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Alberta

April 30th: Premier Kenney releases Alberta’s Relaunch Strategy

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From the Province of Alberta

Below is the full release and information on Alberta’s phased relaunch plan

 

Alberta’s safely staged COVID-19 relaunch

A phased relaunch will put Albertans’ safety first as we gradually reopen closed businesses and services and get people back to work.

“I’m confident Albertans will approach relaunch with the same adaptability and resilience they have shown throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We will move forward together with care and common sense, knowing tough times are still ahead. We will support and protect vulnerable Albertans and keep them safe as we build our province back up one stage at a time.” Jason Kenney, Premier

It is because Albertans have acted responsibly, respecting public health advice, that we have been able to limit the spread of COVID-19, keep localized outbreaks within the capacity of our health-care system, and now take the first incremental steps to reopen some businesses and services.

Early actions

The plan to move forward requires careful and ongoing monitoring and respecting all guidelines outlined by the chief medical officer of health:

  • Alberta Health Services will resume some scheduled, non- urgent surgeries as soon as May 4.
  • Dental and other health-care workers, such as physiotherapists, speech language pathologists, respiratory therapists, audiologists, social workers, occupational therapists, dieticians and more, will be allowed to resume services starting May 4, as long as they are following approved guidelines set by their professional colleges.

    Alberta Parks’ online reservation system will be available May 14th. Photo by Government of Alberta

Recognizing the role that access to the outdoors and recreation in the outdoors plays to Albertans’ sense of well- being, access to provincial parks and public lands will be re- opened using a phased approach, beginning with:

  • Vehicle access to parking lots and staging areas in parks and on public lands opening May 1.
  • Opening a number of boat launches in provincial parks on May 1 and working to have them all open by May 14. Check albertaparks.ca for the status of boat launches.
  • Government is working hard to make campsites available as soon as possible, with the goal to have as many open as possible by June 1 so Albertans can enjoy our parks while adhering to current health orders. At this time, sites are open to Albertans only. Check albertaparks.ca for updates.
  • Group and comfort camping will not be offered. Campground facility access restrictions to areas such as showers, picnic and cooking shelters will also be posted to albertaparks.ca.
  • Alberta Parks’ online reservation system will be available May 14 to book site visits beginning June 1. Out-of-province bookings will not be processed.
  • No washrooms or garbage pickup will be available within provincial parks at this time. These services will be available as soon as Alberta Environment and Parks brings staff back. These seasonal positions represent an important opportunity for Albertans to secure employment during challenging economic times.
  • Fire bans in parks, protected areas and the Forest Protection Area remain in place.
  • No off-highway vehicle restrictions are currently in place. Local restrictions may be required if the risk for wildfires increases.
  • Private and municipal campgrounds and parks can open with physical distancing restrictions, under their own local authority.
  • Golf courses can open on May 4, with restrictions including keeping clubhouses and pro shops closed. On-site shops and restaurants can open in stage one, consistent with other businesses and retailers.

    Golf courses can open May 4, with restrictions including keeping clubhouses and pro shops closed. (Photo Courtesy/City of Edmonton)

Requirements to move to next stage; Additional restrictions will be lifted in stages when safe.

Before we move to stage one, several safeguards will be put in place:

  • Enhancing our nation-leading COVID-19 testing capacity at the highest level in Canada.
  • Robust and comprehensive contact tracing, aided by technology, to quickly notify people who may have been exposed.
  • Support for those who test positive for COVID-19, to enable isolation and effectively contain the spread.
  • Stronger international border controls and airport screening, especially for international travellers.
  • Rules and guidance for the use of masks in crowded spaces, especially on mass transit.
  • Maintaining strong protections for the most vulnerable, including those in long-term care, continuing care and seniors lodges.

A rapid response plan is in place in the event of possible outbreaks of COVID-19. This includes outbreak protocols to quickly identify close contacts in order to stop spread, making testing widely available including testing those without symptoms in outbreak settings, and providing temporary housing for isolation and other necessary supports for anyone at risk.

