Trudeau’s Economic Mismanagement Exposed: GDP Report Reveals Alarming Decline in Canadian Prosperity

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Dan Knight

The latest “Gross Domestic Product, Income, and Expenditure: Third Quarter 2024” report highlights six consecutive declines in GDP per capita & collapsing business investment

Good evening my fellow Canadians, and welcome to the final chapter of Canada as a thriving economy, brought to you courtesy of Justin Trudeau. The latest GDP report isn’t just a spreadsheet of bad news—it’s a grim look at the devastation Trudeau has unleashed on Canada’s economy.

Here’s what they won’t tell you: while Trudeau prances around on the world stage, preaching about climate change and “equity,” the average Canadian is getting poorer. GDP per capita—one of the most telling measures of prosperity—has now declined for six consecutive quarters, hitting levels not seen since 2017. Let that sink in. Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canadians are worse off today than they were seven years ago.

Canada’s GDP Growth: A Sluggish Economy Falling Behind

The latest figures from Statistics Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, Income, and Expenditure: Third Quarter 2024 report show an economy struggling to find its footing. Real GDP grew by 0.3% in Q3 2024, a slowdown from the 0.5% growth in the first and second quarters of the year. On an annual basis, GDP growth for 2023 was a modest 1.1%, further highlighting Canada’s weak economic momentum.

In real terms, Canada’s GDP as of Q3 2024 stands at $2,419,572 million (chained 2017 dollars). While the economy continues to expand, this growth pales in comparison to the nation’s surging population.

GDP Per Capita Declines: A Warning Sign for Canadians

Canada’s economic growth is not keeping pace with its rapid population expansion. In Q3 2024, GDP per capita—arguably the most important measure of economic health—declined by 0.4%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly drop. With a staggering 3.2% population growth in 2023, Canada’s economy cannot sustain the same level of prosperity for its citizens.

Current GDP per capita is estimated at ~$54,000, down from its pre-pandemic high of ~$58,100 in 2017, and 2.5% below 2019 levels. To return to its long-term trend, GDP per capita would need to grow at an ambitious 1.7% annually for the next decade, a rate well above the recent average of just 1.1% per year since 1981.

Historical Context: Long-Term Prosperity Eroded

The report shows a troubling trajectory in inflation-adjusted GDP per capita over decades:

1981: ~$36,900
2017: ~$58,100
2024: ~$54,000 (estimated due to consecutive declines).

Despite Canada’s resource wealth and economic potential, GDP per capita remains 7% below its historical growth trend, signaling systemic productivity and investment issues.

Key Drivers of GDP Growth in Q3 2024

The Q3 2024 report highlights the components influencing GDP growth:

Household Spending: +0.9%
Government Spending: +1.1%
Business Investment in Machinery and Equipment: -7.8%
Exports: -0.3%
Imports: -0.1%

While household and government expenditures provided some lift, the steep decline in business investment—down nearly 8%—and weaker exports reveal structural weaknesses in Canada’s economic model.

A Warning for the Future

These numbers tell a grim story: Canada’s economic growth, when adjusted for its population explosion, is failing to provide real benefits to its citizens. GDP per capita declines, stagnant productivity, and plummeting business investment highlight the challenges ahead. Without dramatic improvements in productivity, competitiveness, and fiscal policy, Canada’s long-term economic prospects remain precarious.

Trudeau’s Population Bomb

In 2023, Canada’s population grew by a jaw-dropping 3.2%, adding over 1.27 million people—the size of Calgary—in just one year. Trudeau’s open-door immigration policy is out of control. But here’s the kicker: the economy isn’t keeping up. GDP growth is crawling at 0.3%, while GDP per capita—the number that actually reflects living standards—has fallen 2.5% below pre-pandemic levels.

What does this mean? Trudeau is creating a country where there are more people, but less wealth to go around. He’s importing voters for his political base while ignoring the basic economics of supply and demand. More people mean more pressure on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure—all of which are already in crisis. Trudeau gets the photo ops, and Canadians get poorer.

Productivity? What’s That?

Here’s the real scandal: Canada’s productivity is collapsing, and Trudeau couldn’t care less. Business investment in machinery and equipment—a cornerstone of economic growth—dropped 7.8% in Q3 2024. That’s not a blip. It’s part of a long-term trend.

Under Trudeau, Canada has become hostile to business. With punishing taxes, endless red tape, and policies designed to appease radical activists, companies have stopped investing. They’re pulling back because they see no future in a country run by a trust-fund prime minister who treats the economy like his personal virtue-signaling playground.

Exports Collapse, Government Spending Soars

Exports fell 0.3% this quarter, after a 1.4% drop the quarter before. That’s Canada losing its competitive edge, plain and simple. While Trudeau waxes poetic about “green transitions,” other countries are eating Canada’s lunch.

Meanwhile, Trudeau’s solution to every problem is predictable: throw money at it. Government spending rose 1.1% in Q3 2024, marking the third consecutive quarterly increase. But this isn’t investment—it’s waste. It’s billions spent on flashy programs that do nothing to address Canada’s fundamental economic problems.

The OECD Warning Trudeau Ignores

Here’s a fact Trudeau won’t tweet about: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that Canada will have the lowest GDP per capita growth of all member countries through 2060. That’s Trudeau’s legacy: turning Canada into the slowest-growing economy in the developed world.

This isn’t just incompetence—it’s deliberate. Trudeau’s agenda isn’t about making Canada prosperous; it’s about centralizing power. His policies crush the middle class, drive businesses out, and create dependence on government handouts.

