National
Thoughts on the emergence of Pierre Poilievre from political writer Paul Wells
Posted with permission from author Paul Wells
What Poilievre is up to
We’re in an odd world where most of the journalistic coverage of Pierre Poilievre is critical, but he might yet become Prime Minister. The week’s big Abacus poll suggests this may simply be because more and more people are done with Justin Trudeau. But we’re still missing a theory of Pierre Poilievre. Since Shannon Proudfoot’s profile of him for a prominent food magazine last year (note: Shannon didn’t write or like the headline), there’ve actually been fewer attempts to figure the guy out as he gets closer to an election.
Here’s one thing to chew on. In early 2022, two weeks after Poilievre announced his candidacy for the Conservative leadership, this essay appeared in The Hub, a good online journal of mostly conservative-leaning opinion. It was by Ben Woodfinden, “a doctoral candidate and political theorist at McGill University.” Woodfinden has since got hired as Poilievre’s communications director, which suggests that if there’s anyone who thought Woodfinden had Poilievre figured out, it’s Poilievre.
What did he write? Woodfinden’s essay noted that Poilievre had already been talking about “gatekeepers” who make the rules that stifle initiative and progress for ordinary people. He encouraged Poilievre to keep going. The “gatekeeper” talk could appeal to a few different corners of today’s conservative movement — small-government conservatives, populists and new Canadians who feel frustrated in their attempts to get ahead. Woodfinden writes:
“The elites in this message are essentially political elites whose actions hold back the so-called ‘little guy’—ordinary Canadians who just want to own a home and make a living. There is undoubtedly something of a populist moment in the Canadian right at the moment, and this is a particular framing that can resonate with the Tory base whilst not giving in to the darker and more sinister populist temptation.
And:
“Put all this together, and Poilievre may have the makings of a perfect storm message. It scratches the itch of different parts of the conservative coalition, and it has the potential makings of a winning electoral coalition that could propel the Poilievre-led Conservatives to government. Whilst appealing to both small government and populist types in the conservative movement, it also potentially offers a populist message that appeals to people who feel left behind or screwed over in Canada today, with ire aimed at a clique of gatekeepers who frustrate the goals and aspirations of ordinary Canadians.”
I’ll let you read the rest if you like. Woodfinden’s essay is here. Not having written it I offer no warranty for it. But I’ve always found it worthwhile to consider what politicians think they’re doing, rather than just what their worst critics think they’re doing. Maybe this piece will be illuminating.
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Paul Wells
Politics and culture as though they mattered.
National
Free Speech and Inflation top US Voter Concerns; Climate Change a Non-starter according to Polls
News release from the Friends of Science
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A new poll from FIRE, championed on X by Elon Musk reports that free speech is a critical US voter issue on par with economic issues; climate change is a non-starter, far down the list, says Friends of Science Society. Climate change has lost steam among Canadian voters; a major push-back against the costly carbon tax is happening nation-wide. CALGARY, AB, Oct. 31, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ — On Oct. 24, 2024, Elon Musk on “X” wrote: “Major vibe shift” as FIRE, Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression reported their recent poll results with free speech ranked higher than health care, crime and immigration; climate change was second from the last of twelve issues, says Friends of Science Society. The poll was conducted by the prestigious National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago. Even a September 9, 2024 Pew Research Centre poll of the ‘most important’ voter issues had climate change last on the list of 10. It appears that one of the benefits of Elon Musk’s take-over of Twitter, now “X,” has led to an opening up of the debate on climate change and other topics, to the point where leaked documents show that the Centre for Countering Digital Hate out of the UK specifically targeted him and his platform to be shut down prior to the US election, as reported by the Express Tribune, Oct. 22, 2024. People are now asking “What if CO2 is Good For You?” Climate fearmongers on “X” are met with a barrage of scientific papers and biting memes pushing back, says Friends of Science. On November 11, 2024, just 6 days after the US election, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), countries signatory to the UNFCCC, begins in Baku, Azerbaijan, a petro-state. This year’s focus is on climate finance. S&P Global reports that the target for a climate fund for developing nations is $1 trillion dollars while imposing more stringent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) emissions reductions, especially in Europe and other Western industrialized nations where that money is expected to come from. Robert Lyman is a former Canadian federal public servant of 27 years, diplomat of 10 years, and a retired energy economist, predicted in June of 2024 that COP29 will fail, as have all the previous COP conferences. Friends of Science Society issued a report by Robert Lyman titled “Europe on the Brink” which summarizes key points in Prof. Samuel Furfari’s analysis of Mario Draghi’s report on European Competitiveness. Both Europe and Canada seem to be on a climate-policy driven path toward economic destruction, thanks to their commitments to NetZero goals, says Friends of Science Society. Friends of Science Society’s analysis of “Getting to Net Zero” shows that poverty, degrowth and deprivation await citizens. Video explainer here. For most Canadians, the climate change has fallen from public interest with a September 2023 poll showing a 93% concern for economic issues, only a 7% concern for climate