Physical distancing requirements of two metres will remain in place through all stages of relaunch and hygiene practices will continue to be required of businesses and individuals, along with instructions for Albertans to stay home when exhibiting symptoms such as cough, fever, shortness of breath, runny nose, or sore throat.

Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw speaks about the current COVID-19 situation in Alberta.

“There are signs that our collective efforts of physical distancing, good hygiene practices, and staying home when advised are helping to slow the spread. However, we must guard against complacency and be patient to ensure the sacrifices we have already made to contain the virus are not wasted by carelessness as we gradually reopen businesses and services.” Deena Hinshaw, chief medical officer of health

Further opening in stages

Progress to Stage 1 will occur once health measures are achieved to the satisfaction of the government based on the advice of the chief medical officer of health, as early as May 14.

Stage 1 highlights:

With increased infection prevention and controls, to minimize the risk of increased transmission of infections, some businesses and facilities can start to gradually resume operations as early as May 14:

  • Post-secondary institutions will continue to deliver courses, however how programs are delivered – whether online, in-person, or a blend – will be dependent on what restrictions remain in place at each relaunch phase.
  • The use of masks will be strongly recommended in certain specific crowded public spaces, like mass transit, that do not allow for physical distancing (two metres apart).

Still not permitted in stage 1:

  • Gatherings of more than 15 people. (Gatherings of 15 people or fewer must follow personal distancing and other public health guidelines.)

    Gatherings of more than 15 people. (Gatherings of 15 people or fewer must follow personal distancing and other public health guidelines.)

  • Arts and culture festivals, major sporting events, and concerts, all of which involve close physical contact.
  • Movie theatres, theatres, pools, recreation centres, arenas, spas, gyms and nightclubs will remain closed.
  • Visitors to patients at health-care facilities will continue to be limited.
  • In-school classes for kindergarten to Grade 12 students.

Recommendations:

  • Non-essential travel, especially travel outside the province, is not recommended.
  • Remote working is advised where possible.

Stage 2 highlights:

  • Timing of this stage will be determined by the success of Stage 1, considering the capacity of the health-care system and continued limiting and/or reduction of the rate of infections, hospitalization and ICU cases.
  • Will allow additional businesses and services to reopen and resume operations with two metre physical distancing requirements and other public health guidelines in place. This includes:
  • Potential kindergarten to Grade 12 schools, with restrictions.
  • More scheduled surgeries, including backlog elimination.
  • Personal services, such as artificial tanning, esthetics, cosmetic skin and body treatments, manicures, pedicures, waxing, facial treatments, massage and reflexology.
  • Permitting of some larger gatherings (number of people to be determined as we learn more about the levels of risk for different activities) in some situations.
  • Movie theatres and theatres open with restrictions.

Visitors to patients at health-care facilities will continue to be limited.

Still not permitted in stage 2:

  • Nightclubs, gyms, pools, recreation centres, and arenas will remain closed.
  • Arts and culture festivals, concerts, attendance at major sporting events and other mass gatherings will continue to not be permitted.

    Major sporting events and other mass gatherings will continue to not be permitted in Stage 2. Stage 3 dates are TBA. Dale McMillan Photography

Recommendations:

  • Non-essential travel is not recommended.

Stage 3 highlights:

Timing of this stage is to be determined based on the success of stages 1 and 2 and will involve:

  • Fully reopening all businesses and services, with some limited restrictions still in place.
  • Permitting larger gatherings (number of people to be determined).
  • Permitting arts and culture festivals, concerts and major sporting events with some restrictions.
  • Permitting nightclubs, gyms, pools, recreation centres and arenas to reopen with restrictions.
  • Resuming industry conferences with restrictions.
  • No restrictions on non-essential travel.

