Trudeau’s legacy includes larger tax burden for middle-class Canadians

On Monday outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Canadians he plans to resign, a reporter asked Trudeau to name his greatest accomplishments. In response, among other things, Trudeau said his government “reduced” taxes for the “middle class.” But this claim doesn’t withstand scrutiny.

After taking office in 2015, the Trudeau government reduced the second-lowest personal income tax rate from 22.0 per cent to 20.5 per cent—a change that was explicitly sold by Trudeau as a tax cut for the middle class. However, this change ultimately didn’t lower the amount of taxes paid by middle-class Canadians. Why?

Because the government simultaneously eliminated several tax credits—which are intended to reduce the amount of income taxes owed—including income splitting, the children’s fitness credit, children’s arts tax credit, and public transit tax credits. By eliminating these tax credits, the government helped simplify the tax system, which is a good thing, but it also raised the amount families pay in income taxes.

Consequently, most middle-income families now pay higher taxes. Specifically, a 2022 study published by the Fraser Institute found that nearly nine in 10 (86 per cent) middle-income families (earning household incomes between $84,625 and $118,007) experienced an increase in their federal personal income taxes as a result of the Trudeau government’s tax changes.

The study also found that other income groups experienced tax increases. Nearly three-quarters (73 per cent) of families with a household income between $54,495 and $84,624 paid higher taxes as a result of the tax changes. And across all income groups, 61 per cent of Canadian families faced higher personal income taxes than they did in 2015.

The Trudeau government also introduced a new top tax bracket on income over $200,000—which raised the top federal personal income tax rate from 29 per cent to 33 per cent—and other tax changes that increased the tax burden on Canadians including the recent capital gains tax hike. Prior to this hike, investors who sold capital assets (stocks, second homes, cottages, etc.) paid taxes on 50 per cent of the gain. Last year, the Trudeau government increased that share to 66.7 per cent for individual capital gains above $250,000 and all capital gains for corporations and trusts.

According to the Trudeau government, this change will only impact the “wealthiest” Canadians, but in fact it will impact many middle-class Canadians. For example, in 2018, half of all taxpayers who claimed more than $250,000 of capital gains in a year earned less than $117,592 in normal income. These include Canadians with modest annual incomes who own businesses, second homes or stocks, and who may choose to sell those assets once or infrequently in their lifetimes (when they retire, for example). These Canadians will feel the real-world effects of Trudeau’s capital gains tax hike.

While reflecting on his tenure, Prime Minister Trudeau said he was proud that his government reduced taxes for middle-class Canadians. In reality, taxes for middle-class families have increased since he took office. That’s a major part of his legacy as prime minister.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Related Topics:#FraserInstitute #GradyMunro #JakeFuss CanadaTaxes PersonalIncomeTaxRate TrudeauLegacy

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New climate plan simply hides the costs to Canadians

Published on February 20, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Kenneth P. Green

Mark Carney, who wants to be your next prime minister, recently released his plan for Canada’s climate policies through 2035. It’s a sprawling plan (climate plans always are), encompassing industrial and manufacturing emissions, vehicle emissions, building emissions, appliance emissions, cross-border emissions, more “green” energy, more “heat pumps” replacing HVAC, more electric vehicle (EV) subsidies, more subsidies to consumers, more subsidies to companies, and more charging stations for the EV revolution that does not seem to be happening. And while the plan seeks to eliminate the “consumer carbon tax” on “fuels, such as gasoline, natural gas, diesel, home heating oil, etc.” it’s basically Trudeau’s climate plans on steroids.

Consider this. Instead of paying the “consumer carbon tax” directly, under the Carney plan Canadians will pay more—but less visibly. The plan would “tighten” (i.e. raise) the carbon tax on “large industrial emitters” (you know, the people who make the stuff you buy) who will undoubtedly pass some or all of that cost to consumers. Second, the plan wants to force those same large emitters to somehow fund subsidy programs for consumer purchases to offset the losses to Canadians currently profiting from consumer carbon tax rebates. No doubt the costs of those subsidy programs will also be folded into the costs of the products that flow from Canada’s “large industrial emitters,” but the cause of rising prices will be less visible to the general public. And the plan wants more consumer home energy audits and retrofit programs, some of the most notoriously wasteful climate policies ever developed.

