Automotive
Trudeau’s electric vehicle mandate could cause Canada’s power grid to collapse, analysis shows
From LifeSiteNews
Not only would the need to generate more electric power skyrocket, but prices and taxes would soar for consumers, a Fraser Institute study found.
A noted fiscally conservative think tank warned that a proposed federal mandate from the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to ban the sale of new gasoline/diesel-only powered cars after 2035 and allow electric-only sales is an unrealistic fantasy that would cause massive chaos by threatening to collapse the nation’s power grids.
“Requiring all new vehicle sales in Canada to be electric in just 11 years means the provinces need to substantially increase their power generation capabilities, and adding the equivalent of 10 new mega-dams or 13 new gas plants in such a short timeline isn’t realistic or feasible,” said G. Cornelis van Kooten, a Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of “Failure to Charge: A Critical Look at Canada’s EV Policy.”
“Canadians need to know just how much additional electricity is going to be required in order to meet Ottawa’s electric vehicle mandate, because its impact on the provinces — and taxpayers and rate payers — will be significant.”
Van Kooten’s in-depth analysis of the impending electric vehicle (EV) mandate was released March 14 and estimates that to meet the 2035 target national electric generation would need to go up some 15.3% in only 11 years, which is a monumental task.
This would mean building no less than 10 new mega hydro dams nationwide, or at least 13 new large natural gas plants, according to Van Kooten. For those pushing so-called “green” power, that would mean some 5,000 new wind turbines, which all must still be backed up by natural gas peaker plants because of their unreliability when the wind is not blowing.
Given the length of time it takes to build a natural gas plant due to red tape, costs, and other factors, van Kooten observed that “the major obstacle relates to the likelihood of constructing sufficient power generating capacity to meet the anticipated demand EVs would impose on electricity grids.”
“The real-world situation is not as easy as merely replacing current ICE vehicles with EVs, and there are many obstacles to be overcome on the path of electrifying the personal vehicle fleets within Canada,” he said.
“The type of electricity that goes into the grid would also be a big consideration when switching over to EVs, as jurisdictions will need to increase their electricity production capabilities with green sources that meet the additional hourly load requirements and can be employed quickly to balance intermittent renewable energy sources.”
Van Kooten’s study looks at how much extra electricity will be required in all of Canada’s biggest provinces, Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec to meet the 2035 EV mandate.
The Fraser Institute, for context, observed that “It took approximately 10 years to plan and pass environmental regulations, and an additional decade” to build British Columbia’s new hydroelectric Site C dam.
Trudeau plans to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars after 2035. The EU (European Union) also has an EV mandate in place for the same year.
Canadian Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced just before Christmas the “Electric Vehicle Availability Standard.” This is a plan that will mandate that all new cars and trucks by 2035 be electric, which would in effect ban the sale of new gasoline- or diesel-only powered vehicles after that year.
The reality is that electric cars cost thousands more to make and buy, are not suited to Canada’s cold climate, offer poor range and long charging times (especially in cold weather), and have batteries that take tremendous resources to make and are hard to recycle.
Just over a week ago, LifeSiteNews reported that a 2022 study found that electric vehicles pollute at a rate far higher than their gasoline or diesel-powered counterparts.
Not all Canadian provinces are on board Trudeau’s EV dictate
In January, LifeSiteNews reported that Alberta’s Minister of Energy criticized the federally funded Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) for publishing a report stating that electric cars are better able to handle cold weather than gas-powered ones, all at the same time an extreme cold snap gripped much of western Canada and nearly caused Alberta’s power grid to collapse due to its increased reliance on so-called renewable energy.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has promised that she intends to fight with “everything” at her disposal what she called an “unconstitutional” new federal government EV mandate as well as a net-zero power generation, which if implemented would lead to guaranteed power outages.
She noted that when it comes to Trudeau’s EV mandate, “Ottawa is trying to force increased demands on the electricity grid while simultaneously weakening Alberta’s and other provinces’ grids through their federal electricity regulations.”
Trudeau’s EV mandates have also been called out by the automotive industry in Canada. The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association said in response to the new EV mandate that forcing people to buy EVs will “disproportionately impact households living in rural and northern communities that may have lower access to public charging infrastructure.”
Automotive
Biden-Harris Admin’s EV Coercion Campaign Hasn’t Really Gone All That Well
From the Daily Caller News Foundation
The future direction of federal energy policy related to the transportation sector is a key question that will be determined in one way or another by the outcome of the presidential election. What remains unclear is the extent of change that a Trump presidency would bring.
Given that Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk is a major supporter of former President Donald Trump, it seems unlikely a Trump White House would move to try to end the EV subsidies and tax breaks included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Those provisions, of course, constitute the “carrot” end of the Biden-Harris carrot-and-stick suite of policies designed to promote the expansion of EVs in the U.S. market.
The “stick” side of that approach comes in the form of stricter tailpipe emissions rules and higher fleet auto-mileage requirements imposed on domestic carmakers. While a Harris administration would likely seek to impose even more federal pressure through such command-and-control regulatory measures, a Trump administration would likely be more inclined to ease them.
But doing that is difficult and time-consuming and much would depend on the political will of those Trump appoints to lead the relevant agencies and departments.
Those and other coercive EV-related policies imposed during the Biden-Harris years have been designed to move the U.S. auto industry directionally to meet the administration’s stated goal of having EVs make up a third of the U.S. light duty fleet by 2030. The suite of policies does not constitute a hard mandate per se but is designed to produce a similar pre-conceived outcome.