change. A more recent poll using different metrics showed 70% of Canadians are focussed on immediate concerns like housing and the cost of living. Provinces are pushing back on the burdensome carbon tax. As reported in the Western Standard of Oct. 30, 2024, David Suzuki and 4 other broadcast colleagues want CBC, the national broadcaster, to make climate emergency a daily news issue. Author Seth Klein proposes a War Measures Act style economy; much like that outlined in the US House Judiciary’s report on the “Climate Cartel” which is reviewing Mark Carney’s “GFANZ.” Friends of Science Society rejects their climate catastrophe activism and rebuts their claims in this video. Canada’s Climate Action Network (CAN-RAC) in “Paving the Way” is pushing for an emissions cap in Alberta, and for COP29 a phase-out of fossil fuels, an increase in foreign spending on climate finance and a tripling of renewables. The manufacturing of renewables requires vast quantities of oil, natural gas and coal, as explained in IEEE Spectrum’s publication of Vaclav Smil’s “To Get Wind Power You Need Oil,” thus these groups are asking the impossible, says Friends of Science Society. Regarding Canada’s proposed emissions cap, Robert Lyman summarizes a Deloitte report in “A Dire Assessment,” showing that “If production is curtailed as Deloitte projects, GDP in Alberta’s oil and gas sector would be $16.2 billion (20%) lower compared to the baseline in 2040. In the rest of Canada, GDP in the sector is projected to be $2.7 billion lower by 2040 compared to the baseline.” |
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About:Friends of Science Society is an independent group of earth, atmospheric and solar scientists, engineers, and citizens who are celebrating its 22nd year of offering climate science insights. After a thorough review of a broad spectrum of literature on climate change, Friends of Science Society has concluded that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide (CO2). |
From the Fraser Institute
By Matthew Lau
The Trudeau government has demonstrated consistently that its policies—including higher capital gains taxes and a hostile regulatory environment—are entirely at odds with what investors want to see. Corporate head offices are fleeing Canada and business investment has declined significantly since the Trudeau Liberals came to power.
According to the Trudeau government’s emissions reduction plan, “putting a price on pollution is widely recognized as the most efficient means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” Fair enough, but a reasonable person might wonder why the same politicians who insist a price mechanism (i.e. carbon tax) is the most efficient policy recently announced relatively inefficient measures such “sustainable investment guidelines” and “mandatory climate disclosures” for large private companies.
The government claims that imposing mandatory climate disclosures will “attract more private capital into Canada’s largest corporations and ensure Canadian businesses can continue to effectively compete as the world races towards net-zero.” That is nonsense. How would politicians Ottawa know better than business owners about how their businesses should attract capital? If making climate disclosures were a good way to help businesses attract capital, the businesses that want to attract capital would make such disclosures voluntarily. There would be no need for a government mandate.
The government has not yet launched the regulatory process for the climate disclosures, so we don’t know exactly how onerous it will be, but one thing is for sure—the disclosures will be expensive and unnecessary, imposing useless costs onto businesses and investors without any measurable benefit, further discouraging investment in Canada. Again, if the disclosures were useful and worthwhile to investors, businesses seeking to attract investment would make them voluntarily.
Even the government’s own announcement casts doubt that increasing business investment is the likely outcome of mandatory climate disclosures. While the government says it’s “sending a clear signal to corporate boards and shareholders, at home and around the world, that Canada is their trusted partner for putting private capital to work in the race to net-zero,” most investors are not looking to put private capital to work to combat climate change. Most investors want to put their capital to work to earn a good financial return, after adjusting for the risk of the investment.
This latest announcement should come as no surprise. The Trudeau government has demonstrated consistently that its policies—including higher capital gains taxes and a hostile regulatory environment—are entirely at odds with what investors want to see. Corporate head offices are fleeing Canada and business investment has declined significantly since the Trudeau Liberals came to power. Capital per worker in Canada is declining due to weak business investment since 2015, and new capital per-Canadian worker in 2024 is barely half of what it is in the United States.
It’s also fair to ask, in the face of these onerous polices—where are the environmental benefits? The government says its climate disclosures are needed for Canada to progress to net-zero emissions and “uphold the Paris climate target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” but its net-zero targets are neither feasible nor realistic and the economics literature does not support the 1.5 degrees target.
Finally, when announcing the new climate disclosures, Trudeau Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said they are an important stepping stone to a cleaner economy, which is a “major economic opportunity.” Yet even the Canada Energy Regulator (a federal agency) projects net-zero policies would reduce real GDP per capita, increase inflation of consumer prices and reduce residential space (in other words, reduce living standards).
A major economic opportunity that will increase business investment? Surely not—mandatory climate disclosures will only further reduce our standard of living and impose useless costs onto business and investors, with the sure effect of reducing investment.
Author:
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