The Final Verdict

Justin Trudeau has managed to take one of the most resource-rich, opportunity-filled countries in the world and drive it into economic stagnation. He’s turned Canada into a welfare state for the many and a playground for the elite. GDP per capita is falling, productivity is collapsing, and the future looks bleak for ordinary Canadians.

Let’s be clear: Trudeau doesn’t care. As long as he’s jet-setting to global conferences, virtue-signaling about climate justice, and securing his legacy as the darling of the global elite, the suffering of everyday Canadians is irrelevant to him.

Canada deserves better. It deserves leadership that values hard work, economic freedom, and the dignity of a prosperous nation. And until Trudeau is gone, don’t expect any of that.

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Related Topics:#DanKnight #TheOppositionNewsNetwork CanadaSluggishEconomy GDPDeclines GDPPerCapitaDeclines GDPReport TrudeauMismanagement

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Ottawa’s GST break and rebate cheques amount to bad policy

Published on November 29, 2024

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

On Thursday, the House of Commons passed legislation (tabled by the Trudeau government) that would temporarily suspend the federal Goods and Services Tax (GST) on select items from December 14 to February 15 at an estimated cost of $1.6 billion, as part of the government’s “more money in your pocket” plan. The legislation now goes to the Senate for approval.

The government has delayed a separate proposal—to give Canadians $250 rebate cheques—in light of NDP demands to expand eligibility to include seniors. The original proposal would have sent cheques to an estimated 18.7 million Canadians (who worked in 2023 and earned $150,000 or less) at a cost of $4.7 billion. While aimed at all Canadians, this proposal is eerily similar to the recent move by Ontario’s Ford government, which plans to send $200 cheques to Ontarians. And again, it’s just bad policy.

Why?

Consider this. During the recent discussion about increasing Old Age Security payments by 10 per cent for seniors aged 65 to 74, former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said, “The last thing that we need to be spending money on at this point in time is boosting consumption for relatively well-off people.” This critique also applies to the Trudeau government’s $250 rebate cheques, which would go to many well-off Canadians. Indeed, based on the government’s original proposal, a couple earning a combined household income of up to $300,000 could receive these cheques.

Moreover, because onetime payouts and temporary tax breaks don’t incentivize people to work and invest, they don’t help raise living standards. But permanent tax cuts, such as reducing personal income tax rates or lowering capital gains taxes, would provide a stronger incentive for Canadians to work more and make investments because they get to keep more of the money they earn. That would help drive economic growth, create jobs and provide more economic opportunities for workers across the income spectrum.

In fact, the Trudeau government’s plan may actually hurt economic growth in the long run. The government is expected to run budget deficits for the foreseeable future, and will likely borrow the billions needed to pay for the GST break and $250 cheques. In other words, this “relief” package will likely increase the federal deficit in 2024 and potentially 2025. By borrowing more money, the government will increase the tax burden on future generations of Canadians who ultimately must pay off today’s debt. And just as lower taxes improve economic incentives, this higher future tax burden will worsen incentives and likely stifle economic growth and reduce living standards.

Don’t be deceived. While it’s nice to get a cheque in the mail and have a couple months free of the GST for some items, the Trudeau government’s “more money in your pocket” plan is bad policy.

Jake Fuss

Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute

Grady Munro

Policy Analyst, Fraser Institute

Business

Trump ‘tariffs’ threat should hasten trade liberalization among provinces

Published on November 29, 2024

Todayville

From the Fraser Institute

By Jake Fuss and Grady Munro

To much fanfare, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imported products coming into the United States from Canada. The premiers will meet with Prime Minister Trudeau this week to discuss the situation and possible next steps. While the discussion will no doubt focus on trade with the U.S. and other countries, they should also consider trade reform within our national border.

Indeed, provinces and territories have considerable autonomy to set rules for trade with other Canadian jurisdictions. These rules (or barriers) include different inspection and labelling requirements for agricultural goods, different trucking regulations, different standards and certifications for professionals, provincial monopolies over alcohol distribution, and more.

As with international barriers, trade barriers within Canada inhibit the free flow of goods, services and labour between provinces, which reduces productivity and increases prices. In other words, Canadians pay the price for our interprovincial trade barriers. And the costs are significant. Research suggests that interprovincial trade barriers add between 7.8 per cent and 14.5 per cent to the price of goods and services including groceries and other necessities.

More broadly, according to a 2020 study published by the Fraser Institute, interprovincial trade barriers cost the Canadian economy more than $32 billion per year or approximately 1.4 per cent of GDP. According to a TD report released last month, a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff by the U.S. (and the subsequent retaliation by Canada on U.S. imports) would reduce Canada’s GDP by approximately 2.4 percentage points over two years, compared to current baseline projections. Therefore, if Canadian policymakers removed interprovincial trade barriers they could mitigate much of the economic harm caused by potential new U.S. tariffs.

What would those changes look like?

While the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA)—a 2017 agreement between the federal government and all provincial and territorial governments—was an important step toward greater trade liberalization in Canada, the Trudeau government should propose a policy of “mutual recognition” so that any item that meets the regulatory requirements of a single province or territory automatically satisfies the requirements of another.

And while the federal government should promote free trade within Canada, provincial and territorial governments should also reduce barriers. In addition to negotiating agreements among themselves (such as the New West Partnership Trade Agreement between British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) provinces can unilaterally eliminate self-imposed trade barriers (as Alberta did in 2019 with grazing permits for livestock and other reforms).

Trade is fundamental to economic activity, opportunity and prosperity for Canadians from coast to coast. In light of Trump’s aggressive trade posture, now more than ever the federal government and the provinces and territories should work together to remove interprovincial trade barriers to mitigate any economic damage from a hostile trade regime south of the border.