It is the sort of heavy-handed federal effort to control markets that Trump has spoken out against throughout his first term in office and his pursuit of a second term.
A new report released this week by big energy data and analytics firm Enverus seems likely to influence prospective Trump officials to take a more favorable view of the potential for EVs to grow as a part of the domestic transportation fleet. Perhaps the most surprising bit of news in the study, conducted by Enverus subsidiary Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), is a projection that EVs are poised to be lower-priced than their equivalent gas-powered models as soon as next year, due to falling battery costs.
“Battery costs have fallen rapidly, with 2024 cell costs dipping below $100/kWh. We predict from [2025] forward EVs will be more affordable than their traditional, internal combustible engine counterparts,” Carson Kearl, analyst at EIR, says in the release. Kearl further says that EIR expects the number of EVs on the road in the US to “exceed 40 million (20%) by 2035 and 80 million (40%) by 2040.”
The falling battery costs have been driven by a collapse in lithium prices. Somewhat ironically, that price collapse has in turn been driven by the failure of EV expansion to meet the unrealistic goal-setting mainly by western governments, including the United States. Those same cause-and-effect dynamics would most likely mean that prices for lithium, batteries and EVs would rise again if the rapid market penetration projected by EIR were to come to fruition.
In the U.S. market, the one and only certainty of all of this is that something is going to have to change, and soon. On Monday, Ford Motor Company reported it lost another $1.2 billion in its Ford Model e EV division in the 3rd quarter, bringing its accumulated loss for the first 9 months of 2024 to $3.7 billion.
Energy analyst and writer Robert Bryce points out in his Substack newsletter that that Model e loss is equivalent to the $3.7 billion profit Ford has reported this year in its Ford Blue division, which makes the company’s light duty internal combustion cars and trucks.
While Tesla is doing fine, with recovering profits and a rising stock price amid the successful launch of its CyberTruck and other new products, other pure-play EV makers in the United States are struggling to survive. Ford’s integrated peers GM and Stellantis have also struggled with the transition to more EV model-heavy fleets.
None of this is sustainable, and a recalibration of policy is in order. Next Tuesday’s election will determine which path the redirection of policy takes.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
Automotive
Trudeau’s new vehicle ban is a non starter
From the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Author: Kris Sims
The Trudeau government’s ban on new gas and diesel vehicles is a nonstarter for three powerful reasons.
First, Canadians want to drive gas-powered minivans and diesel pickups.
Second, Canada does not have the electrical power to fuel these battery-powered cars.
Third, Canadians do not have the money to build the power-generating stations that would be needed to power these government-mandated vehicles.
Let’s start on the showroom floor.
The Trudeau government is banning the sale of new gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035.
In about 10 years’ time, Canadians will not be allowed to buy a new vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine because the government will forbid it.
Canadians disagree with this.
The Canadian Taxpayers Federation released Leger polling showing 59 per cent of Canadians oppose the federal government’s ban on new gas and diesel vehicles.
Among those who are decided on the issue, 67 per cent of Canadians, and majorities in every demographic, oppose the Trudeau government’s ban.
Now let’s look under the hood.
Canada does not have the electricity to charge these battery-powered cars. The government hasn’t presented any plan to pay for the power plants, transmission lines and charging stations for these government-mandated vehicles.
That leaves a big question: How much will this cost taxpayers?
Canada’s vehicle transition could cost up to $300 billion by 2040 to expand the electrical grid, according to a report for Natural Resources Canada.
Let’s look at why this will cost so much.
The average Canadian household uses about 10,861 kWh in electricity per year. The average electric car uses about 4,500 kWh of energy per year.
The average household’s electricity use would jump by about 40 per cent if they bought one EV and charged it at home.
Canada is home to 24 million cars and light trucks that run on gasoline and diesel, according to Statistics Canada.
If all those vehicles were powered by electricity and batteries, that fleet would use about 108 million mWh of power every year.
For context, one large CANDU nuclear reactor at the Darlington nuclear plant in Ontario generates about 7,750,000 mWh of power per year.
Canada would require about 14 of these reactors to power all of those electric cars.
Building a large nuclear reactor costs about $12.5 billion.
That’s a price tag of about $175 billion just for all the power plants. The Natural Resources report estimates the transition to electric vehicles could cost up to $300 billion in total, when new charging stations and power lines are included.
Who would be paying that tab? Normal Canadians through higher taxes and power bills.
Canadians cannot afford the cost of these mandatory electric vehicles because they’re broke.
Canadians are broke largely because of high taxes and high inflation, both driven by the Trudeau government’s wasteful spending.
About half of Canadians say they are within $200 of not being able to make the minimum payments on their bills each month. That’s also known as barely scraping by.
Food banks are facing record demand, with a sharp increase in working families needing help. That means parents who are holding down jobs are still depending on donated jars of peanut butter to feed their kids.
Rubbing salt into the wound, the federal government also put taxpayers on the hook for about $30 billion to multinational corporations like Honda, Volkswagen, Stellantis and Northvolt to build EV battery factories.
The roadside sobriety test is complete, and the Trudeau government is blowing a fail on this policy.
Canadians are opposed to the Trudeau government banning the sale of new gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.
Canada does not have the electricity to charge these battery-powered cars.
Canadians don’t have the money to build the new power plants, transmission lines and charging stations these vehicles would demand.
It’s time to tow this ban on new gas and diesel vehicles to the scrapyard.
Franco Terrazzano is the Federal Director and Kris Sims is the Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
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