    Under Stage 3 there will be no restrictions on non-essential travel. Tom Braid Photo

Quick facts

  • Relaunch stages will also include an evaluation and monitoring period to determine if restrictions should be adjusted up or down. Triggers that will inform decisions on the lessening or tightening of restrictions include hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy.
  • Confirmed cases and rates of new infections will be monitored on an ongoing basis to inform proactive responses in localized areas of the province.
  • Decisions will be applied at both provincial and local levels, where necessary. While restrictions are gradually eased across the province, an outbreak may mean that they need to be strengthened temporarily in a local area.
  • Faith-based organizations are an essential part of the lives of Albertans. They continue to be able to practice, subject to public health direction, including mass gatherings and physical distancing. Government is working with faith-based organizations to learn from past outbreaks and provide guidance related to specific practices including singing and other traditions to ensure safety while supporting social connection.

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Alberta

Alberta Income Tax cut is great but balanced budgets are needed

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By Kris Sims 

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is applauding the Alberta government for giving Albertans a huge income tax cut in Budget 2025, but is strongly warning against its dive into debt by running a deficit.

“Premier Danielle Smith keeping her promise to cut Alberta’s income tax is great news, because it means huge savings for most working families,” said Kris Sims, CTF Alberta Director. “Families are fighting to afford basics right now, and if they can save more than $1,500 per year thanks to this big tax cut, that would cover a month’s rent or more than a month’s worth of groceries.”

Finance Minister Nate Horner announced, effective this fiscal year, Alberta will drop its lowest income tax rate to eight per cent, down from 10 per cent, for the first $60,000 of earnings.

The government estimates this income tax cut will save the average Alberta worker about $750 per year, or more than $1,500 per year for a two-person working family.

Albertans earning less than $60,000 a year will see a 20 per cent reduction to their annual provincial income tax bill.

The budget also contained some bad news.

The province is running a $5.2 billion deficit in 2025-26 and the government is planning to keep running deficits for two more years.

Total spending has gone up from $73.1 billion from last budget to $79.3 billion this year, an increase of 8.4 per cent.

“If the government had frozen spending at last year’s budget level, the province could have a $1 billion surplus and still cut the income tax,” said Sims. “The debt is going up over the next few years, but we caught a lucky break with interest rates dropping this past year, so we aren’t paying as much in interest payments on the debt.”

The province’s debt is now estimated to be $82.8 billion for 2025-26.

Interest payments on the provincial debt are costing taxpayers about $2.9 billion, about a 12 per cent decrease from last year.

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Alberta

Alberta 2025 Budget Review from the Alberta Institute

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The government has just tabled its budget in the Legislature.

We were invited to the government’s advance briefing, which gave us a few hours to review the documents, ask questions, and analyze the numbers before the official release.

Now that the embargo has been lifted, we can share our thoughts with you.

However, this is just our preliminary analysis – we’ll have a more in-depth breakdown for you next week.

*****

The 2025/26 Budget is a projection for the next year – what the government expects will happen from April 1st, 2025 to March 31st, 2026.

It represents the government’s best estimate of future revenue and its plan for expenditures.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as a Budget figure.

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The actual final figures won’t be known until the 2025/26 Annual Report is released in the middle of next year.

Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, things don’t always go according to plan.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as an Actual figure.

Importantly, this means that the 2024/25 Annual Report isn’t ready yet, either.

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Therefore, in the meantime, the Q3 2025/26 Fiscal Update, which has figures up to December 31st, 2024, provides a forecast for the 2024/25 year.

The government looks at the actual results three quarters of the way through the previous year, and uses those figures to get the most accurate forecast on what will be the final result in the annual report, to help with estimating the 2025-26 year.

In the budget (and in this email) this type of figure is referred to as a Forecast figure.

*****

Accurately estimating, and tracking these three types of figures is a key part of good budgeting.

Sometimes, the economy performs better than expected, oil prices could be higher than initially forecast, or more revenue may come in from other sources.

But, other times, there’s a recession or a drop in oil prices, leading to lower-than-expected revenue.