But the ironic icing on this plan’s climate cake is the desire to implement tariffs (excuse me, a “carbon border adjustment mechanism”) on U.S. products in association with “key stakeholders and international partners to ensure fairness for Canadian industries.” Yes, you read that right, the plan seeks to kick off a carbon-emission tariff war with the United States, not only for Canada’s trade, but to bring in European allies to pile on. And this, all while posturing in high dudgeon over Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on Canadian products based on perceived injustices in the U.S./Canada trade relationship.

To recap, while grudgingly admitting that the “consumer carbon tax” is wildly unpopular, poorly designed and easily dispensable in Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction efforts, the Carney plan intends to double down on all of the economically damaging climate policies of the last 10 years.

But that doubling down will be more out of sight and out of mind to Canadians. Instead of directly seeing how they pay for Canada’s climate crusade, Canadians will see prices rise for goods and services as government stamps climate mandates on Canada’s largest manufacturers and producers, and those costs trickle down onto consumer pocketbooks.

In this regard, the plan is truly old school—historically, governments and bureaucrats preferred to hide their taxes inside of obscure regulations and programs invisible to the public. Canadians will also see prices rise as tariffs imposed on imported American goods (and potentially services) force American businesses to raise prices on goods that Canadians purchase.

The Carney climate plan is a return to the hidden European-style technocratic/bureaucratic/administrative mindset that has led Canada’s economy into record underperformance. Hopefully, whether Carney becomes our next prime minister or not, this plan becomes another dead letter pack of political promises.

Kenneth P. Green

Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

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Government debt burden increasing across Canada

Published on February 20, 2025

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Tegan Hill, Jake Fuss and Spencer Gudewill

As governments across Canada unveil their 2025 budgets, outlining their tax and spending plans for the upcoming fiscal year, they have an opportunity to reverse the trend of deficits and increasing debt that has reigned in recent years.

Indeed, budget deficits, which fuel debt accumulation, have become a serious fiscal challenge for the federal and many provincial governments, primarily due to high levels of government spending. Since 2007/08—the final fiscal year before the financial crisis—combined federal and provincial net debt (inflation-adjusted) has nearly doubled from $1.2 trillion to a projected $2.3 trillion in 2024/25. And you can’t blame COVID, as combined federal and provincial net debt (inflation-adjusted) increased by nearly $600 billion between 2007/08 and 2019/20.

Federal and provincial net debt (inflation-adjusted) per person has increased in every province since 2007/08. As shown in the below chart, Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest combined (federal and provincial) debt per person ($68,516) in 2024/25 followed by Quebec ($60,565) and Ontario ($60,456). In contrast, Alberta has the lowest combined debt per person ($41,236) in the country. Combined federal and provincial net debt represents the total provincial net debt, and the federal portion allocated to each of the provinces based on a five-year average (2020-2024) of their population as a share of Canada’s total population.

The combined federal and total provincial debt-to-GDP ratio, an important fiscal indicator that compares debt with the size of the overall economy, is projected to reach 75.2 per cent in 2024/25. By comparison, the ratio was 53.2 per cent in 2007/08. A rising debt-to-GDP ratio indicates government debt has grown at an unsustainable rate (in other words, debt levels are growing faster than the economy). Among the provinces, the combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio is highest in Nova Scotia (92.0 per cent) and lowest in Alberta (42.2 per cent). Again, the federal debt portion is allocated to provinces based on a five-year average (2020-2024) of their population as a share of Canada’s total population.

Interest payments are a major consequence of debt accumulation. Governments must make interest payments on their debt similar to households that must pay interest on mortgages, vehicles or credit card spending. When taxpayer money goes towards interest payments, there’s less money available for tax cuts or government programs such as health care and education.

Interest on government debt (federal and provincial) costs each Canadian at least $1,930 in 2024/25. The amount, however, varies by province. Combined interest costs per person are highest in Newfoundland and Labrador ($3,453) and lowest in Alberta ($1,930). Similar to net debt, combined federal and provincial interest costs are represented by the total of the provincial and federal portion with the federal portion allocated to each of provinces based on a five-year average (2020-2024) of their population as a share of Canada’s total population.

Debt accumulation comes with consequences for everyday Canadians as more and more taxpayer money flows towards interest payments rather than tax relief or programs and services. This budget season, federal and provincial governments should develop long-term plans to meaningfully address the growing debt problem in Canada.