” seems hollow these days. It is not that we don’t have the potential to shine; it’s that we so often fail to. We do still attract immigrants, but they often leave — as much as 20 per cent of a cohort over 25 years according to the Conference Board. And if salaries here keep falling behind those in the U.S., will we still be able to attract the best and brightest?

Canada has always been a trading nation but exports as a share of GDP have been relatively flat this past decade. The oil and gas sector has been our most important source of export earnings, surpassing even motor vehicles and parts, but since 2015 the Trudeau government has actively discouraged its growth.

We have had our share of innovations over the years but R&D spending has slipped back to the same share of GDP as it was in 1998. It seems the only way for Canada to develop new things is to subsidize them to the hilt with multi-billion grants like the ones given this past year to three different battery manufacturers.

Our health-care system is a shambles, with long waiting lines and not enough doctors and health professionals. One index ranks Canada’s health system as only 32nd best among 166 countries (with Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Israel ranking highest). We know what the problems are, but we seemingly don’t have the will to fix them.

Our tax system is a mess, with high rates and far too many ineffective incentives. Canada now has one of the highest top personal income tax rates in the world but applies it at much lower incomes than elsewhere, beginning at only twice the average wage. One important driver of U.S. growth was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which bolstered investment by 20 per cent, as shown in important research released last month.

We are a free rider in defence and security spending, at only 1.29 per cent of GDP, well below the minimum two per cent needed to fulfil our NATO obligations. Our financial contribution to modernize NORAD is lacking despite the growing importance of the Arctic to Russia and China. We have contributed little in the way of advanced weaponry or tanks to our allies in Eastern Europe or the Middle East. Europe is desperate for natural gas but instead of buying it from us it is having to import it from Qatar.

While regional tensions have always been a major part of Canadian history, we seem to have lost all sight of nation-building. National infrastructure projects are absent. Provincial trade barriers undermine internal growth but are hard to remove. Alberta, angry with a federal government intent on shackling its energy industry, is ready to pull out of the national social security system. Quebec is drastically hiking tuition fees on students from the rest of Canada who attend its anglophone universities.

To fulfill its remarkable potential, this country cannot remain a painted ship upon a painted ocean. Someone needs to move the ship forward.

Alberta

Alberta fiscal update: second quarter is outstanding, challenges ahead

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Alberta maintains a balanced budget while ensuring pressures from population growth are being addressed.

Alberta faces rising risks, including ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability and rising pressures at home. With more than 450,000 people moving to Alberta in the last three years, the province has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to address these pressures and ensure Albertans continue to be supported. Alberta’s government is determined to make every dollar go further with targeted and responsible spending on the priorities of Albertans.

The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.

Given the current significant uncertainty in global geopolitics and energy markets, Alberta’s government must continue to make prudent choices to meet its responsibilities, including ongoing bargaining for thousands of public sector workers, fast-tracking school construction, cutting personal income taxes and ensuring Alberta’s surging population has access to high-quality health care, education and other public services.

“These are challenging times, but I believe Alberta is up to the challenge. By being intentional with every dollar, we can boost our prosperity and quality of life now and in the future.”

Nate Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance

Midway through 2024-25, the province has stepped up to boost support to Albertans this fiscal year through key investments, including:

  • $716 million to Health for physician compensation incentives and to help Alberta Health Services provide services to a growing and aging population.
  • $125 million to address enrollment growth pressures in Alberta schools.
  • $847 million for disaster and emergency assistance, including:
    • $647 million to fight the Jasper wildfires
    • $163 million for the Wildfire Disaster Recovery Program
    • $5 million to support the municipality of Jasper (half to help with tourism recovery)
    • $12 million to match donations to the Canadian Red Cross
    • $20 million for emergency evacuation payments to evacuees in communities impacted by wildfires
  • $240 million more for Seniors, Community and Social Services to support social support programs.

Looking forward, the province has adjusted its forecast for the price of oil to US$74 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. It expects to earn more for its crude oil, with a narrowing of the light-heavy differential around US$14 per barrel, higher demand for heavier crude grades and a growing export capacity through the Trans Mountain pipeline. Despite these changes, Alberta still risks running a deficit in the coming fiscal year should oil prices continue to drop below $70 per barrel.

After a 4.4 per cent surge in the 2024 census year, Alberta’s population growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, lower than the first quarter forecast of 3.2 per cent growth because of reduced immigration and non-permanent residents targets by the federal government.

Revenue

Revenue for 2024-25 is forecast at $77.9 billion, an increase of $4.4 billion from Budget 2024, including:

  • $16.6 billion forecast from personal income taxes, up from $15.6 billion at budget.
  • $20.3 billion forecast from non-renewable resource revenue, up from $17.3 billion at budget.

Expense

Expense for 2024-25 is forecast at $73.3 billion, an increase of $143 million from Budget 2024.

Surplus cash

After calculations and adjustments, $2.9 billion in surplus cash is forecast.

  • $1.4 billion or half will pay debt coming due.
  • The other half, or $1.4 billion, will be put into the Alberta Fund, which can be spent on further debt repayment, deposited into the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund and/or spent on one-time initiatives.

Contingency

Of the $2 billion contingency included in Budget 2024, a preliminary allocation of $1.7 billion is forecast.

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund grew in the second quarter to a market value of $24.3 billion as of Sept. 30, 2024, up from $23.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

  • The fund earned a 3.7 per cent return from July to September with a net investment income of $616 million, up from the 2.1 per cent return during the first quarter.

Debt

Taxpayer-supported debt is forecast at $84 billion as of March 31, 2025, $3.8 billion less than estimated in the budget because the higher surplus has lowered borrowing requirements.

  • Debt servicing costs are forecast at $3.2 billion, down $216 million from budget.

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Trump’s government efficiency department plans to cut $500 Billion in unauthorized expenditures, including funding for Planned Parenthood

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From LifeSiteNews

By Emily Mangiaracina

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy shared their plans to ‘take aim’ at ‘500 billion plus’ in federal expenses, including ‘nearly $300 million’ to ‘progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.’

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are planning to ax taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood as part of their forthcoming work for the next Trump administration, they revealed in a Wednesday op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. 

The businessmen have been appointed by President Donald Trump to lead a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which will work from outside the official government structure to cut wasteful government spending and excess regulations, as well as “restructure federal agencies,” as Trump announced last week on Truth Social.

Musk and Ramaswamy shared Wednesday that as part of their work at DOGE to downsize government spending, they will be “taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended,” thereby “delivering cost savings for taxpayers.”

They specifically called out Planned Parenthood as one institution that will lose taxpayer funding once DOGE kicks into gear. In their op-ed, the duo said the federal expenditures they plan on cutting includes the “nearly $300 million” dedicated “to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.”

Musk and Ramaswamy also reportedly will take aim at the “$535 million a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5 billion for grants to international organizations,” according to Catholic Vote, although they have not shared all of the federal spending they plan to cut or reduce.

“With a decisive electoral mandate and a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, DOGE has a historic opportunity for structural reductions in the federal government,” the business duo wrote. “We are prepared for the onslaught from entrenched interests in Washington. We expect to prevail.”

Mogul and X owner Musk, who was outspoken before his DOGE appointment about the big problem of waste, noted last week that if the government is not made efficient, the country will go “bankrupt.”

He reposted a clip from a recent talk he gave in which he explained that not only is our defense budget “pretty gigantic” — a trillion dollars —but the interest the U.S. now owes on its debt is higher than this.

“This is not sustainable. That’s why we need the Department of Government Efficiency,” Musk said.

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