On the spending side, governments sometimes find savings, keeping expenses lower than planned.

Alternatively, unexpected costs, disasters, or just governments being governments can also drive spending higher than budgeted.

The best way to manage this uncertainty is:

  1. Be conservative in estimating revenue.
  2. Only plan to spend what is reasonably expected to come in.
  3. Stick to that spending plan to avoid overspending.

By following these principles, the risk of an unexpected deficit is minimized.

And if revenue exceeds expectations or expenses come in lower, the surplus can be used to pay down debt or be returned to taxpayers.

On these three measures, this year’s budget gets a mixed grade.

*****

On the first point, the government has indeed made some pretty conservative estimates of revenue – including assuming an oil price several dollars below where it currently stands, and well below the previous year’s predictions.

The government has also assumed there will be some significant (though not catastrophic) effects from a potential trade war.

If oil prices end up higher, or Canada avoids a trade war with the US, then revenue could be significantly higher than planned.

Interestingly, this year’s budget looks very different depending on whether you compare it to last year’s budget, or the latest forecast.

This year’s budget revenue is $6.6 billion lower than what actually happened in last year’s forecast revenue.

But, this year’s budget revenue is actually $600 million higher than what was expected to happen in last year’s budget revenue.

In other words, if you compare this year’s budget to what the government expected to happen last year, revenue is up a small amount, but when you compare this year’s budget to what actually happened last year, revenue is down a lot.

*****

On the second point, unfortunately, the government doesn’t score so well.

Expenses are up quite a bit, even though revenue is expected to drop.

According to some measurements, expenditures are increasing slower than the combined rate of population growth and inflation – which is the goal the government set for itself in 2023.

But, when other expenses like contingencies for emergencies are included, or when expenses are measured in other ways, spending is increasing faster than that benchmark.

This year’s budget expenses are $4.4 billion higher than what was actually spent in last year’s forecast expenses.

But, this year’s budget expenses are $6.1 billion higher than what was expected to happen in last year’s budget expenses.

Perhaps the bigger question is why is expenditure increasing at all when revenue is expected to drop?

If there’s less money coming in, the government should really be using this as an opportunity to reduce overall expenditures.

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On the third point, we will – of course – have to wait and see what the final accounts look like next year!

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Before we wrap up this initial analysis, there’s one aspect of the budget that is likely to receive significant attention, and that is a tax cut.

Originally planned to be phased in over the next few years, a tax cut will now be back-dated to January 1st of this year.

Previously, any income below about $150,000 was subject to a 10% provincial tax, while incomes above $150,000 attract higher and higher tax rates of 12%, 13%, 14%, and 15% as incomes increase.

Under the new tax plan, incomes under $60,000 would only be taxed at 8%, with incomes between $60,000 and $150,000 still paying 10%, and incomes above $150,000 still paying 12%, 13%, 14%, and 15%, as before.

Some commentators are likely to question the wisdom of a tax cut that reduces revenue when the budget is going to be in deficit.

But, the reality is that this tax cut doesn’t actually cost much.

We’ll have the exact figures for you by next week, but suffice to say that it’s a pretty small portion of the overall deficit, and there’s a deficit because spending is up a lot, not because of a small tax cut.

In general, lower taxes are good, but we would have preferred the government work towards a lower, flatter tax instead.

The Alberta Advantage was built on Alberta’s unique flat tax system where everyone paid the same low flat tax (not the same amount, the same percentage!) and so wasn’t punished for succeeding.

Alberta needs a plan to get back to a low flat tax, and we will continue to advocate for this at the Alberta Institute.

Maybe we can do better than just returning to the old 10% flat tax, though?

Maybe we should aim for a flat tax of 8%, instead?

That’s it for today’s quick initial analysis.

In next week’s analysis, we’ll break down the pros and cons of these decisions and outline where we might have taken a different approach.

In the meantime, if you appreciate our work and want to support more of this kind of independent analysis of Alberta’s finances, please consider making a donation here:

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